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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: February 4th

Durant is out, unleash Westbrook Photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Durant is out, unleash Westbrook
Photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

 

Another day another DFS lineup to get set! Below you will find my top player picks, value options, cash game rankings and for the first time I’ll post my mid-afternoon gut instinct lineup for tonight’s 11-game NBA DFS slate on DraftKings. Before we get to the player picks, let’s look at a few notes for tonight’s slate:

Highest total point lines: Dallas @ Golden State 218 – Dallas @ Houston 204.5 – Orlando @ San Antonio 203

Inactives: Kevin Durant, Zaza Pachulia, Ersan Ilyasova

 

POINT GUARD:

Stephen Curry ($10,300) – There’s a lot of options at point tonight so it’s easy to assume you can save a few bucks and take a mid-tier guy and that’s definitely debatable. I just can’t steer totally clear of the MVP tonight though. He’s been great in back-to-backs so that’s not a deterrent at all for me especially since they won via blowout last night so he only played 28 minutes. Plus, the Mavs have nobody to even slightly slow down Curry. 50+ DK points in this one seems a layup. (Since writing this though Durant was ruled out and now I lean to Westbrook over Curry as shown in the rankings at the bottom.)

Jarrett Jack ($6700) – Jack has been great lately but his price still hasn’t fully reflected that. In the Nets last game — although hit hit the game winner — Jarrett had an off night but still managed to scavenge 28 DK points. In the games prior to that: 67-46-34-17-35-38-49. I like him to produce well again tonight against Toronto who have been generous to opposing PGs lately.

D.J. Augustin ($6200) – Another point man who stepped up when an injury occurred and ran with it. I just finished watching DJ run wild on the Knicks and he was crazy impressive. He’s been an absolute beast three of the last four games and at this price I’ll slot him in at the PG or G slot on most of my lineups.

Cheap risk options: If Knight sits Jerryd Bayless ($4300) matches up really well against the Lakers and he’s been hot lately averaging 29 DK points in three of the last four. Marcus Smart ($3400) should draw another start tonight and while he’s not going to blow up, he should hit in right around 25 DK points which is solid for a punt play. J.J. Barea ($3400) is a fantastic value play especially is Devin Harris misses the game after injuring his leg at the end of the last Mavs game.

 

SHOOTING GUARD:

DeMar DeRozan ($7000) – Yesssssss. I am in love with DeRozan tonight with a fair price tag and a good matchups. DDR is coming off of a down game that was preceded by 40 and 46 DK point nights, the latter of which against the same Brooklyn team they face tonight.

Jimmy Butler ($7500) – Another high level two-guard with a nice matchup and not priced overly high. The Bulls should dominate down low in this one, Rose will be slashing away and all of that equates to open looks for Butler on kick out passes plus and basket cuts.

Cheap risk options: I know I praised O.J. Mayo ($4400) Monday and said I’d use him until he burned us, and then he went out there and got ejected after playing just 11 minutes, but I’ll be spreading Mayo on my lineups again tonight. Avery Bradley ($4200) is another cheap SG option although he relies pretty heavily on his points which is always playing with fire. Avery has scored 43 points for the Celtics over the past two games and the Nuggets are really weak against opposing shooting guards.

 

SMALL FORWARD:

Andrew Wiggins ($6900) – Wiggins has played 40.1 minutes per game over the Wolves last six and he’s really been looked at a lot on the offensive end. Having Ricky Rubio back is also a plus for getting Wiggins open looks. Luol Deng will have problems keeping up with the young fresh legs of the 2014 #1 overall draft pick, and at home Wiggins shot 49% in January compared to 44% on the road so the home court tonight is an added bonus.

Khris Middleton ($5600) – The price is slowly on the rise for Khris but he’s still hitting value and the minutes he’s playing just make him such a solid SF play lately. Even if Middleton hits his floor tonight, that’s about 24 DK points and I’m ok with that as my mid-tier SF play. Hopefully his hot hand will carry over from the last game where he went off for 45 DK points.

Cheap risk options: C.J. Miles ($3300) was limited last week in his return from injury against the Knicks but in the following game Saturday versus the Kings, Miles played a full 30 minutes and despite being ice cold from deep (1-9 on 3PA) managed 27 DK points. Miles has a nice offensive role with the Pacers and when he plays good minutes he will generally produce well and at this price, he’s a major bargain. Danilo Gallinari ($3200) had his best game in recent memory last night in a loss to the Sixers scoring 22 points in 26 minutes. It’s hard to guess minutes night-to-night for Denver but at $3200 he makes for a solid punt play as he’s at least had a 20, 23 and 30 DK point nights in his last four games.

