We finally reach the end of the series on rotters and sleepers. Right field might be the last position on the diamond, but there are some heavy hitters that reached the rotter and sleeper category. Of course, I am looking mainly at performance and not necessarily where these players are picked. One of the luxuries that total run index has afforded me is the ability to free myself from the average draft placement. So, some of these players won’t necessarily be rotters or sleepers, but will be a part of an advanced warning system to avoid the wreckage of your fantasy team.

Like with the center fielders before this, there are some guys that people will take very early in the draft in the expectation that they will produce elite numbers. TRI allows us to be grounded to expect what should be expected and not to expect the unexpected. There certainly are gambles that should be made, but someone that makes too many gambles usually ends up getting burned.

Justin Upton— Atlanta Braves

• 2012: +9.7
• 2011: +36.5
• 2010: +9.1
• 2009: +22.4
• 2008: +3.8

In statistical circles, this is what I would call an “M” shaped curve. Of course this reminds me of the joke about the blonde that threw out all the M&Ms because she thought they were Ws. One man’s M is another man’s W depending on when you enter the data. 2013 would seem to be an up year for Upton except that kind of pattern is rather unusual outside of the Mars factory.

I profiled Upton for bigleaguesmag.com earlier and many of the so-called secondary numbers favored a return to prominence for Upton. The amateur psychologists among us would point to being united with his brother as a reason to vote for an upswing in performance. As someone that has an advanced degree in that area, I don’t want to pooh pooh the usefulness of the psychological arts, but I’m not sure of its applicability to performance in this realm. I’m sure he will be a lot happier and the actual evidence is pointed in the right direction. Grade: Sleeper

[am4show have=’p4;p7;p3;’ guest_error=’Front Office’ user_error=’Front Office’ ]

Hunter Pence— San Francisco Giants

• 2012: +6.8
• 2011: +35.6
• 2010: +14.4
• 2009: +10.1
• 2008: +1.7

Pence is the ultimate accumulator. You look up in the middle of the season and he is on a pace to hit 25 home runs and drive in 100 runs. The problem is that the quality of the performance never matches those particular numbers. So, you are dealing with a pedestrian average and on base percentage. Two different organizations figured out that Pence was not a franchise player. Outside of 2011 he never has been one. He’ll hustle his heart out, say all the right things, and might even show some decent leadership qualities.

Sometimes you can look like a duck and quack like a duck without actually being a duck. It’s rare indeed, but if you can pull off that trick you can get yourself paid long enough to make a nice living for yourself. Pence may get a long-term contract with this shell game, but it might not be from the Giants. They might become wise to this trick just like the Phillies and Astros before them. Grade: Rotter

Nelson Cruz— Texas Rangers

• 2012: +4.0
• 2011: +8.8
• 2010: +29.4
• 2009: +11.9
• 2008: +11.2

Let’s ignore the obvious for the time being. We can analyze why numbers are going the direction they are until we are blue in the face. Sometimes it is simply how age effects players differently. Sometimes it might the infection known as the injury bug. In this case, it could be the all too familiar story of someone cycling off of performance enhancing drugs. Cruz was part of the recent group connected to the labs in Florida. Whether those rumors or true or not are really immaterial.

Nelson Cruz is on a collision course with average. It happens to the best of us. We claw and scratch to get to (or near) the top of our profession only to lose ground to the younger members of the herd. I don’t know when that happens as each of us different, but it will happen to all of us and it appears to be happening to Cruz. As such, I wouldn’t treat him any different than anyone else that is on a collision course with mediocrity. Grade: Rotter

Shane Victorino— Boston Red Sox

• 2012: +3.0
• 2011: +30.2
• 2010: +9.0
• 2009: +15.3
• 2008: +17.7

The world is much too negative for my tastes. All of us struggle to keep from getting sucked into the negativity. By the middle of April, Victorino will be eligible at all three outfield positions in most leagues. There is something to be said for that as only a precious few can claim that. Most Americans will remember him as one of the last outs in the game against Puerto Rico in the WBC. It wasn’t a pretty site and his 2012 season wasn’t a pretty sight.

However, let’s keep in mind that he was traded and had to change positions. That can’t be easy and the numbers reflect that much. Still, Victorino’s best days are behind him. The Red Sox signed him to a three year contract and they may end up regretting that third season. Victorino has had a nice career and he does the little things well. Given all that, if you can wait long enough to make him a bench guy you will probably be glad you did. The versatility alone will be worth it. Grade: Rotter

Matt Joyce– Tampa Bay Rays

• 2012: +10.5
• 2011: +22.5
• 2010: +7.8
• 2009: -0.1
• 2008: +7.0

Joyce fits the standard definition of sleeper. He is someone that is rarely picked very high and quite frankly is picked behind players he is more productive than. The big issue for him has been getting consistent playing time in Tampa Bay. Joe Maddon uses the platoon advantage more often than just about any manager and the onslaught that will be Wil Myers will not help Joyce much.

All that being said, eventually Maddon will tire of Luke Scott‘s act and simply insert Joyce into either left field or designated hitter on a daily basis when Myers arrives. If Ben Zobrist continues to revolve around the diamond then he could already apply that strategy at the beginning of the season. It would be great to see what Joyce could do with 500 plate appearances. Grade: Sleeper

Jeff Francouer– Kansas City Royals

• 2012: -20.1
• 2011: +13.5
• 2010: -8.4
• 2009: -8.7
• 2008: -24.2

Snark was invented for guys like Francouer and teams like the Royals. Fewer and fewer teams are askewing advanced statistics so it becomes harder and harder on us to poke fun. I’ll try and keep it above board. The Royals dealt Wil Myers in attempt to advance their station to the status of contender. Let’s consider that notion for the time being and assume that Myers might achive +10 runs overall between hitting and defense. Given his prospect status, that might be an understatement.

If we count defense, he would be a minimum of four wins better than Francouer on his own merits. That doesn’t take into account what some of the other prospects may have done had they been allowed to run their course. How many extra wins will James Shields and Wade Davis give them? It may be more than four wins, but I can’t expect that it would be much more. So, if we consider only 2013 then that trade will be a fail. That doesn’t even account for the future benefit of having a star under team control. Plus, Jeff Francouer could have been someone else’s problem. Grade: Rotter

[/am4show]