Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 1, 2015
Good morning folks, welcome to another edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy. Below we have a discussion of the night’s slate of games including the weather forecast, pitching situation and hitting outlook.
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Forecast
It appears as if rain is going to hamper the east coast again today. Please be wary of the games in Boston and Washington. Make sure to check the forecasts closer to first pitch.
Pitching Perspective
I swapped to get today’s piece and certainly lucked out with the pitching options. There are so many pitching options I’m not even sure where to start.
It’s probably safest to start with Clayton Kershaw, although ironically he might not be the safest pitcher on the slate since he’ll be tossing the ball around in Coors Field tonight. Typically Coors Field is an automatic disqualifier for pitchers, but not when you’re talking about the best pitcher in the game. Kershaw will see a fairly “bleh” Colorado lineup and should be in line for a solid outing. He’s a super heavy favorite and possess elite upside in terms of strikeouts and working deep into games. Put him at the top of your list for cash games and GPPs.
It’s rare that King Felix is overshadowed, but he ranks second for me today in his home matchup against the Yankees. He’s priced above Kershaw, and although has the park on his side, he’ll face a lineup that is a little more sound top to bottom. The great thing about King Felix is he possess great strikeout upside and he gets a ton of groundballs. The Yankees team total is below three runs and Felix is in line as the favorite tonight. The hard part will be paying up for him, but if you can do it, he’s great for cash games and GPPs.
Felix and Kershaw are the top two options, but the next tier of starting pitchers contains plenty of depth. Gerrit Cole is becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball and his strikeout upside (9.84 K/9) paired with his ability to dial up grounders at a greater than 50% clip makes him one of the few pitchers that fits that magical DFS combination. His matchup and price in a game at AT&T Park should make him a heavily sought after commodity tonight.
Jacob deGrom and Andrew Cashner square off in what should be a fantastic pitchers duel tonight at Petco Park. The ball has been flying out of Petco Park, but I don’t think that trend will continue tonight. Both deGrom and Cashner have excellent strikeout stuff, and Vegas certainly sees the run prevention in addition to the strikeouts tonight. I prefer Cashner due to the lack of depth of the Mets lineup and the salary relief he provides, but I don’t have a problem using deGrom in tournaments.
Stack Options
Clayton Kershaw is pitching in Coors Field, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t capitalize on the game. The Dodgers are going to be the most popular stack today, and rightfully so. They get a juicy matchup with Kyle Kendrick and have a total well above 5 runs. I’m not going to speculate on what Don Mattingly will do with his lineup, because I’m not sure he even knows, but I’m on board with using any and all Dodgers that find their name on the lineup card.
The next best run scoring environment today will be at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are probably pretty tired from losing a 17-inning game to the hands of the Brewers yesterday, but I’m not sure that will get me off of Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy has been red hot, and has historically crushed left-handed pitching. Along with fellow southpaw masher AJ Pollock, Goldy makes for a perfect cash game or tournament play. The only problem is, you’re going to have to pay a hefty fee to get him. You’ll need to find value to fit Coors, Goldy and one of Kershaw or King Felix today.
The Braves also have a solid team total and are in a good ballpark tonight, but I can’t buy into their lineup. They will be a contrarian stack that gets a solid opportunity, but they’re not a team I’m building around consistently. This is a nice spot to find some value and mix and match, but I’d reserve full stacks for extreme tournament strategy only.
The Astros and Orioles will square off in Minute Maid Park. We were all burned by the Astros inability to score off of John Danks yesterday, but I think they might come back with a vengeance on Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez is extremely volatile, capable of twirling a gem or not making it past the 2nd or 3rd inning. This is one of the better hitting environments of the night, and the Astros have a boom or bust lineup that is made up of extreme home run and stolen base potential near the top. They make for an excellent tournament option.
The Orioles on the other hand will get the opportunity to square up left-hander Brett Oberholtzer. Without Adam Jones, the entire lineups appeal against left-handers is lessened, but I still like those near the top, and Delmon Young should be a solid salary relief option along with Steve Pearce.
I’m not going to leave out my Cubbies. The Cubs get to face a young right-hander, Jose Urena as they make the trek to Miami to face the Marlins. It’s a downgrade in park for the Cubs in terms of recent play as the wind has blowing out for the most part recently, but it’s a spacious ballpark with plenty of room for opportunity. Even with their extreme youth, the Cubs put together a fairly deep lineup that possess stolen base and home run potential 1-9. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are my favorites, but don’t sleep on Jorge Soler, Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler near the top.
Last but not least, don’t sleep on the Rockies. Even though the game is in Coors Field, the Rockies will probably see a lot less exposure tonight than they would on any other night because they are facing Clayton Kershaw. I’m not saying to go for broke on them, but they’re a contrarian stack that has immense upside thanks to the ballpark. Using a Rockies stack in a tournament is an easy way to protect yourself should Kershaw ruin your cash games.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Yasmani Grandal -$4,200 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Miguel Montero -$3,500 – Chicago Cubs
3. Evan Gattis -$4,900 – Houston Astros
First Basemen
1. Adrian Gonzalez -$5,000 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Paul Goldschmidt -$5,300 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Anthony Rizzo -$5,200 – Chicago Cubs
Second Basemen
1. Justin Turner -$4,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jose Altuve -$4,800 – Houston Astros
3. Howie Kendrick -$5,000 -Los Angeles Dodgers
Shortstops
1. Jimmy Rollins -$4,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Troy Tulowitzki -$4,300 – Colorado Rockies
3. Hanley Ramirez -$5,000 – Boston Red Sox
Third Basemen
1. Kris Bryant -$5,000 -Chicago Cubs
2. Alex Guerrero -$3,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Manny Machado -$4,000 – Baltimore Orioles
Outfield
1. Joc Pederson -$4,900 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. AJ Pollock -$4,200 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Mark Trumbo -$3,900 – Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Andre Ethier -$3,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers
1. Clayton Kershaw -$10,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Felix Hernandez -$11,600 – Seattle Mariners
3. Gerrit Cole -$9,900 – Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Andrew Cashner- $8,000 -San Diego Padres
5. Jacob deGrom – $9,700 – New York Mets
6. Michael Pindea -$8,800 -Seattle Mariners