Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy, June 21st
Good morning FantasyFixers, welcome to another edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy. Below I’ve included a discussion on today’s pitching slate, the best teams to stack from as well as an individual set of player rankings.
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Forecast
The only game with any potential weather concerns as of right now is in Cincinnati. The game should start out clear, with thunderstorms moving in near the end, so hopefully they can get it all in. Make sure to monitor this forecast prior to locking any lineups.
Pitching Perspective
Hopefully Atlanta is prepared for the reign of the “Dark Knight” as Matt Harvey takes the mound looking to try and redeem the start by Noah Syndergaard last night. I mentioned yesterday that the Braves are actually fairly good at avoiding the strikeout, but as a whole the team has plenty of holes, especially for someone as good as Harvey. Harvey carries a 9.14 K/9 and a 3.03 xFIP, a number that has been mired by his inability to avoid the home run early this season. I don’t think he’ll have any problem with the Atlanta bats, especially if Freddie Freeman is out of the lineup again. Harvey is the clear number one today.
Right below Harvey today is a combination of Jake Arrieta and Michael Wacha. Wacha gets the better matchup with the inept Philadelphia Phillies lineup, and he’s slightly cheaper ($500 savings), so he’s my preferred play for cash games. Wacha hasn’t been missing as many bats as we’d like this season (only a 6.70 K/9) but his run prevention skills have been important, and should continue today. He’s the safer of the two options, but carries a smaller upside than Arrieta.
Arrieta’s matchup will be a little bit more difficult facing a fairly solid Minnesota Twins lineup, but one that he shouldn’t have to worry too much about maneuvering around. Arrieta’s strikeout ability makes his floor and ceiling pretty comfortable for his price on DraftKings, where strikeouts take the cake. His 9.77 K/9 makes his price tag affordable for cash games, but I prefer his usage in GPPs today.
Other strikeout options to keep your eye on as GPP options today include Masahiro Tanaka and Scott Kazmir who both have solid upsides, with the potential for huge games.
Stack Options
There are a lot of potential stack options today, so each section below will be rather brief as I wanted to make sure to hit every option.
First things first, there is a game in Coors Field today. Coors will become the premier location to start building your lineups today as Chris Rusin and Matt Garza will be taking the mound. The Brewers lineup contains some great targets against left-handed starters, notably Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Jonathan Lucroy. Those three become my favorite targets from this game, but any other right-handed Brewers near the top are also in play.
On the other side of this, I like all of the Colorado bats. Garza has really struggled to keep the ball in the park this year, yielding 1.43 HR/9. The Rockies 1-5 should all be on your radar, and any other salary relief options, such as Ben Paulsen that might crack the lineup are premier lineup fillers.
Away from Coors Field, I’ll be looking to try and take advantage of the Rogers Centre. A pair of mediocre right-handed starters take the mound against a pair of solid offensive lineups. As I’ve mentioned in the past, the Blue Jays are a difficult team to stack top to bottom because of their salaries, but if you can find a way to do it, they’re a solid option, as they carry an implied run total of 4.6 runs.
The Orioles, who carry a slightly smaller team total around 4.5 runs, are a little bit easier to fit into a full stack. Recently against right-handed starters Travis Snider and Chris Parmalee have been near the top of the order, a pair of great salary relief options. Vegas and the park agree, and Scott Copeland’s inability to miss bats pushes them over the edge. They’re one of my favorite options today, outside of Coors Field.
Moving back into the United States, the game in Great American should be another game for offenses. As I mentioned yesterday, Great American is a great ballpark to hit home runs, and should add value to every bat in this game. I like this game as more of a mix and match full of stack fillers, but wouldn’t be opposed to full stacks because of the home run potential.
Last but not least, the game in Chase Field could feature some fireworks. Vegas currently has the total set at 8.5, one of the highest on the day. Neither of these offenses are great full stacks because of the shallow nature of their lineups, but each could feature decent mini stack builds focusing on the top of each order. Both Andrew Cashner and Jeremy Hellickson are yielding over 1.3 HR/9 this season, making either mini-stack a solid GPP option.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Jonathan Lucroy -$4,400 – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Nick Hundley -$3,200 – Colorado Rockies
3. Buster Posey -$4,200 – San Francisco Giants
First Basemen
1. Joey Votto -$5,100 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Edwin Encarnacion -$4,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. Ben Paulsen – $3,400 – Colorado Rockies
Second Basemen
1. DJ LeMahieu – $3,700 – Colorado Rockies
2. Derek Dietrich -$3,600 – Miami Marlins
3. Jimmy Paredes -$4,200 – Baltimore Orioles
Third Basemen
1. Todd Frazier -$5,700 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Josh Donaldson -$4,600 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. Aramis Ramirez -$4,200 – Milwaukee Brewers
Shortstops
1. Jhonny Peralta -$4,100 – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Troy Tulowitzki -$5,100 – Colorado Rockies
3. Jean Segura -$4,500 – Milwaukee Brewers
Outfield
1. Ryan Braun -$5,300 – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Charlie Blackmon -$4,300 – Colorado Rockies
3. Carlos Gonzalez -$4,300 – Colorado Rockies
4. Jose Bautista -$4,900 – Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers
1. Matt Harvey -$10,800 – New York Mets
2. Michael Wacha – $9,100 -St. Louis Cardinals
3. Jake Arrieta -$9,600 – Chicago Cubs
4. Masahiro Tanaka -$10,500 – New York Yankees