His 2010 BABIP was 35 points lower than his career total, and his HR/FB rate was down 3% from his career average.  So, Tex’s batting average should rebound to at least north of .280 (if not higher), and his homers should top the 35 mark once again.  Moreover, more hits means more chances to drive in runs and more chances to be driven in.  All that said to point out that the 2011 version of Teixeira is more likely to be closer to the 2008/2009 Tex than the 2010 Tex.  That means .280+, with 35 HR, 100+ R, and 115+ RBI is a pretty safe expectation for the Yankee.

There is no question that moving away from Petco Park and a pathetic Padres lineup will be good for Adrian Gonzalez, but will it be enough for Gonzo to put out Teixeira-like production?  The last four seasons Gonzalez has averaged 34 HR, 95 R, 105 RBI and he topped a .285 batting average only once.  The new lineup could certainly help Gonzalez catch Teixeira in the counting categories (R and RBI) and Fenway could make 40 homers approachable, but last year’s .298 average was likely an aberration.  One more nit-picky thing to note with Gonzalez is that his walk rate (and OBP) will likely decrease with Gonzalez no longer being the only viable major league hitter in his lineup.  As a result, his runs total might not jump as much as you might think.

Ultimately, both guys are no doubt top 20 hitters, and you really cannot go wrong with either one of them.  In fact, I would not be surprised Tex and Gonzo were almost identical players in 2011.  If push came to shove, I would just rather have the guy who I can be more certain about what I am going to get out of him.  Maybe next year Gonzalez will be the pick after we see exactly how his new surroundings are going to affect his numbers.