This is one of those times when headlines really don’t tell the real story. Most of the players profiled in this chapter really aren’t rotters. They are more like teasers. The overwhelming amount of potential that is displayed here would lead many to think that at least some of these players will realize it. I suppose a blind pig finds a turnip every now and then, but betting on unrealized potential is alot like spinning the roulette wheel in Vegas. Without some prior knowledge of how to play the game you’ll end up giving up your life’s savings to the house.

People often buy books and how they can beat the system in the casino. The very best know the number rule in Vegas and in baseball: the house always wins. So, when you are ahead of the house temporarily (because it is always temporary) you cash in your chips and walk away. Most of these guys have yielded big returns in the short term, but over the long term they are just like the house. They steal your money and your girlfriend.

Jacoby Ellsbury— Boston Red Sox

• 2012: -2.6
• 2011: +47.0
• 2010: -5.9
• 2009: +9.5
• 2008: 0.0

Make no mistake, Jacoby Ellsbury will be selected in either the first or second round of your draft. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a gamble that could pay out. There are a number of factors that work in your favor. He’s presumably healthy and this is a walk year. Yet, applying the walk year principle is akin to sticking pins in a doll. Sure, my back my hurt while you’re sticking a pin in a doll that looks like me, but are we really to believe that the pin caused my back pain? Similarly, the idea that players play better because its a walk year is dubious at best.

If you want to base your fantasy draft on witchcraft then be my guest. I choose cold hard facts and the cold hard facts is that Ellsbury has been ordinary in four out of the last five seasons. So, we can say he has a 20 percent chance of being a stud. If I’m picking in the first two rounds I want those odds inverted. I suspect Ellsbury will be better than last year simply because he will play, but expected a 30/30 season again is a bit too much to ask. Grade: Rotter

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Cameron Maybin— San Diego Padres

• 2012: -0.7
• 2011: +10.8
• 2010: -5.8
• 2009: -1.3
• 2008: +6.1

Cameron Maybin is not so much a voodoo doll like Ellsbury but more like the tempermental teenage girl you wanted to take to the prom. She had fine legs, a fabulous body, beautiful eyes and hair, but her personality was just way too volatile. Do you wait on her to figure things out or do you take someone that may not have the physical characteristics, but you are more certain that you’ll have a good time?

Maybin is the baseball equivalent. He has speed to burn and surprising power to go with that speed, but he has just been unable to put it all together. There are spurts that tantalize you. He did in the second half of the 2008 season and the second half of the 2011 season, but he has yet to put a full season together. The Padres are gambling on it and have paid him a reasonable sum over the next several years. If he ever figures it out they will look like geniuses and so will you if you draft him. Unlike Ellsbury, this gamble is not completely unreasonable. He usually is healthy and so he will give you some return (stolen bases). Grade: Sleeper

Colby Rasmus— Toronto Blue Jays

• 2012: -11.0
• 2011: -6.0
• 2010: +26.1
• 2009: -4.2

He’s worn out his welcome with random precision, rode on the steel breeze. Unfortunately for Rasmus, he won’t be able to ride on that steel breeze much longer. David Gilmour (oops, Anthony Gose) is waiting in the wings. Like most people, I thought Rasmus was going to be one of the best center fielders on the board following 2010, but we are getting further and further away from that moment in time. Gose is more than capable of filling his shoes now and into the future.

Hanging on in quiet desperation won’t cut it for Rasmus. He’s going to have to actually produce, so there is some hope that the urgency of the moment will light a fire under him. Rasmus is capable of producing 20/20 even in the mode that he has been in. So it isn’t as if he has zero value, but he is striking out way too much to be an effective big leaguer. I’d be more worried about him being replaced than about the bad numbers. Grade: Rotter

Chris Young— Oakland Athletics

• 2012: +0.3
• 2011: +8.2
• 2010: +14.7
• 2009: -8.9
• 2008: -5.3

I personally picked Young as my breakout candidate last year. Even with numbers on your side, this is an inexact science. Of course, in my defense it seemed like he would bust out before an injury seemed to zap his momentum. These things happen. Now, he’s lost his changed teams, changed leagues, and seemingly lost his starting job. So much for the breakout.

It’s funny, but part-time play might actually be the magic elexir that he needs to succeed in terms of TRI. Naturally, that means nothing to you or me unless some Yahoo league somewhere is stalking my every move. The end result is someone that could produce in limited duty. We usually don’t draft those guys, but he might be a good waiver claim down the road if the Athletics suffer an injury or two in the outfield. Grade: Sleeper

Drew Stubbs— Cleveland Indians

• 2012: -17.9
• 2011: -1.7
• 2010: +13.9
• 2009: +0.9

There are those that produce and those that accumulate. Fortunately for the Reds, they were able to tell the difference. Walt Jocketty traded Stubbs away in the deal that brought back Shin-Soo Choo. I suppose both teams got what they wanted. The Indians got Trevor Bauer (a talented young pitcher) and Stubbs in exchange for one season of Choo. The Reds get Choo’s considerable production and jettison out a negative impact performer. They are in position to possibly challenge for the pennant.

Stubbs can keep coming to the ballpark and be paid to do it. He’s even being penciled in right field with Nick Swisher switching to first base. If Stubbs continues to suck they can always switch Swisher back and put Mark Reynolds at first base. All indications are that Stubbs shouldn’t be as bad as he was last season, but probably will be somewhere around the league average. You can do better at your corner outfield slots, but as a bench player he may not be a bad guy to roll the dice on. Grade: Sleeper

Franklin Gutierrez— Seattle Mariners

• 2012: +1.3
• 2011: -18.8
• 2010: -7.1
• 2009: +8.9
• 2008: -8.3

Before Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos, and Mike Trout there was Franklin Gutierrez. Few people had heard of him, but the Fielding Bible couldn’t stop singing his praises. However, a mysterious ailment and a trip to the Mayo Clinic zapped any offensive production he could muster and he became a broken down never was. The solid production he had in 2009 was a distant memory and pseudo prospects like Michael Saunders and Casper Wells had taken his spot.

Fast-forward to 2013 and we see that Gutierrez gives the Mariners their best chance to have a good outfield. They have spare parts like Saunders and Wells to go along with veterans Michael Morse and Jason Bay, but they need Guitierrez to be healthy and reasonably productive to make everything go. Last year he showed signs of life, so he might just be that guy again. That guy shouldn’t be a fantasy starter for you, but his career splits give you some usefulness against lefties. Wait until waivers and he should be around. Grade: Sleeper 

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