Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 14-game slate starting at 7:05 P.M. ET on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

As far as rain goes, keep your eye on the games in Texas and St. Louis, but rain doesn’t appear like it’s going to be an issue anywhere tonight. Check out DailyBaseballData.com and @KevinRothWx this afternoon for updates. As for wind, there are decent winds blowing out Baltimore, Philadelphia and Queens.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

If you’re going to pay up for a pitcher today, go big. Clayton Kershaw ($11,900) is the only pitcher with a price tag over $8,500 that I’d pay up for. I’ll likely just go with two cheaper options, but Kershaw does actually grade out as being worth his price in the model above. With decent bumps to his projection from both his matchup (Colorado) and his ball park (at home), spending that amount for him is justified.

As for the other expensive options, I just can’t. Madison Bumgarner ($10,600) isn’t worth it away from his home park against a Reds team that has been a bit better than average against left-handed pitching. Jordan Zimmermann ($9,200) does get the favorable ball park bump in Petco, but the DK pricing model is giving him too much credit for that. And while I’m buying Michael Pineda‘s ($8,800) studliness, I don’t like his price tag or his matchup with the Royals. It’s Kershaw or cheaper options.

From the mid-price range, it’s a bit difficult for me to differentiate the three guys that grade out with good projections and as good values, Phil Hughes ($7,400), Bartolo Colon ($7,600) and Clay Buchholz ($6,800). Ultimately, I think Colon will be my first choice because of his matchup with the Brewers. Milwaukee has the fifth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and is 25th against RHP according to wRC+.

As for Hughes and Buchholz, they both have their warts. Hughes has lost a little fastball velocity this year, and he’s also relying on his two-seamer far more than he did last year. Both of those things are contributing to a decline in his strikeout rate, and it shouldn’t necessarily be expected to bounce back if his velocity and/or his old pitch mix don’t return. Thankfully, he has not lost his command as he’s still pounding the strike zone with great frequency and issuing almost no walks. For that reason, his downside is limited and I’d trust him in cash games. But he may not have the upside you’re looking for in tournaments.

As for Buchholz, his skills are certainly impressive. He’s maintained the improvements he made to his walk rate last year, but he has added a lot more swinging strikes to the mix. He’s had some terribly bad luck on balls in play and with runners on base so far. It’s somewhat satisfying to see Buchholz having some bad luck after having some insanely good luck in various past seasons. But, as always, extreme luck on either end of the spectrum should not be expected to continue, and Buchholz has the potential to post a big number absent any bad luck. He’s a nice tournament play.

If you want to go with a cheap option, I’d recommend Chase Anderson, as I always seem to do when he’s starting. And I’ll continue recommending Anderson until DraftKings bumps his price appropriately. I don’t believe he is as good as his 2.97 ERA indicates, but he’s certainly an above average pitcher yet his price tag continues to be below average. His strikeout and walk rates are safely above average, so his ERA should settle in the mid-threes. He’s away from his difficult home ball park today, but unfortunately he’s in another hitter-friendly park in Philadelphia. However, the Phillies are decidedly pitcher-friendly. I’d be fine using him in either cash games or tournaments for salary relief.

Carlos Rodon ($5,600) is another cheap option that grades out as a decent value, but he’s hard to trust. His sample size is obviously small, but he’s walked 14.3 percent of batters in his young career. He does, however, have some upside. He already has an above average strikeout rate in the big leagues, and he’s got a lot of potential in that department. His opponent, Minnesota, has the third highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. There’s definitely upside there for a tournament play, but I couldn’t stomach him in cash games.

Stack Options

There are three teams with six players who have projections at least one standard deviation above the mean today. In other words, three teams have six players that all have really good projections for the day.

