Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: February 2nd
Today’s NBA daily fix features a couple players at each position that I highly recommend for tonight’s 8-game NBA slate. I’ll mention top players that I am paying up for, value gems, some fades and at the end I’ll give my top cash game options at each position. First, let’s look at some early notes looking at tonight’s matchups.
DAILY NOTES
Potential blowouts: Philadelphia @ Cleveland (-16.5), LA Clippers (-9 but beat them by 40 two weeks ago) @ Nets, Orlando @ Oklahomas City (-13.5), Minnesota @ Dallas (-12)
Highest point total lines: LAC/BKN 200, MIL/TOR 203.5, ORL/OKC 207.5, MIN/DAL 206.5, MEM/PHX 204
Inactives: Rajon Rondo, Shabazz Muhammad, BRANDON KNIGHT, KEVIN DURANT
Questionable: Victor Oladipo, John Wall, Ricky Rubio, Mo Williams, Zach LaVine
POINT GUARD:
Jeff Teague ($7400) – I planned to talk John Wall as my top dollar play at point guard tonight but with his lingering headaches causing him to be questionable, I’ll probably go mid-level or less tonight at PG. Teague is one of my favorite mid-level targets tonight going against the Pelicans. He put up 42 last time against New Orleans and that was with a tougher defending PG in Jrue Holiday on him. Teague has somewhat capped upside as he rarely goes over 40 but he hits value more than not at this price level.
Brandon Knight ($7200–KNIGHT HAS BEEN RULED OUT TONIGHT!) – Knight has come through with 30+ DK points in eight of the Bucks last nine games and continues to be under priced for as consistent as he’s been. His lack of 50+ point DK nights is likely the reasoning for the value, but there’s nights like tonight that I am just fine taking a safe 30-40 DK points to the bank at a discount like this. Knight should be the driving force in what will be an uptempo game in Toronto for the Bucks.
Cheap risk options: With Rondo out tonight it will be tough to not get Devin Harris ($3100) into your lineups. While big upside may not be there, he seems a safe 20+ at near minimum and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he hit around 30 with plenty of playing time. Some say J.J. Barea ($3000) could actually start for the Mavs, but both players should see a decent bit of minutes and either or both make solid punt plays, I prefer Harris. Greivis Vasquez ($4000) is my other punt option at PG where he’ll start at SG for the Raptors and I feel could put up 20+ DK points.
SHOOTING GUARD:
Kevin Martin ($5100) – I’m going cheap on most teams at shooting guard tonight (only upper priced SGs I’m considering are Tyreke Evans ($7900) and Monta Ellis ($7500) and my favorite option is Kevin Martin. This will be his fourth game back on the floor and while having his workload limited in the first two games, he played 37 minutes in the last game showing he’s been unleashed. Martin shot just 31% in that game but still came through with a decent 24.5 DK points. Signs all point to this being Kevin’s breakout game against Dallas who struggles against opposing shooting guards. Bombs away for Kev tonight and hopefully he’ll be hitting his targets.
O.J. Mayo ($4500) – I was torn on Mayo or his teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo ($5600) for this spot but the $1200 of savings in going Mayo swayed me. Mayo has been as consistent as it gets recently going for 25+ DK points in five straight games. At this price it’s hard not to keep going to this well until he punishes us and take off on the interstate in a white bronco… oh, wrong O.J.
Cheap risk Options: If Vic Oladipo misses tonight’s game for the Magic, look for Evan Fournier ($3700) to be an outstanding plug-and-play option. Feeling extra risky and assume the Thunder will massacre the Magic? Willie Green ($3000) has been playing backup point guard and while he’s been far from reliable, if he jumps from 18 to 25 minutes in this one because of garbage time, he could hit real well as a punt play.
SMALL FORWARD:
Kevin Durant ($10,000- RULED OUT TONIGHT!) – This is incredibly too low of a price to ignore for one of the best scorers and overall players in the league. I don’t care who he is playing and if he’ll miss part of the fourth due to a blowout, I am rolling out KD in 100% of my lineups. Last time against this same Magic team playing just 28 minutes Durant piled up 50 DK points, yeah. Any chance I get to use a top-5 fantasy player at this reasonable of a price, I’m taking it to the bank.
Khris Middleton ($5300) – Another Buck who doesn’t ever blow up for huge night but hands out 25 DK points basically every game is Middleton. When you’re going value, you look for consistent minutes played and a fair track record and Middleton has been both of those the last month.
Cheap risk options: I’m not feeling much outside of the above two at SF tonight but Kent Bazemore ($4000) will draw another start with Carroll and Sefolosha out and while Baze was a dud in the last game, the fact that he’s played 70 minutes over the past two games is big. Hopefully tonight he can turn that PT into FPTS.
POWER FORWARD:
Zach Randolph ($8600) – ZBo aka Double-double errrryday! Right now it doesn’t matter who is in front of ZBo, he’s jump kicking them til there’s no life left and taking their souls (fatality!). Zach hasn’t given less than 36 DK points in any of his last 11 games and most have been in the 40s. I’ll pay for a good bit of Randolph shares tonight and in the others I’ll likely roll out Paul Millsap ($8200).
John Henson ($4600) – I hate listing a Buck at each position thus far but they all seem to come through even if none are elite performers — plus they’re priced well. Henson has been money when starting and/or playing over 24 minutes and that’ll be the case again tonight with no Zaza around. Look for him to rack up a small double double and add a couple of blocks.
Markieff Morris ($6000) – I should almost say that me mentioning him is a sign to STAY AWAY, because every single time I mention Kieff he puts up a dud and this one seems like a trap, yet I can’t steer clear of it. Only $6000 price tag, average of 34 DK points over the last three games, put up 36.5 against this same Memphis team just over a week ago… Sigh, roll him out as a nice value option tonight with upside but you’ve been warned about the BigZack/Kieff curse.
Cheap risk options: Not much to find here besides possibly Patrick Patterson ($4100) who over the last ten days has averaged 26 DK points and played over 30 minutes in two straight.
CENTER:
Al Jefferson ($7600) – Big Al is still under-priced since returning from injury and you should continue to use him until they adjust it. 44-30-41-33 DK points in his last four and if that pattern continues, we should see a 40 point night ahead for the big fella.
Tyson Chandler ($6300) – It’s not an easy matchup and he had his last bad game against this same Timberwolves team, yet here I am advising him tonight. Chandler is just priced for use and he’s gone for 30 DK points in three straight looking like his normal glass cleaning self. I’m expecting another dirty-30 from the pick-n-rolling vet.
Cheap risk options: It’s a dry well when it comes to value at center tonight. Timofey Mozgov ($5000) has gone for 20+ DK points on average lately and faces a weak Sixers team but still is more expensive than I’m comfortable with the way he’s been played. Alex Len ($3500) is the last of the value Cs I’d look at but his playing time and recent play have been quite sporadic to assume anything here.
Cash game rankings: (These are not in the order of who I think will score the most. I factor in price and production to formulate my favorite plays for the night.)
PG:
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Jeff Teague
3) Devin Harris
4) Jerryd Bayless
5) Mike Conley
SG:
1) Kevin Martin
2) O.J. Mayo
3) Giannis Antetokounmpo
4) Tyreke Evans
5) DeMar DeRozan
SF:
1) Khris Middleton
2) Kent Bazemore
PF:
1) Zach Randolph
2) Paul Millsap
3) John Henson
4) Tristan Thompson
5) Markieff Morris
C:
1) Al Jefferson
2) Tyson Chandler
3) Al Horford
4) Steven Adams
For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44