Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: August 2, 2015
Woah. It’s already August! I feel like I say this a lot, but the season is flying by. We’ve got two full months left of MLB DFS, and we better make the most of it. As always, below I’ve included a look at the pitching options, the best teams to stack from and a set of individual player rankings for today’s slate on DraftKings.
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Forecast
ALL CLEAR
Pitching Perspective
Even with a full slate of games today, there are very few pitching options that I feel comfortable using. Your lineups though, should start with a consideration of Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is the most expensive pitching option today, and rightfully so. His home/road splits are incredible, and he’s been pretty dominant in his return from TJ surgery. In his five starts, he’s been striking out close to 10.5 K/9 and getting a steady stream of ground balls. The Padres didn’t sell off their whole offense at the deadline, but they weren’t good to begin with. There is plenty of offensive value today, so I’ll be paying for Jose.
The next best option tonight will force you to wait. Noah Syndergaard doesn’t take the mound until Sunday Night Baseball, but he’ll be worth it. The Nationals lineup is slowly but surely becoming healthier, but there are still plenty of holes to take advantage of. They’re striking out 6th most in the league (21.5%) and Syndergaard has incredible stuff and great strikeout upside. He’s another option up above the $10K mark, but again, I feel like today is a day where paying for the top guys is necessary.
A potential option below $10K is James Shields. Like most of his teammates, Shields’ name was thrown around at the trade deadline, but he’s still a Padre. He’ll be taking on a Giancarlo-less Miami Marlins team with very little depth. Shields has been a bit of an enigma this season, getting torched by the home run and struggling with his walk rate, but he’s increased his K/9 by nearly two hitters per nine innings. On a day where there are little other options, I’m ok with using him in this situation.
Back above the $10K mark, the last guy I’d consider rostering today in cash games is Sonny Gray. Gray has been fantastic as usual this season and his numbers have been right in line with seasons past. He’s not a huge strikeout guy (only 7.66 K/9) but he does have some strikeout upside. The great thing about Gray is that he combines some strikeout potential with the ability to work deep into games, while have a pretty solid floor thanks to his run prevention skills. He’s expensive, and will face a solid Cleveland lineup filled with left-handers, but he’s an option today.
Stack Options
On a day like today when there are so many marginal pitching options, I’m going to continue giving you the bulleted stack options rather than simply talk about every game. While the three teams I list below might not be the only worthy stacks, they’re my top three.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates don’t often find themselves in the top stacks category because of their home ball park, but today is their final game in a series at Great American Ball Park which is a huge park shift in their favor. They haven’t really taken advantage of the pitching matchups they have seen in this series, but I expect them to today. Their implied runs total is hovering around 4.7 runs as of right now.
2. Baltimore Orioles – This has been a common theme in my last couple of pieces, but I really love the Orioles offense. They’ve added a lot of depth with Matt Wieters coming back and the Gerrardo Parra addition. They’ll get to face left-hander Daniel Norris who will be making his first start as a Tiger, and I expect them to treat him poorly. Their implied runs total is around 5.2 runs right now, and they’ll look to explode past that and take advantage of the extreme flyball nature of Norris.
3. San Francisco Giants – This is the dream matchup for the Giants, who typically get thrown by the wayside thanks to their home ball park. This time though, they get a huge positive park shift and get to face a left-hander in Martin Perez. Fire up all the Giants righties you can, especially Buster Posey, who will be the top catching option by a landslide today.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Buster Posey -$4,700 – San Francisco Giants
2. Kyle Schwarber -$3,500 – Chicago Cubs
3. Matt Wieters -$3,100 – Baltimore Orioles
First Basemen
1. Anthony Rizzo -$5,000 – Chicago Cubs
2. David Ortiz -$4,300 – Boston Red Sox
3. Edwin Encarnacion -$4,300 – Toronto Blue Jays
Second Basemen
1. Jose Altuve -$4,600 – Houston Astros
2. Cesar Hernandez -$2,800 – Philadelphia Phillies
3. Neil Walker -$3,800 – Pittsburgh Pirates
Shortstop
1. Carlos Correa -$4,900 – Houston Astros
2. Jhonny Peralta -$4,100 – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Jung-ho Kang -$3,700 – Pittsburgh Pirates
Third Basemen
1. Manny Machado -$4,800 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Matt Duffy -$4,100 – San Francisco Giants
3. Josh Donaldson -$5,000 – Toronto Blue Jays
Outfield
1. Ryan Braun -$4,500 – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Andrew McCuthen -$4,700 – Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Starling Marte -$4,500 – Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers
1. Jose Fernandez -$12,300 – Miami Marlins
2. Noah Syndergaard -$10,800 – New York Mets
3. James Shields -$8,200 – San Diego Padres
4. Sonny Gray -$11,400 – Oakland Athletics