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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: August 5, 2015

Happy “hump day!” We’ve passed the trade deadline, and made it to the middle of another week of baseball. It’s bittersweet at this time of the year as the baseball action heats up, but the season keeps shrinking.

As always, I’ve got a bunch of analysis below including a look at the pitching options, the best teams to stack from and a set of individual player rankings for tonight’s evening slate on DraftKings.

If you haven’t already signed up at DraftKings, be sure to do so using the link!

Forecast

Forecast looks clear! Let’s play ball!

Pitching Perspective

A rather bland slate of action tonight is saved by the draw of four particularly good arms in solid situations.

First off, let me start with Madison Bumgarner. MadBum was really “mad” last time out, but he’ll look to get back on the right track against the Atlanta Braves tonight. I still can’t get the Bumgarner of last postseason out of my head, and I’m hoping he shows a bit of that tonight. Bumgarner’s matchup with the Braves is not one of which you should be afraid. While they don’t strike out a whole lot, their offense has been very below average (.297 team wOBA). In recent weeks they’ve lost some depth by trading Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, and Freddie Freeman went back on the DL yesterday. Bumgarner has strikingly similar numbers to his season last year, striking out just over a hitter per inning. My favorite part about him is his ability to work deep into games, giving him a good chance to rack up a lot of DK points tonight.

The next place to look is at Matt Harvey against the Marlins in Miami. Harvey has been disappointing at times this season, but his numbers and matchup still make him a solid option tonight. The Marlins are right near the middle of the pack in terms of K% (20.4), but they’re near the bottom in terms of wOBA and wRC. Harvey has been victimized by the home run this season, but pitching this game against a Giancarlo-less Miami team at Marlins Park bodes well for him. He’s only striking out 8.5 hitters per nine innings, as opposed to 9.6 last year, but he does take a lot of strikeout upside with him to the mound. He’s a solid cash game option tonight.

The next best options on the night are new Royal Johnny Cueto and Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez.

Although Cueto would be the guy you’d give the ball in a do or die situation, I’m actually leaning Martinez when deciding between the two. While Martinez is pitching in Great American Ball Park (bad for pitchers), his ability to get ground balls makes the ball park less of a concern, and his matchup is better than Cueto’s. Martinez has not only been getting ground balls, but he’s striking out more than a hitter per inning and has pitched to a 3.24 xFIP this season. It doesn’t hurt that his price is super accessible.

Cueto’s matchup is a little more difficult tonight, but I still like him as an option mainly geared towards tournament play. He’s not been the Cueto of last year, but he still carries plenty of upside and the ability to work deep into games.

Stack Options

You might have guessed that because there aren’t a lot of great pitching options tonight, that there are plenty of potential stacks. As I’ve been doing recently, I’m going to include some of my favorite stacks, rather than simply giving you reasons as to why you could stack every team.

1. Houston Astros – Nick Martinez has come back down to Earth, and now hitters just keep pushing him further and further into the dirt. Martinez doesn’t strike out anyone, and he has an enormous 4.90 xFIP. The Astros are one of the best teams to stack because of their overwhelming power and speed potential. Their implied run total is up over five runs as of right now, and I think they’ll be a popular stack option tonight. You’ll want exposure in cash games and tournaments.

2. Toronto Blue Jays – This one is easy, eh? (See the Canadian Joke????) The Blue Jays at home are always a good bet to roll out for tournaments, but because of the depth and superstardom in their lineup, typically they’re tough to fit a full stack with. However, right now, their prices are super accessible. You can fit a solid stack of the Jays 1-4 hitters and still feel comfortable about not punting completely at other positions. I really like this stack today, but it should rival the Astros as another popular stack.

3.New York Yankees – The Yankees are again a popular stack option tonight as they’ll face Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright. The Yanks implied run total is up over five runs, and I don’t see it coming down too much. This lineup has been red hot, and their left-handers should take advantage of an arm that yields a lot of contact and has been bitten by the home run (1.66HR/9). The Yanks are probably my favorite of these three for cash games, but they have a ton of tournament appeal as well.

Secret Stack – Don’t forget about the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers will fly under the radar tonight, but stacking against Aaron Harang can always be a thing of beauty. The Dodgers are receiving a little park boost and could certainly take advantage.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann -$4,300 – New York Yankees

2. Yasmani Grandal -$3,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers

3. Russell Martin -$4,600 – Toronto Blue Jays

First Basemen

1. Mark Teixeira -$5,500 -New York Yankees

2. Evan Gattis -$4,400 – Houston Astros

3. Edwin Encarnacion -$4,500 – Toronto Blue Jays

Second Basemen

1. Jose Altuve -$5,300 – Houston Astros

2. Cesar Hernandez -$3,000 – Philadelphia Phillies

3. Scooter Gennett– $2,700 – Milwaukee Brewers

Third Basemen

1. Josh Donaldson -$5,300 – Toronto Blue Jays

2. Alex Rodriguez -$5,100 – New York Yankees

3. Kris Bryant -$4,200 – Chicago Cubs

Shorstops

1. Carlos Correa -$5,600 – Houston Astros

2. Troy Tulowitzki -$4,400 – Toronto Blue Jays

3. Jhonny Peralta -$4,000 – St. Louis Cardinals

Outfield

1. Jose Bautista -$4,900 – Toronto Blue Jays

2. Bryce Harper– $5,400 – Washington Nationals

3. Jacoby Ellsbury -$4,600 – New York Yankees

Starting Pitchers

1. Madison Bumgarner -$10,600 – San Francisco Giants

2. Matt Harvey -$11,500 – New York Mets

3. Carlos Martinez -$8,700 – St. Louis Cardinals

4. Johnny Cueto -$10,100 – Kansas City Royals

5. Gio Gonzalez -$7,800 – Washington Nationals (GPP)

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