Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: January 10th
This post covers the seven game evening slate of NBA contests on DraftKings beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Below I will discuss two players at each position that I highly recommend tonight. In addition to the two player breakdowns per position, I’ll add a few cheap risk options and tell you which ballers I am fading (not using) tonight. At the end I will list the top-5 players I’ll be using at each position in cash games tonight. Remember that this is written up in advance of any starting lineup or most inactive updates. Be sure to keep your eyes on Twitter and/or Rotoworld for updates that could change things in a big way. Good luck to you all and let’s get money tonight!
Point Guards:
Jarrett Jack ($6400) – I’m going with mostly value plays at PG tonight, and the top guy on my list is Jack. With Deron WIlliams out for awhile, the Nets offense will be controlled by Jack who always produces when DWill is inactive. Last night Jack put up 39 DK points, and I’d expect close to the same again tonight even in a tougher matchup.
Trey Burke ($5400) – Burke is another good value play based on usage alone. I’m not a big fan of his game but the Jazz have no other options right now, and Burke is playing big minutes and taking a ton of shots. Luckily for us his percentages don’t matter in DFS, so look for Burke to shoot and pass his way to a 30 point DK night against Houston.
Cheap risk plays: D.J. Augustin ($3900) hasn’t been consistent but he’s done well DFS-wise in two of his last three for a cheap play. If Mo Williams sits out again, Zach LaVine ($3500) will draw another start and play around 30 minutes. His game is far from polished, but if you need a cheap risk play, he’s got opportunity for sure if starting. If you need a dead minimum play, Luke Ridnour ($3000) has played more lately including 25 minutes last night and could get even more run tonight when this game gets out of hand early.
PGs I’m fading tonight: Derrick Rose
Shooting Guards:
Jimmy Butler ($8500) – Jimmy is coming off of a mediocre (for him) game last night where he shot 2/12 against a tough Wizards defense. Tonight he takes on the young Bucks who are 23rd against opposing shooting guards, which should lead to a really strong bounce-back game. Look for Butler to score and defend his way to a 35+ DK point night.
Danny Green ($5500) – Danny Green is one of the more underrated players in the league, which is typical for a Spur. Green’s ability to score and rack up steals and blocks makes him a really fantasy-friendly player, and tonight should be no different as he takes on the Timberwolves who are the worst team in the NBA at stopping opposing shooting guards. Manu Ginobili left last night’s game with an injury, and knowing the Spurs he will miss this game only adding to Green’s appeal.
Cheap risk plays: Jodie Meeks ($4300) gets about 12 shots per night and his fantasy night goes as those 12 shots do. He chips in so little elsewhere that you’re really just hoping for him to be hot and score near 20 NBA points for a grand total of around 24 DK points. He’s a risk but at least you know he’ll get his chances. Avery Bradley ($4100) may be the best SG cheap play of the night even against a fairly tough defense. You know the minutes will be there and he should have plenty of chances to score the ball. Look for a cheap 25 DK points from Bradley.
SGs I’m fading: Wesley Matthews and Victor Oladipo
Small Forwards:
Andrew Wiggins ($6600) – I’ll admit that when I first glanced at the games for tonight’s slate I immediately thought “I’m fading Wiggins against the Spurs,” but there’s so few legitimate options at SF tonight that you gotta roll with the hot hand. I am concerned that this game could get ugly and/or the Spurs will game plan the rookie and lock him down, but he’s playing a ton of minutes, chipping in all over the stat sheet and is at a really fair price for how well he’s played recently. I would definitely fade him in GPPs as he’ll be higher than 50% owned, and to finish high in a big GPP pool you have to go against the consensus to have a better chance.
Evan Turner ($5300) – Jeff Green may or may not be traded to the Grizzlies by the time tonight’s game is played, but they aren’t going to risk Green getting hurt and destroying a trade that’s inevitably going to get done. This leaves the court open for Turner to run the show, and last night that led to nine points, 15 boards, seven dimes and two steals. Turner should run the point-forward again tonight and as seen last night, even if his shot is off (shot 3/15), he can still have a big fantasy night.
