Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

The Sabres play today and discussion of their opponent is always warranted. But they’re not just facing an average team; they’re facing Tampa Bay, the highest scoring team in the league. Not only that, but today’s version of the Sabres is even worse than the historically bad version we’ve seen up to this point. They shipped out several players at the deadline, perhaps most importantly their goaltender, Michal Neuvirth, who played very well over the last two months.

Of course, everyone and their mom is aware that this is a choice matchup for a high scoring team, so Bolts are sure to have high ownership percentages tonight. In cash games that may not be a huge deterrent. For the sake of value I’d lean towards the second line of Tyler Johnson ($6,500, C) Nikita Kucherov ($4,800, W) and Ondrej Palat ($5,400, W). That’ll run you $16,700 (33.4% of your budget) while the top line will cost you $18,100. It’s not a huge difference, but the second line provides better value. Buffalo is awful across the board, so it’s not as if one line has a better individual matchup.

But the real value is on Tampa’s third line with Valtteri Filppula ($3,900, C), Cedric Paquette ($3,000, C) and Jonathan Drouin ($3,700, W). For those that prefer a mini-stack, Filppula/Paquette is the better pair. There’s a chance that this third line might not have astronomical ownership percentages allowing you to potentially take advantage of the mathcup and be a bit contrarion. For GPPs, I might gamble on the third line delivering. Filppula plays on the top power play unit along with Jason Garrison ($4,500, D), so you could roster both to get exposure to the Stamkos line.

Next up we have both participants in the Islanders at Stars game. It occurred to me that these teams have some similarities despite the fact that the Isles are among the best teams in the East while the Stars were sellers at the deadline. The difference is that the Isles are better at what each team does well and the Stars are worse in the area where both struggle.

Both teams are great offensively as they rank second and third in the league in goals. But the Isles are doing it in a more sustainable way by posting well above average possession numbers. Meanwhile, the Stars are slightly above average from a possession perspective, but a high and potentially unsustainable shooting percentage has pushed their offense to elite levels. The fact that the Isles are a better possession team also helps them cover up their weakness better than the Stars. Both teams have poor goaltending as the Stars are 29th in save percentage and the Isles are 27th. But with the the 5th best Corsi for percentage, the goaltending doesn’t hurt the Islanders quite at much.

The problem with both teams for daily purposes is that their offensive success this season pushes their prices upward. But Jamie Benn ($7,500, W) is reasonably priced today after spending much of last week near $9,000. His center, Jason Spezza ($6,800, C), is a bit pricey, but there are some good value options that would allow you to fit that pair in. The third wheel on that line is Patrick Eaves ($3,800, W). If you’re going to use Spezza/Benn, you might as well offset the cost by throwing in Eaves. And for those of you on FanDuel, Benn/Eaves are an option for a pair of wingers if you like to build a lineup with three mini-stacks. And on the blue line, I like John Klingberg ($4,000, D).

As for the Isles, I’m tempted to go with the second line’s lower cap hit, but I think pairing John Tavares ($9,000, C) with Josh Bailey ($3,900, W) is your best bet. That gives you exposure to Tavares’ upside thanks to Bailey’s reasonable price tag.

The other team that grades out quite well today is Los Angeles in Edmonton. Both top-six lines for the Kings are definitely in play, but the top line pair of Anze Kopitar ($4,900, C) and Marian Gaborik ($4,600, W) may be the best value play for cash games of the day. That said, Jeff Carter ($5,500, C) and Tyler Toffoli ($4,400, W) have cooled down to the point where their prices are worth rostering again. In GPPs, I’m not opposed to using both pairs together. I also have no issue using Trevor Lewis ($2,800, C) along with Kopitar/Gaborik. On the blue line I like newcomer Andrej Sekera ($3,300, D) who plays on the second power play unit with Carter/Toffoli, and I like Jake Muzzin ($4,500, D) who plays on the top unit with Kopitar/Gaborik.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Anze Kopitar/Marian Gaborik – Los Angeles Kings
2. Valtteri Filppula/Cedric Paquette – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Nicklas Backstrom/Alex Ovechkin – Washington Capitals
4. Jeff Carter/Tyler Toffoli – Los Angeles Kings
5. Nick Bonino/Radim Vrbata – Vancouver Canucks
6. Tyler Johnson/Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
7. John Tavares/Josh Bailey – New York Islanders

Defense

1. John Klingberg – $4,000 – Dallas Stars
2. Andrej Sekera – $3,300 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Jake Muzzin – $4,500 – Los Angeles Kings
4. Aaron Ekblad – $3,900 – Florida Panthers
5. Brent Burns – $6,600 – San Jose Sharks
6. Victor Hedman – $5,600 – Tampa Bay Lightning

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Early Slate

1. Frederik Andersen – $7,500 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
2. Roberto Luongo – $7,600 – Florida Panthers
3. John Gibson* – $9,000 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
4. Jonathan Bernier – $7,800 – Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Ben Bishop – $8,500 – Tampa Bay Lightning

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.