 

POWER FORWARD:

Pau Gasol ($9300) – There are so many good options at PF tonight that it will be really tough to decide which to use, but I am putting most of my chips on Pau tonight at Houston. Greg Monroe went off for 40 DK points against this same Rockets team a couple nights back and Pau should do that at minimum tonight. 41-50-58-47 DK points in his last four games, Pau is dominating anyone in his way right now and we should see much of the same tonight. While I love AntD tonight also, I think I like saving the $1500 slightly more.

Tim Duncan ($7600) – There’s obvious cause for blowout concern in this one but I feel like Orlando can keep it at least competitive until the fourth. The Spurs had a few days off and have likely been drilled by Popovich after getting embarrassed by the Clippers in their last game. The Magic are the poor next team in line and Vucevic is a good rebounder but he’s far from defensive stopper. Duncan should hit 40+ DK points in right about 30 minutes played tonight.

Cheap risk options: John Henson ($5000) will start at center again for the Bucks tonight with Zaza dressing but unlikely to play. Henson should have a nice night of boards and blocks against the very soft Lakers big men. Aaron Gordon ($3300) has played an average of 28 minutes the last two games and while he hasn’t done anything worth raving about, he has a good shot to bring in solid boards tonight and if he can hit half of his eight shots you have around a 20 point night. There’s not many punt options at PF tonight so if I had to roll one out, it’d be him but I doubt I will go that avenue. Tarik Black ($3000) will be starting at center for the Lakers tonight but I wouldn’t expect much out of him at all but he’s a minimum priced punt option if you want to clothes your eyes and take a half-court heave praying he can put up 26 DK points like he did when he received 22 minutes against the Heat a couple weeks ago.

 

CENTER:

Nikola Vucevic ($8200) – This really isn’t too bad of a price for Vucevic due to his less dominant play of late. The Spurs are very kind to opposing centers box scores though like their last two games DeAndre grabbed 19 boards and Jefferson brought down 16 while scoring 17 points. Nikola can definitely rebound and score with the best of them and I think this is going to be the game he reminds DFS players what he’s capable of on any given night.

Joakim Noah ($6400) – Noah recently told Chicago beat writers that he feels better right now than he’s felt in a long time and it’s shown in his play. Over the past few games he’s been back to his old ways of filling up the stat sheet averaging 12 points, 10 boards, 6.5 assists and one block and assist. His DK points in those 3: 50-46-35 and with no Dwight Howard for the Rockets tonight, Noah should continue his return to studness tour.

Cheap risk options: Robert Sacre ($3300) is about the only guy under $5k tonight at center that I’d even think on using but he’s not starting tonight, so he loses a little bit of his enticement.

 

Cash game rankings:

PG:
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Stephen Curry
3) D.J. Augustin
4) Jarrett Jack
5) J.J. Barea (if Harris is out)
6) Brandon Knight

SG:
1) DeMar DeRozan
2) Jimmy Butler
3) Monta Ellis
4) O.J. Mayo
5) Kevin Martin
6) Eric Gordon
7) Avery Bradley
8) Giannis Antetokounmpo

SF:
1) Andrew Wiggins
2) Khris Middleton
3) C.J. Miles
4) Josh Smith
5) Danilo Gallinari

PF:
1) Pau Gasol
2) Anthony Davis
3) Tim Duncan
4) Carlos Boozer
5) John Henson

C:
1) Nikola Vucevic
2) Joakim Noah
3) Hassan Whiteside
4) Brook Lopez (put up 63 DK points on the Raptors a couple nights ago)
5) Andre Drummond

 

Here is my initial gut instinct lineup that is sure to change a thousand times between now and tip-off). I went top heavy then three cheap risk guys that I feel can hit value. This is generally my style of lineup for cash games. Use this lineup at your own risk, if it goes for 210 points and you have zero cashes that’s not on me, it’s on you for choosing to use these guys. May work better for you to see my base and make some tweaks or go totally different. Good luck tonight.

PG: Russell Westbrook
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Pau Gasol
C: Joakim Noah
G: O.J. Mayo
F: C.J. Miles
U: J.J. Barea

For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44

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