Cheap risk plays: Khris Middleton ($4800) has been reasonably great lately and is tough not to use at his price because his floor is 20 and his ceiling is 40 DK points. He will be heavily owned. Need to go minimum? Pick your poison betwee Kyle Singler ($3000), Chase Budinger ($3000) and Joe Ingles ($3000). Singler is starting and had a really nice game last night (16 points – 6 rebounds – 5 assists) against the Hawks, so maybe he stays hot one more night. Budinger has a low ceiling but has accrued 17 DK points in the past two games and is playing good minutes. Ingles is starting for the Jazz and also can’t be expected to do anything significant, but if you have to go minimum, he does play big minutes and can get you around 20 DK points if he plays his usual game.
SFs I’m fading: Josh Smith
Power Forwards:
Derrick Favors ($7900) – Favors is so talented and has been playing really strong recently putting up 40+ DK points in three straight including last night even with Serge Ibaka manning him up the majority of the game. Tonight he will go to work in Houston against the inferior Rocket power forwards. Rudy Gobert starting alongside of him keeps teams from being able to use their (when applicable) better defending center on Favors. Look for Favors to show up big for the Jazz and deliver his fourth-straight 40+ DK point night.
Greg Monroe ($7500) – The Pistons had their seven-game winning streak snapped last night in a close loss to the also sizzling hot Hawks, but the standout play of Monroe continued notching his fourth-straight double-double. The Nets will be Monroe’s next victim as Mason Plumlee will try to slow Greg down, but in the end the Piston power forward will hit value once again for his fantasy owners.
Cheap risk plays: Pick a Celtic, any celtic! Two more guys benefitting from the Jeff Green and Brandan Wright trades are Jae Crowder ($3400) and Brandon Bass ($3300). Crowder drew the start at SF last night and had a solid line resulting in 29 DK points. Bass played 26 minutes off the bench and put up 31 DK points. It’s been one helluva headache trying to figure out which Celtics will get big minutes night-to-night, but with two of the roster-crowders gone, these two should play around 20-25 minutes nightly.
PFs I’m fading: Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan and Nerlens Noel
Centers:
Brook Lopez ($7200) – With Drummond sick, Dwight having a tough matchup for his price and Vucevic in a big blowout game, Brook Lopez becomes a top center option tonight. The Pistons have been hot but still give up big numbers to opposing big men. Lopez, who is now back in the starting lineup, should rack up points, boards and a couple blocks playing about 30 minutes. I’m expecting a 40 DK point night for the Nets 7-footer.
Roy Hibbert ($5900) – Hibbert is coming off of a monster line (19 points – 11 boards – 4 dimes – 5 blocks) against the Celtics last night and tonight finds another gravy matchup this time with the Sixers. Racking up a double-double and a few blocks should be no issue for the Jamaican big fella. At this price point, with his floor of 24 DK points and upside of 40, he’s a great option.
Cheap risk plays: Tiago Splitter ($4200) has played at least 28 minutes over the Spurs last three games and put up right at 25 DK points each game, look for similar tonight. Tyler Zeller ($4200) is in that frustrating Celtics big man group where minutes vary night to night, but he is cheap and has upside if it’s his night to get minutes. Prefer Zeller as a GPP-play. Meyers Leonard ($3000) is a pretty good target tonight, not only because he’s played 20 minutes the past two games and went for 30 and 17 DK points in those, but because he should add minutes to that tonight in garbage time against Orlando. He’s probably my favorite minimum play tonight since even if somehow it’s not a blowout you will get about 20 DK points from a $3k player, but there’s bigger upside if the game does get out of hand.
Cs I’m fading: Andre Drummond (sick, too iffy to pay that much) and Nikola Vucevic (blowout game but still should get around 30)
Cash game positional rankings: (These are in the order that I’ll be using them based on situation + price, NOT who I think will score the most)
PG:
1) Jarrett Jack
2) Trey Burke
3) Kyle Lowry
4) Brandon Knight
5) Michael Carter-Williams
6) Zach LaVine (only if Mo Williams is out)
7) Damian Lillard (blowout concern)
SG:
1) Jimmy Butler
2) Danny Green
3) James Harden
4) Avery Bradley
5) Joe Johnson
6) Giannis Antetokounmpo
7) Jodie Meeks
SF:
1) Evan Turner
2) Khris Middleton
3) Andrew Wiggins
4) Kyle Singler
5) Joe Ingles
PF:
1) Derrick Favors
2) Greg Monroe
3) Brandon Bass
4) Jae Crowder
5) LaMarcus Aldridge (blowout concern)
C:
1) Roy Hibbert
2) Brook Lopez
3) Meyers Leonard
4) Mason Plumlee
5) Rudy Gobert
6) Tiago Splitter
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