Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: July 1, 2015
Good afternoon folks! Welcome to another edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy. If you’re just tuning in for the first time, take notice that below I’ve included a discussion of the night slate at DraftKings. The discussion includes a look at tonight’s pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as a set of individual player rankings.
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Forecast
It appears as if there might just be some light rain in St. Louis and Atlanta tonight, but nothing to completely shatter the slate.
Pitching Perspective
Despite the relatively low totals set by Vegas for tonight’s slate of games, there aren’t a bunch of pitchers that make me feel safe tonight.
But, we’ll have to make do.
When you’re starting your cash game lineups, look to Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has the perfect blend of components for a DFS pitcher, but doesn’t always get everything to fall into line. Tonight though, he’ll get a nice matchup with an above-average strikeout team, the Tampa Bay Rays. A glance at the Rays offense will leave you wondering how they win any games. It’ll be tough tonight against Carrasco’s 9.85 K/9 and 47.3 GB%. He’s one of the most expensive pitchers on the night, but the safest, with the most upside as well.
Jon Lester hasn’t been the million dollar baby that the Cubs wanted (sigh) but he’s battled through some tough starts so far this year. This start he’ll take the mound in a good park for pitchers and he’ll face a mediocre Mets offense. The Mets, like the Rays, are in the upper-tier in terms of strikeout percentage as a team, coming up with a strikeout 21.1% of the time. Lester’s issues this season have stemmed from a rise in his walk rate, and some bad luck which is accompanied by a .329 BABIP. I don’t think you have to worry about too many balls flying out of the park tonight, and Lester is a small favorite. He’s the next best option in cash games.
And after that, I’ve just about exhausted all of the starting pitching options. John Lackey has a nice matchup at home against the beleaguered Chicago White Sox offense, but his lack of strikeout potential makes him a less attractive option on DraftKings where strikeouts are so valuable. With that being said though, if you’re looking to save some cap room, he’s a fairly safe option.
If you’re looking to save even more cap, and also get the strikeout upside, look to Vincent Velasquez. Velasquez is particularly a GPP play for me as his command issues make it tough to trust him in cash games. However, the Royals are without Hosmer, and Velasquez’ strikeout potential for the price is enough to warrant some exposure.
Stack Options
No Coors Field today, but Chase Field is coming in handy as an alternate. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks will battle tonight when a pair of left-handers take the mound. Surely when you make note that Paul Goldschmidt is facing a southpaw, he instantly becomes a top play, regardless of price. Goldy won’t be the only beneficiary though, as AJ Pollock and Yasmany Tomas have also had their way with lefties so far and should have no problems with Brett Anderson tonight.
The Dodgers side of this is just as appetizing though, as Justin Turner, Howie Kendrick and Yasiel Puig should have fun with Robbie Ray. Ray has actually been solid this year, but the matchup is too good to ignore. I’m hoping that Kike Hernandez, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Guerrero make their way into the starting lineup as well, as they’ll provide salary relief options in a great run scoring environment.
Camden Yards exploded with home runs last night and it might see a fair share tonight. Both Nick Martinez and Wei-Yin Chen are flyball pitchers in a great home run environment. Vegas likes the Orioles sluggers a bit more against Martinez, and so do I. Chris Davis is capable of replicating last night’s performance everytime he steps into the box, and he has a nice matchup with Martinez tonight, who doesn’t miss very many bats. All the other top Orioles are also in play, but I want to make note of Matt Wieters at a shallow catcher position as well.
The Rangers don’t have very many right-handed sluggers to try and take advantage of tonight, but there still in a good run scoring environment. They are more of a tournament stack for me, and perhaps you can get some good tournament use out of Robinson Chirinos or Adrian Beltre.
My obligatory stack against Bartolo Colon blurb is a little bit more fun today because my Cubbies will be taking on Colon. Bartolo still isn’t walking anyone (less than one hitter per nine), and he’s still striking out a fair amount, but this year he’s been bitten by the home run a fair amount (1.37 HR/9). The Cubs are a boom or bust offense, but possess a lot of power to neutralize their strikeouts. It isn’t a great home run environment, but it’s a contrarian stack that could reap big rewards. GO CUBS GO!
Where there is a stack against Bartolo Colon, there is one against Aaron Harang. These guys are defying the odds, but get caught red-handed every once in a while. I typically like to deploy a lot of Brewers against left-handers, but can’t pass up the opportunity in a good park. They’re another contrarian stack option tonight.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Matt Wieters – $4,400 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Jonathan Lucroy -$3,600 – Milwaukee Brewers
3. Buster Posey -$4,600 – San Francisco Giants
First Basemen
1. Paul Goldschmidt -$5,900 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Anthony Rizzo -$4,600 – Chicago Cubs
3. Chris Davis -$4,200 – Baltimore Orioles
Second Basemen
1. Jimmy Paredes -$4,500 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Justin Turner -$4,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Howie Kendrick- $4,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Shortstops
1. Kike Hernandez -$2,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jhonny Peralta -$3,800 – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Cesar Hernandez -$2,900 – Philadelphia Phillies
Third Basemen
1. Manny Machado -$4,500 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Jimmy Paredes -$4,500 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Kris Bryant -$4,100 – Chicago Cubs
Outfield
1. Chris Parmalee- $3,400 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Scott Van Slyke -$3,900 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. AJ Pollock-$4,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Travis Snider -$3,800 – Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers
1. Carlos Carrasco -$10,200 – Cleveland Indians
2. Jon Lester -$10,300 – Chicago Cubs
3. John Lackey -$9,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
4. Vincent Velasquez -$5,200 – Houston Astros
5. Matt Shoemaker -$7,200 – Los Angeles Angels