Welcome back to The Fix! This time of year is great for the baseball DFS grinders. Everyone is building NFL (and CFB) lineups and spending a little less time on baseball. Let’s keep that edge. We have a 10-game slate tonight on DraftKings, ignoring the White Sox and Tigers matinee. I’ll give you my thoughts on the slate, and at the bottom we have rankings of the top plays at each position. If you’re on Twitter, you can find me @RyNoonan.

Forecast

It’s difficult to nail down weather hours and hours before first pitch. Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates. Early indications are we’ll see some rain along the east coast, but nothing too severe.

Pitching Perspective

This is not a sexy slate of arms, but we do have a few upper-echelon guys on the bump, so let’s start there.

The highest priced option on tonight’s slate is David Price ($12,400) who’s taking on the Yankees at home. It feels as if every other start for Price is against the Yankees. It’s really not that far off, as this is the fourth time he’s faced them in his last 10 outings. The Yankees are one of the league’s top clubs against left-handed pitching (.333 wOBA/109 wRC+) but Price has managed to find some success against them. His strikeout rate has climbed a bit since his move up north, coming in a 9.16 K/9 for the season, and Vegas has installed the Jays as a huge favorite (-230). I care more about the implied-run total (3.2) than how big of a favorite they are because that’s more indicative of the player’s skill.

Next up is Chris Archer ($11,700) and the Rays in Boston. Archer has not been particularly sharp of late and had his hands full two starts ago against these Red Sox down in Tampa. He’s $900 less today than he was on that day, but it still might be a bit pricey for what we’ve seen of late. Archer offers the most strikeout upside of all the pitchers tonight, but the Red Sox have one of the lowest whiff rates in the game against right-handed pitching (17.5%). That upside makes him a viable option for tournaments but I don’t love him in cash.

Coming in just a tick below Archer tonight is Dallas Keuchel ($11,400). Fresh off of his worst start of the season, Keuchel takes the ball at home tonight against the Angels, who have been quite the disappointment this season outside of some guy named Mike Trout. Their 87 wRC+ and .291 wOBA are both among the league’s worst marks. He comes at quite a discount tonight since he was $2,000 more two starts ago when he faced…..yup, the Angels. He’s my favorite top tier option tonight and I’m hoping last outing’s beating keeps people away.

I’m not much of a Jaime Garcia ($10,300) fan as far as DFS is concerned, and I have no idea why he’s so expensive tonight. He’s a solid pitcher, but he’s been so far out over his skis over the past month and it’s finally starting to catch up with him. I don’t want to give too much weight to one start but he faced the Reds last week and they pounded him, leaving Garcia with a negative (-4.3) fantasy day. I can’t pay $10K+ for a pitcher who’s K/9 is comfortably below league average.

Some other pitching quick takes:

• Gio Gonzalez ($9,600) has mopped up on some of the league’s worst clubs of late, but he’s looked good in doing so. He’s posted some strong strikeout totals, including 12 in his last start, and takes on an Orioles club that’s accumulating a strikeout rate that’s creeping up into the mid-20’s (23.3%). He can be excellent when he’s not walking the park.
• Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,300) has been sharp lately, but he’s not a viable option today. First his opponent, the Rays, mash left-handed pitching (109 wRC+) and he’s on an innings restriction as the season winds down.
• Shelby Miller ($8,800) is dying for the season to end, apparently. He’s been terrible in September (8.36 ERA) and the Mets have been crushing right-handed pitching since about July 31st (YO!).
• A sneaky cheap option tonight is John Lamb ($6,800) against the Cardinals. Lamb has given up a decent amount of hard-hit contact, something that’s not ideal for a fly ball pitcher, but he’s been BABIP’d like crazy (.396) which is an extremely high BABIP for a fly ball pitcher. His 10.22 K/9 is especially appealing because the Cardinals have struggled against left-handed pitching (84 wRC+), striking out 23.5% of the time.

Stack Options

According to Vegas, our best bets today are the Pirates (5.7 implied-runs), Rockies (4.9), and Blue Jays (4.9)

Ah yes, Coors Field. A slate is always a bit different when Coors is in play and tonight will be no different. The Pirates have a huge implied-run total tonight against Jonathan Gray, but Gray hasn’t been quite as bad as his ERA indicates. His FIP (3.71) isn’t great, but he’s better than a 5+ ERA guy. He has struggled against both left (.337 wOBA) and right-handed (.352) hitters this season, so fire away.

The Rockies have a relatively low total compared to what we typically see. They’re facing A.J. Burnett, who’s still trying to find his way back to form after missing nearly two months. The fact that Burnett’s season long numbers are solid means the Rockies studs have suppressed salaries in comparison to what we typically see when they’re at home. I like their big-3 here.

This will likely be a bullpen-heavy game for the Yankees tonight, as Adam Warren is on the bump. He’s pitched well in limited action this season, but he’s not stretched out enough to work deep in to this one.

Other offensive notes:

• I mentioned that the Rays are in a good spot against left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, but his innings limit worries me as far as the Rays are concerned. If Rodriguez is lifted early for a right-handed reliever, that’s much less appealing since the Rays have struggled to score run against righties.
• The Cubs are in a plus spot against Wily Peralta in Chicago. They have a 4.8 implied-run total and Peralta has struggled against both lefties (.372) and righties (.344). They’re a bit pricey but not enough to stay away from their top of the order.
• I mentioned earlier that Shelby Miller has been a dumpster fire in September and that could continue tonight against the Mets (4.4 runs). Miller’s decent seasonal stats have the Mets’ stars coming at a discount.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Kyle Schwarber – Chicago Cubs $4,600

2. Hank Conger – Houston Astros $2,800

3. Wellington Castillo – Arizona Diamondbacks $3,200

First Base

1. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs $5,000

2. Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates $4,100 (3B)

3. Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks $5,100

4. Justin Morneau – Colorado Rockies $3,500

Second Base

1. Chris Coghlan – Chicago Cubs $3,500 (OF)

2. Neil Walker – Pittsburgh Pirates $4,500

3. Daniel Murphy – New York Mets $3,400 (3B)

4. Logan Forsythe – Tampa Bay Rays $3,900 (1B)

Third Base

1. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies $4,900

2. Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs $4,900

3. Adonis Garcia – Atlanta Braves $2,800

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa – Houston Astros 4,500

2. Jose Reyes – Colorado Rockies $4,100

3. Cristhian Adames– Colorado Rockies $2,000

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies $4,400

2. Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies $4,700

3. Yoenis Cespedes – New York Mets $4,500

4. Corey Dickerson – Colorado Rockies $3,700

5. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates $5,700

6. Trayce Thompson – Chicago White Sox $3,500

Starting Pitcher

1. Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros $11,400

2. David Price – Toronto Blue Jays $12,400

3. Gio Gonzalez – Washington Nationals $9,600

4. John Lamb – Cincinnati Reds $6,800

5. Chris Archer – Tampa Bay Rays $11,700