Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 20, 2015
Below I’ve included a discussion on the pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as an individual set of player rankings for today’s set of games at DraftKings.
Forecast
All clear!
Pitching Perspective
While Clayton Kershaw day has since passed, there are plenty of solid pitching options today at reasonable salaries. To start, Stephen Strasburg is a huge favorite today at home against the Miami Marlins. Strasburg was incredible his last time out, and I’m expecting the same type of performance again today. He’s striking out nearly 10.5 hitters per nine innings and has pitched to a 2.94 xFIP this season. As I’ve noted many times before when picking on the Marlins, they’re near the bottom of the league in both wOBA and wRC+ and are a great team to pick on without Giancarlo Stanton. Strasburg once again has an accessible salary, and makes for the easiest selection of the day.
After Strasburg, there is a whole host of options that fall either slightly above or below him on the salary scale. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester and Matt Harvey all take the mound and each has something working in their favor. Starting from the beginning of this list, Cole will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road in Los Angeles. In all fairness, the Dodgers have been one of the best offenses in the league this season, but I’m still on board with using Cole based on his strikeout upside. Of all these options he has perhaps the most difficult opposing lineup, but he makes for a great tournament play.
Martinez and Lester square off against each other in a finale of a big series for both teams. Martinez has really come on as one of the better starters in the National League this year, posting great strikeout and ground ball numbers. While the Cubs are a very powerful offense, they are also very strikeout prone, leaving Martinez with a really nice upside in tonight’s game. His salary is really accessible, and while the matchup could be worse, I’m not ready to pick on the Cubs in cash games. Martinez makes for a solid tournament value. Lester on the other hand is an option with a safer floor and a similar upside for just a little bit more in salary. The Cubs are in must win mode if they want a chance at the NL Central crown, and Lester is poised for big things tonight. He’s been well deserving of how he got paid recently, and I think it continues tonight.
Much like Martinez, Harvey hits the board as a solid tournament option today. Harvey and the Mets have been quite a controversy lately, given his inning limits and all. As a result, I’m relegating him to tournament play only. He gets a beat up Yanks lineup in an extreme negative park shift, but given his salary I’m passing in favor of other options. He’s still got a Matt Harvey upside (striking out about a hitter per inning), although his strikeout numbers have dipped this year. If you’re feeling risky, he’s not a bad option, especially given the Sunday Night Baseball sweat.
Stack Options
- Coors Field – There’s no point in beating around the bush. It’s the best run scoring environment in baseball, and you want to take advantage as much as possible. James Shields has been incredible home run prone this season, and Kyle Kendrick is perhaps the worst pitcher in baseball. Literally everyone in this game is in play. Load ’em up.
- Toronto Blue Jays – Funny to find the Jays here, huh? No, not really, but they face a washed up left-handed starter in their own home ball park – it screams stack. The Jays are notorious for beating up poor left-handed starters, and I don’t see them doing anything less than that today. Their implied run total sits at around five and a half runs and they’re just as safe as the Coors Field stacks. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista will make for solid plays in both cash games and tournaments, as well as the rest of the lineup.
- Houston Astros – The common theme of these stacks has been picking on bad pitching, and that’s what I’m going for here against Aaron Brooks. The Astros have that rare lineup combination of power and speed, especially at the top with George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. The Astros will be the most tournament oriented lineup, but if they boom, they can really boom. Brooks is one of the worst arms on the slate and you’ll need to differentiate yourself from all the Coors Field and Toronto stacks.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Russell Martin -$4,100 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Derek Norris -$3,700 – San Diego Padres
- Wilin Rosario -$2,400 – Colorado Rockies
First Basemen
- Edwin Encarnacion -$5,000 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Yangervis Solarte -$4,000 – San Diego Padres
- Justin Morneau -$3,400 – Colorado Rockies
Second Basemen
- Jose Altuve -$4,700 – Houston Astros
- Jedd Gyorko -$3,300 – San Diego Padres
- DJ Lemahieu -$4,100 – Colorado Rockies
Third Basemen
- Josh Donaldson -$6,100 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Nolan Arenado -$4,800 – Colorado Rockies
- Corey Spangenberg -$3,100 – San Diego Padres
Shortstops
- Jose Reyes -$4,100 – Colorado Rockies
- CArlos Correa -$4,800 – Houston Astros
- Jed Lowrie -$4,100 – Houston Astros
Outfield
- Carlos Gonzalez -$4,300 – Colorado Rockies
- Jose Bautista -$5,900 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Charlie Blackmon -$4,400 – Colorado Rockies
- Matt Kemp -$5,100 – San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers
- Stephen Strasburg -$10,400 – Washington Nationals
- Jon Lester -$10,300 – Chicago Cubs
- Colin McHugh -$8,000 – Houston Astros
- Gerrit Cole -$11,000 -Pittsburgh Pirates
- Carlos Martinez -$9,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
- Matt Harvey -$11,800 – New York Mets