Below you’ll find player rankings at each position followed by some commentary. Before we break it down, let me repeat something I said last week. A general word of advice is to not over-extend yourself early in the season. There are a lot of things we don’t know, and you should risk less money when there are unknown variables. The big thing is matchup as we’re largely operating on last year’s data, which we know will turn out to be incorrect to some degree. I’ll still talk about matchups plenty, but it’ll still be a few weeks before we can start to feel really comfortable with that type of data. So for now, continue to play a little bit less than you normally would.

Quarterbacks

1. Drew Brees – $7,800 – New Orleans Saints
2. Tony Romo – $7,100 – Dallas Cowboys
3. Ben Roethlisberger – $7,200 – Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Jameis Winston – $5,600 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick – $5,500 – New York Jets

I am aware that Drew Brees is going to be a popular play this week, but I really don’t care. While we should be wary about matchups this early, we can be fairly sure Tampa is a good matchup for quarterbacks. They ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA last year, and they allowed a rookie quarterback to put up a perfect passer rating last week. There was some talk in the offseason about the Saints trying to be more balanced on offense, but they threw it 48 times last week compared to just 20 runs. They were playing from behind against Arizona and may be leading Tampa most of the way, so game flow may lead to them being more balanced this week. But I don’t have any concern about the Saints being a run-heavy team.

Romo is ranked second simply because I think he makes for a good stack candidate with several of his pass catchers who all look like great values. With Dez Bryant out, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten are all in line to see more volume, and that extra volume isn’t baked into their price. They Cowboys will face the Eagles who rated 18th in pass defense DVOA last year and who ranked 29th in 4for4.com’s  aFPA (schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) last year against wide receivers. Romo is the ninth most-expensive QB of the day, so paired with a receiver or two, that stack can provide plenty of salary relief.

Like Romo, Ben Roethlisberger is ranked here mainly because I like a lot of his receiving options, which you’ll read more about below. It would be hard to argue that the matchup against San Fran is anything more than middling, and Romo is slightly cheaper with what is likely a better matchup. For that reason, Roethlisberger isn’t really your guy if you’re just making one lineup. But if you like to throw multiple lineups out, Roethlisberger could be your QB in one of them.

If you’re looking for a bargain, Ryan Fitzpartick and Jameis Winston are options. The Jets are a touchdown-underdog against the Colts, and the Bucs are double-digit dogs against the Saints, so game flow should be in each quarterback’s favor. They also both have good receivers to throw to, which always makes me feel slightly more comfortable with bad quarterbacks. In terms of matchup, Winston has the better matchup against a Saints team that ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA last year. I won’t go this cheap at QB, but this is who I would go with if I did.

Running Backs

1. Lamar Miller – $5,500 – Miami Dolphins
2. Ameer Abdullah – $4,500 – Detroit Lions
3. Carlos Hyde – $5,100 – San Francisco 49ers
4. Justin Forsett – $6,200 – Baltimore Ravens
5. Danny Woodhead – $4,000 – San Diego Chargers
6. Chris Johnson – $3,800 – Arizona Cardinals

Week 1 did not go overly well for Miller as the Dolphins leaned fairly heavily on the pass throwing the ball 34 times compared to just 18 runs. But this is still a guy who ranked eighth in PPR scoring among running backs last year who is priced outside the top 10 in a good matchup against the Jaguars. He may not finish as a top three back this week or anything, but he doesn’t need to do so to be a value.

Ameer Abdullah only touched the ball 11 times last week, but he averaged 8.55 yards per touch and four of those touches were receptions, so he did quite well in DraftKings scoring along with a score. Joique Bell had eight touches, so that backfield looks like it will be split, and Bell could work his way into a bigger share as he gets healthier. But Bell shouldn’t be $100 more than Abdullah, and Abdullah shouldn’t be cheaper than 27 running backs. He’s got a good matchup against a Minnesota team that ranked 25th in run defense DVOA last year and ranked 26th in DVOA against running backs as receivers.

Speaking of guys who shouldn’t be cheaper than many of the backs in front of them, why are guys like Jonathan Stewart, Doug Martin, Latavius Murray and Joseph Randle more expensive than Carlos Hyde? Hyde took advantage of the aforementioned good Vikings matchup last week with 182 yards on 28 touches along with two touchdowns. He’s got another good matchup this week against a Pittsburgh team that ranked 22nd in run defense DVOA and 31st in aFPA against running backs in PPR leagues last year. Hyde should be one of the 15 most expensive backs of the week, but he’s not.

Forsett struggled in Week 1 a bit like Miller, but Forsett got a little more wore with 18 touches. The problem for Forsett was more that he was ineffective with the ball averaging just 3.1 yards per touch. But he had a tough matchup against a Denver defense that finished 2014 as a top five defense in overall, run and pass DVOA. This week the matchup is softer against Oakland who was middle-of-the-road against running backs last year.

