Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: October 3, 2015
Below I’ve included a small discussion on the pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as a set of individual player rankings for today’s night slate on DraftKings.
Forecast
It’s bleak on the coast, so be sure to check the weather closer to game time.
Pitching Perspective
As I noted yesterday, the near end of the season is a wild time of uncertainty. Pitchers that are throwing for teams that have already clinched playoff berths carry quite a bit of risk while those making their final starts might carry just a tad less. I’d advise that in these final days, you wager a smaller percentage of your bankroll than you would on a typical, mid-summer slate.
The night slate is headlined by Max Scherzer and Matt Harvey squaring off in New York. This is one of those games that is going to be impacted by the weather, so make sure to pay close attention to the forecasts. With the Mets playoff push, and the whole Harvey controversy, I wouldn’t even bother paying for him, unless you’re really risky for tournaments. Scherzer on the other hand should be in play should the game actually get under way. Scherzer presents the best strikeout upside on the slate, and while he’s very expensive, the prices have softened quite a bit as the season has dwindled.
After Scherzer, Corey Kluber is the next best arm without any real worries today. Kluber gets a matchup with the Boston Red Sox dragging them away from Fenway Park. The Sox currently have an implied runs total in the low threes and I’d expect it to stay there given the cold, dreary weather should deaden the ball quite nicely. Kluber much like Scherzer presents a lot of strikeout upside and the ability to work deep into games. He’s noticeably cheaper than the aforementioned Scherzer, and I’d consider him cash game worthy.
The second biggest favorite of the night (first is Zack Grienke) is AJ Burnett pitching against the Cincinnati Reds at home. This is probably my favorite matchup to attack given that the weather holds in Pittsburgh (FYI, I live in Pittsburgh and it’s soggy and rainy here this morning). The Pirates need one more win or a Cubs loss to clinch home field advantage in the wild card game, and they’re not going to hold Burnett back. The Reds implied run total is below three runs and Burnett’s salary is super accessible. Lock him in as one of your cash game options.
I mentioned Grienke is taking the mound today, but there is no point in risking any salary towards him. He’s not going to pitch an entire game and has a very low probability of reaching value as a result. If you feel the need, you can risk it in tournaments, but I certainly wouldn’t.
Stack Options
- Chicago Cubs – Yes, the Cubbies are here again! I’m mainly putting them up here at the top because they’re facing another poor right-handed pitcher and they don’t have to deal with any weather hampering the hitting conditions. Maddon will still be tinkering with his lineup to try and find the ideal fit against right-handers, so expect a full squad today with the likes of Chris Coghlan, Tommy La Stella and company providing immense value.
2 and 3. Chase Field – Um, did you see what happened last night? The Astros poured 21 runs on the poor Diamondbacks and it feels like they are still circling the bases. I can’t say I expect a 20 run effort from either team, or even the teams combined, but this is where the offense is going to happen again today. Take advantage of a lot of value against right-handed pitchers that can be attacked and watch all the other lineups struggle in poor hitting conditions. I again love Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena, but expect you to load up on all the real sluggers in this game from both sides.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Kyle Schwarber -$4,400 – Chicago Cubs
- Miguel Monter-$3,600 – Chicago Cubs
- Jason Castro -$3,000 – Houston Astros
First Basemen
- Anthony Rizzo -$5,400 – Chicago Cubs
- Adam Lind -$4,100 – Milwaukee Brewers
- Paul Goldschmidt -$5,500 – Arizona Diamondbacks
Second Basemen
- Jose Altuve -$4,700 – Houston Astros
- Chris Coghlan -$3,600 – Chicago Cubs
- Howie Kendrick -$3,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Shortstop
- Carlos Correa -$5,000 – Houston Astros
- Starlin Castro -$3,500 – Chicago Cubs
- Ketel Marte -$3,900 – Seattle Mariners
Third Basemen
- Kris Bryant -$5,200 – Chicago Cubs
- Luis Valbuena -$3,700 – Houston Astros
- Derek Dietrich -$2,800 – Miami Marlins
Outfield
- Colby Rasmus -$3,600 – Houston Astros
- Andrew McCutchen -$4,800 – Pittsburgh Pirates
- George Springer -$4,700 – Houston Astros
- AJ Pollock -$4,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers
- AJ Burnett -$8,300 – Pittsburgh Pirates
- Max Scherzer -$13,200 – Washington Nationals
- Corey Kluber -$10,600 – Cleveland Indians
- Roenis Elias -$6,900 – Seattle Mariners
- Harvey/Grienke -GPP Only – $10,500/$12,600, respectively