Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 19, 2015
Below I’ve included a discussion on today’s pitching selections, the best teams to stack from and an individual set of player rankings for tonight’s slate on DraftKings.
Forecast
As of right now it appears that there will be no weather concerns today!
Pitching Perspective
So…about last night? Last night was loaded with pitching options and fast forward today where we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel to round up just a few. Of course, Clayton Kershaw takes the mound today, but as the question always is with him, can you possibly afford to pay up for him? Kershaw is over $15,000 and seemingly becomes impossible to fit into games where you’d like to get Coors Field exposure, but if you can find a lineup you like with him, don’t hesitate. He doesn’t need any more explaining – he’s the best.
Aside from Kershaw we’re left with Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir. So maybe I was stretching it with the “scraping the bottom of the barrel” talk, but given all of their salaries, roster construction will be a bit more difficult today.
The safest of that bunch will be the trio of Carrasco, Liriano and Hamels. Carrasco comes in with the highest salary and is the second largest favorite of this group, but I like his matchup the best. He’ll be taking on a White Sox lineup that has fallen in the middle of the pack in terms of K% against right-handed pitchers, but don’t expect “middle of the pack” against Carrasco and his strikeout ability. He’s pitched quietly to a 2.80 xFIP this year while striking out over 10 hitters per nine innings. He comes with the highest cost of this group, but I’d splurge on him in tournaments or cash games.
Liriano and Hamels have similar matchups today in terms of run prevention, but both come with accessible price tags, and Hamels is a sizable favorite. Liriano is on the opposite end of the Kershaw game, and while that makes him a definite underdog, his matchup with the Dodgers doesn’t frighten me too much. Liriano has managed to increase his K/9 this season, while eliminating over a free pass per nine innings which actually makes a huge difference in his performance. Assuming he keeps hitters off the bases via the walk and shows us some command tonight, I like his chances. He’s perhaps a little too volatile for me to trust in cash games with the other options on the board, but I like him for tournaments. Hamels on the other end will be pitching to a Mariners team that’s receiving a significant positive park shift. While often that might scare people away from him, the majority of the Mariners best hitters are left-handed, neutralizing any platoon advantage. Of course he’ll have to deal with Nelson Cruz, but the team as a whole hasn’t been that effective against left-handed pitchers (.317 wOBA). I’m on board with Hamels tonight.
Gray and Kazmir will both square off with each other tonight in an important game for the Houston Astros. These guys have different styles and carry different upsides for DFS purposes. Gray has great run prevention skills, but his ability to strikeout hitters isn’t astounding, sort of pushing him by the way side a little bit. Kazmir on the other hand is the complete opposite, giving us a solid window of strikeout upside, while not having the best run prevention skills. I think either one is in play for tournaments, but I’d be hesitant to throw out either in cash games.
Stack Options
1 and 2. Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres – Yes, this is sort of cheating by combining these guys up here, but get over it. They’re going to be the most popular stacks as no one really stands out in the night slate. A pair of soft tossing left-handers will bode well for some of the sluggers on the Padres, while Nolan Arenado becomes my favorite Rockie tonight. You’ll be able to find value once these lineups come out, but as of right now, these guys have so many different bench options it’s impossible to predict who it might be. Just load up on these two teams, and you’ll be fine.
3. Texas Rangers – The only other team with an implied run total north of five runs on the night slate is the Texas Rangers. The Rangers will also be facing a southpaw tonight in Vidal Nuno. This sets up well for their right-handed bats, Mike Napoli, Delino Deshields JR and Adrian Beltre as the whole crew will try to take advantage of Nuno’s home run prone game. He’s allowing 1.54 HR/9 – that’s good news for potential stacks.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Derek Norris -$4,300 – San Diego Padres
- Wilin Rosario -$3,100 – Colorado Rockies
- Salvador Perez -$3,600 – Kansas City Royals
First Basemen
- Mike Napoli -$3,500 – Texas Rangers
- Freddie Freeman -$4,300 – Atlanta Braves
- Yangervis Solarte -$4,300 – San Diego Padres
Second Basemen
- Jedd Gyorko -$3,500 – San Diego Padres
- Ben Zobrist -$4,400 – Kansas City Royals
- Scooter Gennett -$3,100 – Milwaukee Brewers
Third Basemen
- Nolan Arenado -$5,700 – Colorado Rockies
- Adrian Beltre -$4,400 – Texas Rangers
- Elien Herrera -$2,700 – Milwaukee Brewers
Shortstops
- Jose Reyes -$4,400 – Colorado Rockies
- Elvis Andrus -$3,700 – Texas Rangers
- Andres Blanco -$2,400 – Philadelphia Phillies
Outfield
- Matt Kemp -$5,100 – San Diego Padres
- Justin Upton -$5,900 – San Diego Padres
- Wil Myers -$5,500 – San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers
- Clayton Kershaw -$15,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Carlos Carrasco -$11,400 – Cleveland Indians
- Cole Hamels -$10,200 – Texas Rangers
- Francisco Liriano -$10,000 – Pittsburgh Pirates
- Sonny Gray -$10,600 – Oakland A’s
- Scott Kazmir -$9,200 – Houston Astros