If you’re looking for a bargain, Danny Woodhead and Chris Johnson are good, if somewhat obvious, options. Woodhead should be popular after scoring twice last week, but it’s a little tough to fade him given his matchup. He’ll face the Bengals who ranked 30th in aFPA against running backs in PPR leagues last year and 29th in DVOA against running backs as receivers. As for Johnson, he should see his workload increase with Andre Ellington out, and the matchup is good this week against Chicago. I’d much prefer Woodhead in that price range, but Johnson should see good volume for his price.

Wide Receivers

1. Antonio Brown – $8,800 – Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Terrance Williams – $4,200 – Dallas Cowboys
3. Brandin Cooks – $7,000 – New Orleans Saints
4. Allen Robinson – $4,900 – Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Jarvis Landry – $5,900 – Miami Dolphins
6. Cole Beasley – $3,300 – Dallas Cowboys
7. Markus Wheaton – $3,800 – Pittsburgh Steelers

I mentiond up top that I like Romo and Roethlisberger primarily because I am a fan of several of their pass catchers, and you see two Dallas and two Pittsburgh receivers here. As mentioned, the Dallas guys should see a bump in volume with Dez Bryant out, but they’re obviously still priced as if they’re second and third receivers on their team. As for the Steelers, they’ll face the 49ers who ranked 28th in aFPA against receivers in PPR leagues last year. I’m not a big Wheaton fan, so I probably won’t use him, but I have to recognize his value potential. As for Brown, that’s where I’m spending my money today.

Speaking of stacks, Brandin Cooks is here as your option to stack with Brees. I’ll be honest, Cooks is priced about right in my estimation, and I prefer to roster guys who have more value potential. But when combined with Brees who has value potential, that stack collectively is underpriced, so I’m good with using Cooks. Tampa Bay ranked 27th in aFPA against receivers in PPR leagues last year, so the matchup is certainly good for Cooks. If you really want value out of a New Orleans stack, Brandon Coleman has upside and is very cheap at $3,300. Had I ranked another couple of receivers, Coleman would have been one of those extra receivers.

And finally we’ve got two receivers from the Miami at Jacksonville game. Allen Robinson has the better matchup against Miami who ranked 24th in aFPA against receivers in PPR leagues last year. Robinson also has the potential advantage of game flow as Miami is unsurprisingly a favorite in this matchup. As for Landry, he’s working on a 10-game stretch with at least five catches dating back to last season. He hasn’t scored in his last six games, so he’s not really a high upside option, but those catches set a nice high floor in a PPR format like DraftKings.

Tight Ends

1. Jason Witten – $4,300 – Dallas Cowboys
2. Heath Miller – $3,500 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Hey look, two more guys receiving passes from Romo and Roethlisberger! It’s a little hard to say who has the better matchup. Witten is facing the Eagles who were below average in DVOA against the tight end last year but were top five in aFPA against tight ends in PPR leagues. Miller is facing the Niners who were top ten in DVOA against the tight end but were 20th in aFPA against tight ends in PPR leagues. I think Witten is more likely to see high volume, so that’s who I’d prefer to roster. But if you need the extra $800 you could save going down to Miller, I have no issue with that.

Had I ranked more tight ends I would have ranked Martellus Bennett ($4,500) and Jordan Reed ($3,700). But they’re both $200 more expensive than Witten and Miller, respectively, and I like Witten and Miller more in terms of projection.

Defense/Special Teams

1. Baltimore Ravens – $2,900
2. Arizona Cardinals – $2,800
3. St. Louis Rams – $3,100

I write a DFS defense post for FantasyAlarm.com each week, and I covered each of the three teams ranked above in my post there this week. Here’s what I had to say about each defense.

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens would look even better if Matt McGloin were starting for Oakland on Sunday, given his 4.2 percent career interception rate (league average was 2.5 percent last year). But it’s still a good matchup, even with Derek Carr likely to start, as the Raiders have one of the five lowest team totals in Vegas this week. Plus, the Ravens are a good defense. They ranked eighth in Football Outsider’s DVOA last year. They also rank fifth this year in FO’s DAVE which mixes Week 1 performance and FO’s preseason projections to rank defenses.

Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals have a middling matchup against the Bears according to Vegas, but there’s a fair bit of turnover potential in the matchup. The Bears had the fourth highest turnover rate last year, and Jay Cutler has a 3.5 percent interception rate since moving to Chicago. The Cards finished seventh in DVOA last year, and they rank 13th in DAVE so far.

St. Louis Rams – Basically everything that was said about Baltimore applies to St. Louis. They have a good matchup with the Redskins who have the same team total in Vegas that the Raiders do. But the Rams do have a bit of a leg up matchup-wise as Washington’s quarterback, Kirk Cousins, has a career 4.3 percent interception rate. As for being a good defense, the Rams ranked ninth in DVOA last year and rank fourth so far in DAVE. Again, they’re very similar to Baltimore, but a bit more expensive.