Front Office

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 10, 2015

Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s six-game slate on DraftKings.

FORECAST

As always, it’s difficult to provide a perfect forecast hours before first pitch — especially when you’re not a meteorologist. Thankfully, our friend @KevinRothWx is a meteorologist and provides detailed updates on his Twitter feed, so give him a follow for the most up-to-date weather concerns. I can tell you that it appears as if New York (Blue Jays vs. Yankees) and Philadelphia (Cubs vs. Phillies) appear to be in line for some thunderstorms (>60% chance) at the time of this writing, so you may want to avoid the pitchers involved — especially in cash games — should that be the case tomorrow. Atlanta (Mets vs. Braves) could also see some thunderstorms, but there’s only about a 30% chance at this time. 

Pitching Perspective


If somehow the rain holds off in Philadelphia, Jake Arrieta is our top pitching option of the slate at $13,700. He faces a Philles’ squad that’s been more respectable as of late, but still owns the third-worst wOBA (.298) and wRC+ (85) when facing right-handed pitchers. The Cubs’ ace is up to 18 wins on the season — including victories in seven straight outings with a 5:1 K:BB and just two earned runs allowed — which should be enough for you to pay up in cash. Keep an eye on the weather, though.

Bartolo Colon and A.J. Burnett each come in as -155 favorites (as of Wednesday evening). Colon and the Mets could face some weather in Atlanta, which makes him less of a cash game option and more for those seeking upside in tournaments. And although the Braves don’t strikeout much against right-handed pitchers, they are the second-worst in baseball in wOBA and wRC+ versus righties. If the weather plays nice, Colon should be on your radar at just $7,900. A.J. Burnett gets the Brewers in his first start since returning from the disabled list. His last trio of starts in July are forgettable, but he looks to get back on track against a Milwaukee team that strikes out the eleventh-most in baseball against righties — 20.5%.

The Indians’ Danny Salazar comes in as the second-largest favorite of the day (-190) at home against the Tigers according to Vegas, so I felt the need to include him on this list. But Salazar is coming off a start in which he surrendered six earned runs with only one strikeout and a walk — against the same Tigers team. Against right-handers, the Tigers are in the middle of the pack in strikeouts, but are top ten in wOBA and wRC+. Since he took the beating last outing against Detroit, Salazar’s price dipped $800, so if you’re in for a tournament tilt, Salazar could be your Huckleberry.

Stack Options

The Padres torched a Rockies’ left-hander in San Diego on Wednesday and I’d look for them to do the same on Thursday against another lefty, Jorge De La Rosa. The temperature in San Diego will be in the high 80s to low 90s and the wind will be moving out towards right field, so the ball should have some zip on it as it leaves the bat. The top of Friars’ order — Myers, Solarte, Kemp, Upton and Gyorko — all make fine plays for a tournament stack. Justin Upton fares the worst of the bunch against southpaws, so if you want to stack without him, the top three and Gyroko would work just fine.

Every time the Tigers bat, they have the ability to put some crooked numbers on the board. They’ll face Danny Salazar — who they just put six runs up on last week — tomorrow in Cleveland as road dogs. But this game has one of the highest run totals of the day (8), so a stack of Tigers’ top five players in the order makes sense for a tournament play.

A few other stacks I can get behind are a Mariners’ mini-stack against left-hander Derek Holland, the Pirates against Wily Peralta and the Cubbies against Adam Morgan of the Phillies should they get their game in.

Player Rankings

Catchers:

  1. Brian McCann – $3,900 – New York Yankees
  2. Derek Norris – $2,900 – San Diego Padres
  3. Kyle Schwarber – $4,700 – Chicago Cubs
  4. A.J. Pierzynski – $3,300 – Atlanta Braves

First Basemen:

  1. Miguel Cabrera – $4,400 – Detroit Tigers
  2. Pedro Alvarez – $3,400 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  3. Mark Trumbo – $3,500 – Seattle Mariners
  4. Edwin Encarnacion – $4,400 – Toronto Blue Jays

Second Basemen:

  1. Jedd Gyorko – $2,800 – San Diego Padres
  2. Robinson Cano – $3,900 – Seattle Mariners
  3. Neil Walker – $3,700 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  4. Ian Kinsler – $3,900 – Detroit Tigers

Third Basemen:

  1. Miguel Cabrera – $4,400 – Detroit Tigers
  2. Yangervis Solarte – $3,300 – San Diego Padres
  3. Pedro Alvarez – $3,400 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  4. Kris Bryant – $4,900 – Chicago Cubs

Shortstop:

  1. Jung Ho Kang – $3,600 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  2. Andrelton Simmons – $2,800 – Atlanta Braves
  3. Javier Baez – $3,900 – Chicago Cubs
  4. Elvis Andrus – $3,100 – Texas Rangers

Outfielders:

  1. Matt Kemp – $4,200 – San Diego Padres
  2. Yoenis Cespedes – $5,100 – New York Mets
  3. Jacoby Ellsbury – $3,700 – New York Yankees
  4. Wil Myers – $4,300 – San Diego Padres
  5. Gregory Polanco – $3,700 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  6. Justin Upton – $4,100 – San Diego Padres
  7. Chris Coghlan – $3,300 – Chicago Cubs

Pitchers:

  1. Jake Arrieta – $13,700 – Chicago Cubs
  2. Bartolo Colon – $7,900 – New York Mets
  3. Felix Hernandez – $11,000 – Seattle Mariners
  4. Tyson Ross – $10,400 – San Diego Padres
  5. A.J. Burnett – $8,100 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Tournament option
  6. Danny Salazar – $10,600/Shelby Miller $8,600 – Tournament options
Previous post

2015 Fantasy Football: Week 1 Injury Report

Next post

Fantasy Baseball Final: September 10, 2015