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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 8, 2015

Editor’s Note: There appears to be some significant weather issues this evening, so keep an eye on this closely and try to avoid some players that may get rained out — especially pitchers.

Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation for Wednesday’s 13-game slate on DraftKings as well as the best teams to use for stacks. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, some information about the quality of his opponent, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Like Tuesday, there are no pitchers on the bump that exceed a DraftKings salary of $10,000. This should provide some opportunities for daily fantasy players to bust out their wallets and spend a bit more on hitters.

The most expensive hurler for the slate is Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann who is in play at home against the Metropolitans. Zimmermann comes in as one of the bigger favorites (-150) with one of the lowest run lines (6.5) on the day according to Vegas. The right-hander will find his way into some of my cash lineups, but not may not be in some of my tournament lineups due to a pretty high expected ownership rate and some other values I like on the hill.

One of my favorite plays of the Wednesday slate is Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole. He’s projected for the most DraftKings points tomorrow according to our projection model, but owns just the fourth-highest salary ($8,600) among starting pitchers. Although the Pirates are just a slight favorite as of this writing (-115) with a run line that sits at seven, Cole stands to fare well against a Reds’ offense that posted just an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in ’14 — the third-worst mark against RHP in the first division. I’ll be laying down $8,600 for Cole in both cash and tournament lineups.

Other arms I’ll be looking to mix-and-match tomorrow are Jacob deGrom ($8,500), Matt Shoemaker ($7,700), Shelby Miller ($7,200) and Rick Porcello ($6,900). Of the four, Rick Porcello’s projection and salary make for one of the best values on our board. And Porcello’s new contract make for a fair narrative tomorrow as well.

According to our chart, Brandon McCarthy ($7,900) seems to carry decent value, but that would be against the Padres’ lineup from last season, which obviously fails to exist. Same goes for Tom Koehler ($6.500) against a new-look Braves squad. If anything they make for some risky tournament plays, so proceed with caution.

Stack Options

The highest total of the day is nine in the Arizona/San Francisco game. The Diamondbacks will throw Jeremy Hellickson against the Giants’ Chris Heston who will be recalled to take Matt Cain’s spot who just hit the 15-day disabled list. Both of these arms are listed among the lowest projected starters this evening, so we can pick on them first. Coincidentally, Paul Goldschmidt ($5,100) is the highest projected bat on our chart for the day and gets to face Heston. Parlay Goldschmidt with David Peralta ($3,800), Mark Trumbo ($4,100) and Jake Lamb ($3,700) in your tournament lineups. From the other dugout, Buster Posey ($4,400) and Angel Pagan ($3,900) grade out the best, so a Nori Aoki ($3,600), Joe Panik ($3,200), Buster Posey, Angel Pagan stack could work for tourneys too.

The Red Sox/Phillies come in with the second-highest total on the board for the day (8.5), so trying to work in a Boston stack against Aaron Harang could be the way to go. Mookie Betts ($4,300), Dustin Pedroia ($4,000), David Ortiz ($4,500) and Hanley Ramirez ($4,800) are a rather expensive group to roster, but after saving some cash on the mound, you may be able to pull it off. All of the above players grade out nicely today according to our projections.

Pittsburgh looks to have some stack value on in today’s slate, but this is one of the games that could be threatened by weather. Andrew McCutchen ($5,200) and Starling Marte ($4,700) grade out the best, so connecting them in your lineup with Gregory Polanco ($4,000) and Neil Walker ($4,200) seem like a good bet against Mike Leake.

And again, we’re going back to Milwaukee to stack the Brew Crew against the Rockies’ rookie arm, Eddie Butler. In facing another righty, we’re looking at a Carlos Gomez ($5,100), Jonathan Lucroy ($4,200), Adam Lind ($4,000) and Aramis Ramirez ($4,100) stack. Khris Davis ($4.200) actually grades out better than Ramirez, so if you’d like to skip on Aramis to get to Khris — or run both out — that could be a fine option too. With just two runs in the past two games against the Rockies, some folks may be getting cold feet rostering these guys again, so it could be the perfect time for a tournament stack with the hopes that ownership is down, but I don’t think that will be the case.

Lastly, if you want to pick on another one of the lowest projected pitchers for the day, you could roll out a lefty heavy Indians’ lineups against Scott Feldman. A Bourn, Kipnis, Brantley, Santana stack should do the trick. Consider Brandon Moss in play as well, but he’ll likely be hitting lower in the order resulting in fewer at bats.

Here are out hitter projections for the day, which can be downloaded here.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Buster Posey ($4,400) – San Francisco Giants
2. Carlos Santana ($4,300) – Cleveland Indians
3. Jonathan Lucroy ($4,200) – Milwaukee Brewers
4. Christian Bethancourt ($2,900) – Atlanta Braves

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt ($5,100) – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. David Ortiz ($4,500) – Boston Red Sox
3. Edwin Encarnacion ($5,000) – Toronto Blue Jays
4. Adam Lind ($4,000) – Milwaukee Brewers
5. Freddie Freeman ($4,500) – Atlanta Braves

Second Base

1. Dustin Pedroia ($4,000) – Boston Red Sox
2. Robinson Cano/Jose Altuve ($4,500) – Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros
3. Joe Panik ($3,200) – San Francisco Giants
4. Scooter Gennett ($3,800) – Milwaukee Brewers
5. Jace Peterson ($3,100) – Atlanta Braves

Third Base

1. Josh Donaldson ($4,700) – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Nolan Arenado ($4,300) – Colorado Rockies
3. Xander Bogaerts/Jake Lamb ($3,700) – Boston Red Sox/Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Chris Davis ($4,000) – Baltimore Orioles
5. Aramis Ramirez ($4,100) – Milwaukee Brewers

Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez ($4,800)/Xander Bogaerts ($3,700) – Boston Red Sox
2. Troy Tulowitzki ($5,100) – Colorado Rockies
3. Joe Panik ($3,200) – San Francisco Giants
4. Jose Reyes ($4,500) – Toronto Blue Jays

Outfield

1. Mike Trout ($5,400) – Los Angeles Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen ($5,100) – Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Jose Bautista ($5,000) – Toronto Blue Jays
4. Carlos Gomez ($5,100) – Milwaukee Brewers
5. Mark Trumbo ($4,200) – Arizona Diamondbacks
6. David Peralta ($3,800) – Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitcher

1. Gerrit Cole ($8,600) – Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Jordan Zimmermann ($9,200) – Washington Nationals
3. Rick Porcello ($6,900) – Boston Red Sox
4. Jacob deGrom ($8,500) – New York Mets
5. Shelby Miller ($7,200) – Atlanta Braves
6. Matt Shoemaker ($7,700) – Los Angeles Angels

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