Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

Picking teams from which to stack players is all about matchup and value. One team in action today has a matchup far better than any other team, but they’re short on value. The Montreal Canadiens put pucks toward the opposition’s net at an above average rate, and today they’re facing the Edmonton Oilers who let the opposition put pucks toward the net at an above average rate. More importantly, they let a lot of the shots that end up on net hit the netting. That’s especially true with Ben Scrivens injured and Viktor Fasth likely between the pipes.

But, as mentioned, there may not be enough value with Habs. Without considering matchup, there isn’t a single pair of Montreal forwards whose average per-game production is farther above average than their price tags are today. That said, you do have to consider matchup, but the question is how much weight to give it. The first line pair of David Desharnais and Max Pacioretty has the best per-game production on the team, but at a combined $13,200, they’re just too expensive. The third line pair of Lars Eller and Jiri Sekac comes close to value, but they rarely produce. So if you’re going to have exposure to this matchup, I’d do it with the second line pair of Tomas Plekanec ($5,500, C) and Brendan Gallagher ($5,200, W). But for the first time all year, I might be avoiding what I think is the best matchup of the day altogether.

There are two other games I think might have the chance to be fairly high scoring affairs. The first is Pittsburgh at Ottawa and the other is Anaheim at Carolina. Pittsburgh played last night, which is theoretically good for Sens and bad for Pens, but I really only factor in a team playing for the second night in a row if I need a tiebreaker of sorts. I don’t write off a team altogether just because they played the night before, nor do I give their opponent too much credit. It’s not inconsequential, but it’s not dispositive. And Pittsburgh just grades out too well in my matchup numbers to ignore.

If I’m going to use four or five players from one team together in a single lineup, it’s probably going to be Pens or Sens. From Pittsburgh I love the second line pair of Evgeni Malkin ($8,500, C) and Patric Hornqvist ($5,700, W). I’ll have them in plenty of cash game lineups. But if I go Pittsburgh-heavy in a lineup, I’ll throw in Sidney Crosby ($9,000, C), one of his wingers, and defenseman Kris Letang ($6,200, D). Of the Crosby wingers, I think Chris Kunitz ($5,300, W) is a slightly better value than David Perron ($4,900, W). But Perron plays on the first power play unit along with Malkin, Hornqvist and Letang. Pick one.

From Ottawa, I like first line center Mika Zibanejad ($3,600, C) and his right winger Bobby Ryan ($5,000, W) assuming Ryan is active. He was scratched on Tuesday with cramps. If Ryan can’t go, Zibanejad can be paired with Clarke MacArthur ($4,000, W). All of those guys are cheap enough that you can afford to use Erik Karlsson ($8,100, D) with them as Zibanejad, Ryan, MacArthur and Karlsson all play on the top power play unit. If you want to load up on Sens, you can also use the second line pair of Kyle Turris ($5,000, C) and Mark Stone ($4,000, W). But I’m not super enticed by that pair.

In the Anaheim at Carolina game, I have a hard time finding enough players I like to go with a team-heavy stack. The two Carolina forward pairings I like are Nathan Gerbe ($3,000, W) and Alexander Semin ($3,600, W) as well as Victor Rask ($3,000, C) and Jeff Skinner ($4,600, W). The problem is that neither of those pairs play together on the power play. And with Gerbe/Semin, they’re both wingers, and I prefer to get a center in a stack. I’ll probably just end up with Rask/Skinner in a few cash game lineups. From Anaheim I like the top line pair of Ryan Getzlaf ($7,800, C) and Patrick Maroon ($3,100, W) along with Sami Vatanen ($5,100) who joins Getzlaf/Maroon on the power play.

I don’t see any other games where the numbers are pointing strongly to a high scoring game (although I’m sure there will be a couple I didn’t identify), and I don’t see any other candidates for team-heavy stacks. That said, there are some other mini-stacks I like which are included in the rankings below.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Evgeni Malkin/Patric Hornqvist – Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Anze Kopitar/Marian Gaborik – Los Angeles Kings
3. Sidney Crosby/Chris Kunitz – Pittsburgh Penguins
4. Victor Rask/Jeff Skinner – Carolina Hurricanes
5. Mika Zibanejad/Bobby Ryan (or Clarke MacArthur if Ryan is out) – Ottawa Senators
6. Ryan Getzlaf/Patrick Maroon – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
7. Ryan Strome/Frans Nielsen – New York Islanders
8. Tomas Plekanec/Brendan Gallagher – Montreal Canadiens

Defense

1. Paul Martin – $2,700 – Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Kris Letang – $6,200 – Pittsburgh Penguins
3. Francois Beauchemin – $3,300 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
4. P.K. Subban – $5,800 – Montreal Canadiens
5. Erik Karlsson – $8,100 – Ottawa Senators
6. Sami Vatanen – $5,100 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Dustin Tokarski – $7,000 – Montreal Canadiens
2. Jaroslav Halak – $7,800 – New York Islanders
3. Thomas Greiss* – $7,000 – Pittsburgh Penguins
4. Jonathan Bernier – $7,000 – Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Semyon Varlamov – $8,300 – Colorado Avalanche

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.