The team with the largest sum of those player projections is the Texas Rangers, who are hosting the Indians and starter Bruce Chen. This is the game with the highest total in Vegas (nine) for good reason. Chen is a 38-year old starter whose primary pitch at this point is a sinker that averages 84.5 mph. He’s also left-handed, and the Rangers have the third highest ISO in the league against left-handed pitching. The top six Rangers in the lineup are all in play assuming this turns out to be the top six: Shin-Soo Choo ($4,500, OF), Elvis Andrus ($4,200, OF), Prince Fielder ($4,800, 1B), Adrian Beltre ($5,300, 3B), Kyle Blanks ($4,100, 1B/OF) and Robinson Chirinos ($3,700, C).

Next up are the Dodgers who represent the best value of the three teams to be mentioned here. Presumably their prices are a little lower than maybe they should be since this game is in pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine. However, they have an excellent matchup against Eddie Butler. Don’t let Butler’s 3.73 ERA fool you. He has issued as many walks as he has strikeouts and his WHIP is an ugly 1.66. He could get lit up at any moment. And the Dodgers have a 135 wRC+ against RHP. No other team is higher than 114 in that statistic. The Dodgers top six  is expected to be as follows: Joc Pederson ($4,500, OF), Jimmy Rollins ($3,500, SS), Howie Kendrick ($4,600, 2B), Adrian Gonzalez ($4,600, 1B), Alex Guerrero ($3,200, 2B/3B) and Yasmani Grandal ($4,200, C).

And then finally we have the Giants in Cincinnati. The ball park is obviously favorable, and the matchup against Jason Marquis is a good one. Marquis deserves some credit for having a good walk rate and a strikeout rate that isn’t too far below average. That’s led to a 3.99 xFIP. But xFIP is normalizing the one factor of that stat in which Marquis really struggles. xFIP sets home run rate to league average to account for bad luck, and Marquis’ home run rate is very high. But it’s not bad luck. In the last 400+ innings of Marquis’ career, his HR/9 is 1.29 with league average being around right around 1.00, if not a bit lower. In this ball park, that’s a real problem and provides the Giants with a chance for a big day.

Here are the six Giants I would consider, what should be hitters 1-5 and the guy in the seven hole: Nori Aoki ($4,100, OF), Joe Panik ($3,900, 2B), Angel Pagan ($3,700, OF), Buster Posey ($4,900, 1B/C), Brandon Belt ($4,200, 1B) and Brandon Crawford ($4,100, SS).

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Carlos Santana – $5,000 – Cleveland Indians
2. Robinson Chirinos – $3,700 – Texas Rangers
3. Buster Posey – $4,900 – San Francisco Giants
4. Yasmani Grandal – $4,200 – Los Angeles Dodgers

First Base

1. Adrian Gonzalez – $4,600 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Chris Davis – $4,100 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Paul Goldschmidt – $5,300 – Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Nick Swisher – #3,300 – Cleveland Indians

Second Base

1. Alex Guerrero – $3,200 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Robinson Cano – $3,900 – Seattle Mariners
3. Joe Panik – $3,900 – San Francisco Giants
4. Jose Altuve – $4,500 – Houston Astros

Third Base

1. Alex Guerrero – $3,200 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Chris Davis – $4,100 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Adrian Beltre – $5,300 – Texas Rangers
4. Kyle Seager – $3,600 – Seattle Mariners

Shortstop

1. Elvis Andrus  – $4,200 – Texas Rangers
2. Jimmy Rollins – $3,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Jose Ramirez – $3,200 – Cleveland Indians
4. Marcus Semien – $4,300 – Oakland Atheltics

Outfield

1. Mike Trout – $5,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Angel Pagan – $3,700 – San Francisco Giants
3. Christian Yelich – $3,800 – Miami Marlins
4. Joc Pederson – $4,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
5. George Springer – $4,800 – Houston Astros
6. Nick Swisher – $3,300 – Cleveland Indians
7. Nori Aoki – $4,100 – San Francisco Giants

Starting Pitcher

1. Bartolo Colon – $7,600 – New York Mets
2. Chase Anderson – $6,000 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Clayton Kershaw – $11,900 – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Phil Hughes – $7,400 – Minnesota Twins
5. Clay Buchholz – $6,800 – Boston Red Sox
6. Carlos Rodon – $5,600 – Chicago White Sox

*Rankings are price sensitive