Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 13-game slate on DraftKings starting at 7:05 P.M. ET. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

Kevin Roth of Rotogrinders already has an early forecast up for today’s games, so make sure to check that out as well as his update closer to lock.
Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

As usual, let’s start with today’s expensive pitching options ($9,000+). Let’s first get rid of two of the five guys in this price range. I’m out on Chris Archer and Garrett Richards. They both have below average matchups in hitter-friendly ball parks, and my model gives both pitchers a bad value grade. Pass.

That leaves us with Clayton Kershaw ($13,100), Masahiro Tanaka ($10,100) and Michael Wacha ($9,900). They’re all getting a positive adjustment to their base projection thanks to good matchups, and Kershaw and Wacha are getting additional bumps pitching in favorable ball parks.
Despite the positive adjustments to his projection, my model puts a below average value grade on Wacha. With a strikeout rate that is slightly below average and an xFIP that’s a full run higher than his ERA, my model isn’t giving him much credit for his past performance, while the DK pricing model is obviously giving that more weight. He does keep balls on the ground at a good rate, and he keeps balls in the park, so his downside is fairly limited. If you like him and want to use him in a cash game, feel free. But I’m not considering him in GPPs.
As for the two most expensive guys, you have to assume Kershaw’s ownership percentage is going to be through the roof despite his high price tag. The inability of the Mets to score runs is a running joke now, so Kershaw obviously has a great matchup tonight. And my model gives him a slightly above average value grade, so the high price tag is not unreasonable. The only reason to fade him would simply be to be contrarian in GPPs.
Tanaka has been brutally bad in his last two starts allowing a combined 11 runs and six home runs. His HR/FB rate for the season is an unsustainably high 17.9 percent and is the main reason his ERA is in the high threes while his SIERA and xFIP are in the low threes. He’s pitching at home, so there is some worry more balls could leave the yard tonight, but he is facing the Rays who have the seventh lowest ISO against right-handed pitching. And we saw the Cleveland right-handers do damage to the Rays last week, so Tanaka has upside. He’s a fine GPP play.
In the mid-price range ($7,000-$9,000), I’ve got to mention my boy, Jesse Chavez. He comes up every time that he’s pitching and I’m writing the DFS post because my model always gives him an above average projection, and his price tag is always below average. Today his price tag is almost right at average ($7,000), but his projection is safely above average thanks to an excellent matchup against the Mariners. Seattle has the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and according to my model, the Mariners are the second most favorable matchup for right-handers overall.
Julio Teheran ($8,000) also has a good projection and value grade in this price range, though not nearly as good as Chavez’s. Given that many will likely be on Teheran against the lowly Phillies and that I like Chavez more at a lower price tag, I probably won’t roster Teheran. But I wouldn’t take much issue with you doing so.
If you’re looking to gamble on a bargain, I’d look at the pitchers in the Houston at Boston game. Fair warning, those are two of the teams I’m going to mention in the section below discussing hitter stack options. But a lot of people are going to be on hitters in that game, and using one of the pitchers could be a nice contrarian GPP play.
Houston strikes out a ton as we all know, so Justin Masterson ($5,100) has some upside. Masterson is woeful against left-handed hitters, but Houston’s most dangerous hitters are right-handed. His toughest opponents today will be guys like Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena, Jason Castro and Preston Tucker. Not exactly murderer’s row, although they all have the ability to go deep.
For Houston, Dan Straily ($5,500) is making his first major league start of the season. Once upon a time, Straily was a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher with decent strikeout stuff and bad control. If his recent minor league numbers are any indication, his control has improved, and he continues to have decent strikeout stuff. But he’s a total gamble, and Masterson probably has more upside at a lower price, so I probably won’t roll the dice anywhere with Straily.
Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

As mentioned, that Houston-Boston game could make for good stacking options. Boston and Houston have the second and fifth highest projected team totals according to Vegas today, respectively. Of the two, I prefer the Red Sox. Masterson keeps the ball on the ground on more than half of his batted balls, so that limits the dong potential of Houston hitters. That said, all of Houston’s left-handed hitters are options as plus-ones to fill leftover slots on your rosters.
As for the Red Sox, David Ortiz has one of the highest projections of the day and has a great value grade, so he’ll be on most of my rosters. Hanley and Panda also have solid projections and have been hitting right behind Ortiz, so that makes plenty of sense as a stack. I also like Mookie today, but if he leads off and the other trio hits 4-5-6, then he makes less sense to pair with them.
Checking in as the team with the third highest projected team total of the day is the Orioles, who will be in Chicago facing John Danks. Of the 26 starters going in tonight’s slate, Danks has the fourth lowest ground ball rate among them since the start of 2014. I love picking on pitchers who allow hitters to elevate, so the Orioles are a great play tonight. Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are all good options. Of the three, Wieters has the best price, so I’ll likely own him heavily. That’s assuming the O’s don’t start Caleb Joseph tonight. If Nolan Reimold is in the two hole, he makes sense with to pair with that trio who will likely hit 1-3-5.
Vegas also like the Diamondbacks and Angels tonight. It’s hard to argue against Arizona at home against Kyle Kendrick, but only three D’Backs rank toward the top of my rankings, and I don’t like Goldschmidt’s price, so I’m probably fading Arizona.
As for the Angels, I’m all in on stacking against Chi Chi Gonzalez. Gonzalez has 17 walks and 14 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings this year, which is…..awful. He does keep the ball on the ground, so that could limit Los Angeles’ upside, but I’m banking on his 2.59 ERA regressing to his 5.44 SIERA. Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols hitting 2-3-4 is an excellent stack option.
You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Matt Wieters – $4,000 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Jason Castro – $3,300 – Houston Astros
3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $3,500 – Arizona Diamondbacks

First Base

1. David Ortiz – $4,300 – Boston Red Sox
2. Joey Votto – $4,200 – Boston Red Sox
3. Adam Laroche – $3,600 – Chicago White Sox

Second Base

1. Jason Kipnis – $4,900 – Cleveland Indians
2. Ben Zobrist – $4,100 – Oakland Athletics
3. Devon Travis – $3,600 – Toronto Blue Jays

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera – $5,000 – Detroit Tigers
2. Manny Machado – $4,800 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Jake Lamb – $3,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies
2. Hanley Ramirez – $4,700 – Boston Red Sox
3. Marcus Semien – $3,300 – Oakland Athletics

Outfield

1. Mike Trout – $5,900 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Jason Heyward – $4,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Jose Bautista – $4,700 – Toronto Blue Jays
4. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,600 – Colorado Rockies
5. Kole Calhoun – $4,400 – Los Angeles Angels
6. Joc Pederson – $3,900 – Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Josh Hamilton – $3,500 – Texas Rangers
8. Eddie Rosario – $3,100 Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitcher

1. Clayton Kershaw – $13,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jesse Chavez – $7,000 – Oakland Athletics
3. Masahiro Tanaka – $10,200 – New York Yankees
4. Julio Teheran – $8,000 – Atlanta Braves
5. Justin Masterson – $5,100 – Boston Red Sox
6. Michael Wacha – $9,900 – St. Louis Cardinals
*Rankings are price sensitive