Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And then ‘zDIFF’ is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

I pick on Edmonton a lot in this space, and it burned me on Saturday when I recommended going heavy on Islanders against the Oilers. The Oil beat the Isles 5-2 in their first win by three goals since October. It was obviously a rare and unexpected event, so I’m going back to the well against Edmonton today. It’s been a pretty good strategy on most days.

The Red Wings are in Edmonton tonight, and basically everyone on the team grades out as a good value as a result. If you’re just looking for one safe mini-stack for a cash game, the top line pair of Pavel Datsyuk ($5,500, C) and Henrik Zetterberg ($6,100, C) is about as safe as it gets. If you’re looking for a cheaper mini-stack, you can go with the second line pair of Riley Sheahan ($3,200, C) and Tomas Tatar ($5,100, W). And then third line winger Johan Franzen ($4,600, W) grades out as the best value winger of the day. If I use Franzen in a lineup, I’ll likely pair him with fellow third line winger Gustav Nyquist ($5,300, W). And then on defense, Danny DeKeyser ($3,000, D) grades out one of the better defense values of the day.  He plays on the second power play unit with Sheahan, Tatar and Nyquist. If you’re just making one lineup, GPP or cash, Datsyuk/Zetterberg is your best bet. But if you’remaking multiple lineups, I suggest exposure to various lines.

Another popular team to pick on is Buffalo, who faces New Jersey today. But I have a hard time getting into the Devils. Buffalo is bad, but so is New Jersey. I just don’t trust them to take advantage of the matchup. I do love Cory Schneider ($7,400, G), but I’m not going to have much exposure to New Jersey skaters. If you really want to go with Devils, Adam Henrique ($4,600, C) is my favorite play on the team. He can be paired with his center, Scott Gomez ($3,000, C).

The biggest mismatch of the day according to Corsi is New Jersey and Buffalo, but that’s mainly just because Buffalo is so bad. New Jersey is a below average possession team as well. The second biggest mismatch involves an above average possession team, the Dallas Stars. The Stars will face Columbus who is the third worst possession team in the league per Corsi for percentage. Dallas has been scoring goals like crazy recently with 17 goals in their last three games. I’m not going to load up on Stars because Columbus has decent goaltending, but Erik Cole ($2,900, W) has been on fire and could be paired with Jason Spezza ($4,700, W). If you use that pair, I’d probably throw in John Klingberg ($3,100, D) with them.

If it wasn’t clear, I’m not wild about those New Jersey and Dallas mini-stacks. I just mention them out of obligation given the possession mismatches in those games. But there are several mini-stacks I like quite a bit. Let’s start with the Flyers. Jakub Voracek ($5,900, W) has the third best per-game projection of any winger going today, and he has an above average matchup against Ottawa. The curious thing is his price. He last played on Saturday and his salary was $7,200, but today his price is $5,900. That seems like a crazy drop in price in the span of one game. I can’t think of any justifiable reason for such a price drop. The Philadelphia line combos are a little up in the air with Claude Giroux being day-to-day, but I’m hoping Voracek is centered by Brayden Schenn ($4,300, C). With Voracek’s price being inexplicably low, that’s my favorite mini-stack of the day.

I’ll quickly blow through the other mini-stacks I like in the order in which I would prefer to roster them. For St. Louis, Jori Lehtera ($2,900, C) and Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,100, W). You can also use Jay Bouwmeester ($3,200, D) with that pair. For San Jose, Logan Couture ($6,800, C) and Joe Pavelski ($8,300, C). I also like Brent Burns ($5,400, D) with that pair. And then for Chicago, Jonathan Toews ($5,700, C) and Marian Hossa ($5,700, W).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

Winger

Defense

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.