Welcome back to The Fix! I’m here to discuss the top plays and values for tonight’s 9-game slate on DraftKings. I’ll give you my thoughts on the slate, and at the bottom we have rankings of the top plays at each position. If you’re on Twitter, you can find me @RyNoonan.

Forecast

It’s difficult to nail down weather hours and hours before first pitch. Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

Tonight’s starting pitcher pool is shallow, to say the least. It’s a kiddy pool basically, but not even one of the nice ones. It’s more like that $5 one you can get at Wal Mart that’ll leave a mark on your lawn when you use it.

We’ll start the clear ace here, and that’s Jacob deGrom ($12,000). It’s going to be extremely difficult to fade deGrom in cash games tonight, and while I’m all for creating a unique lineup in tournaments, I think you can do that with your bats tonight and still roll out deGrom at an insanely high ownership clip. I feel like his floor is incredibly high, and his matchup against the Phillies is clearly a plus despite the game taking place in Philly instead of Queens. The Phillies implied run total opened at just 2.9 runs.

Next up is Hisashi Iwakuma ($10,200) who’s at home to take on the hapless A’s offense. Oakland has really struggled to score runs this season, but they were a fun under the radar offense in April and May. Since then, their top-5 wOBA against right-handed pitching has tumbled down to 22nd and now sits at .305 for the season (97 wRC+). From a fantasy perspective though, Iwakuma’s upside is limited because he’s a league average strikeout pitcher who’s taking on a team with a below league average strikeout rate (17.9%). He’s a solid option on this short slate, but he’s a terrible bargain at $10,200.

Lance Lynn ($9,300) has a difficult matchup in the desert against the Diamondbacks. Lance Lynn makes it easy on his owners. You’ll know pretty early in the night if he has it or not. There seems to be no middle ground for Lynn lately, he’s either walking no one or every one. His 56.5% first-pitch strike rate is not good enough and leaves him in a hitter’s count too frequently. He’s seen his strikeout totals jump up this season, but in order to be among the elite he’ll need to get that up above 60%.

 

Some other pitching quick takes:

• Julio Teheran ($8,100) has pitched much better at home than on the road this season, and the Rockies are obviously not the same threat outside of Coors as they are in Denver, but I want nothing to do with Teheran tonight. I’m going against Vegas a bit here since the Rockies implied-run total is just 3.4, but I don’t trust a starter who has shown that he can’t consistently handle a certain handedness. Left-handed bats have a .374 wOBA against Teheran this season, and his overall fly ball profile is also working against him here in my opinion.
• The other pitcher in this matchup is Jorge De La Rosa ($7,100) who benefits greatly when he’s pitching on the road. The Braves have the fourth lowest wRC+ (79) against left-handed pitching this season and their ISO is even worse. The problem here is that De La Rosa isn’t a victim of Coors, he’s just not very good. He does possess the strikeout upside that you want from a cheaper SP2, but the 4.34 BB/9 are an issue.
• I’d like Robbie Ray ($6,300) a lot more on the road than at home in Arizona, but he’s a viable option tonight. Ray doesn’t have elite swing-and-miss stuff, but it’s good enough to exploit the Cardinals surprisingly high (22.7%) strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Stack Options

According to Vegas, our best bets today are the Reds (4.8 implied-runs), Yankees (4.4) and Pirates (4.4).

It has been a rocky road for Tigers’ pitcher Buck Farmer this season, and it looks like Vegas is calling for more of the same from ole’ Buck. It’s such a small sample size, but Farmer hasn’t missed many bats and he’s given up a bunch of home runs. Pitching in the fancy Little League-sized park in Cincinnati is not going to help.

The Yankees take on Scott Feldman and the Astros tonight, but I’m not on the Yankees. I’m not suggesting that you roster Feldman, there’s no K-upside here, but he does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard-hit contact.

Nothing jumps out as an obvious actionable trend with Tom Koehler against the Pirates, other than he’s not very good and the Pirates are hot.  It’s worth noting that he’s pitched much better at home, where he is tonight, than on the road.

Other offensive notes:

• I already mentioned that I didn’t like Julio Teheran because he’s been terrible against left-handed bats this season, so the Rockies bats are worth a look. Nolan Arenado will cost you $4,800, but the rest of the bats are $4,000 and under.
• Adam Morgan faces the smokin’ hot Mets and his hefty fly ball rate doesn’t gel well with his struggles against right-handed bats (.345 wOBA).
• Joe Kelly has been bad all season, but he’s much worse against right-handed hitters (.372 wOBA) than he is against southpaws (.318).
•  The Marlins have hit lefties well all season and J.A. Happ has been equally generous, allowing both left-handed and right-handed bats to get on at an above average rate.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann – New York Yankees $4,100

2. Steve Clevenger – Baltimore Orioles $2,600

3. Tucker Barnhart – Cincinnati Reds $2,700

First Base

1. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds $5,600

2. David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox $4,600

3. Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox $4,600

4. Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles $4,900

Second Base

1. Neil Walker – Pittsburgh Pirates $3,600

2. Ian Kinsler – Detroit Tigers $4,700

3. Jose Altuve – Houston Astros $4,600

Third Base

1. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies $4,800

2. Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates $3,200

3. Manny Machado – Baltimore Orioles $4,900

Shortstop

1. Jhonny Peralta – St. Louis Cardinals $3,900

2. Jose Reyes – Colorado Rockies $3,800

3. Adeiny Hechavarria – Miami Marlins $3,200

4. Jung-ho Kang – Pittsburgh Pirates $3,800

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies $3,900

2. Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies $4,000

3. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates $4,500

4. David Peralta – Arizona Diamondbacks $3,200

5. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds $4,100

6. Gerardo Parra – Baltimore Orioles $4,400

Starting Pitcher

1. Jacob deGrom – New York Mets $12,000

2. Lance Lynn – St. Louis Cardinals $9,300

3. Hisashi Iwakuma – Seattle Mariners $10,200

4. Robbie Ray – Arizona Diamondbacks $6,300

5. Jorge De La Rosa – Colorado Rockies $7,100