2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Preview: Lester, Beckett & the Boston Red Sox

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· January 31, 2011

The Red Sox have one of the most solid rotations in baseball, both in terms of on-field quality and stability. They have six major league-ready starters and barring injury, not many of their prospects will see a start.

Jon Lester is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. I’ve loved him since 2008, when I stupidly refused to trade Shawn Marcum for him, and made sure I drafted him in 2009 and 2010.

I mean, what’s not to like?

He’s improved every year, he strikes out a ton of hitters (more than a strikeout per inning in both 2009 and 2010), he wins (16, 15, and 19 wins over the past three years, he doesn’t get hurt (33, 32, and 32 starts the past three years), and he keeps his ERA and WHIP manageable and his BAA even better.

He’s one of the first pitchers I’m taking this year – right in the same class as Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, etc.

John Lackey used to be one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. I owned him for what felt like ten straight years, including last year.

But I can’t help but wonder if his best days are behind him.

Yes, he pitching for the Red Sox probably means five extra wins per year, but considering he only won 14 last year, those wins are not enough to offset the fact that his ERA, WHIP, BAA and K/IP have all worsened since 2008.

For a guy with a history of arm troubles and an age on the wrong side of 30 by a couple years, I say Buyer Beware.

Josh Beckett, it would appear, is in line for an excellent season. Why, you ask? Well, 2005 – great. 2006 – lots of wins but with an ERA over five. 2007 – 20 wins and a near Cy Young. 2008 – mediocre wins and WHIP. 2009 – another near Cy Young. 2010 – both bad and hurt, depending on the month. 2011, it follows, becomes good.

But wait. He’s now 30, has thrown 1500 innings over nine full seasons, is coming off an injury, and doesn’t have a big contract to shoot for (he got it last year).

But a closer look would indicate that 2010 was the only year of that cycle that was a real true aberration. His K/IP and WHIP were relatively consistent, and he generally bounces back well. Do you think Beckett likes being a no. 3 starter? I don’t.

Bid carefully, but he could be a real hidden gem this season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka. I have a friend who is a huge Red Sox fan, and has trumpeted his mediocrity ever since he came to the big leagues in 2007. The luckiest 18 game winner of all-time, he said. Never had a WHIP below 1.30, generally lives well north of 4.00 in the ERA department, and the K’s don’t make up for it. I agree. Dice-K not worth the premium you’ll pay for the name and his excellent 2008, so let some other sucker overpay for him.

Clay Buchholz surprised me a lot last year, considering that the late-summer regression I expected never came. He finished the year with 17 wins with an excellent ERA and WHIP.

But, two significant indicators of success – BAA and K/IP – were very low. Only 120 K’s in 173 innings, and an abnormally low BAA of .226. So I do expect that regression to come this season, meaning that I am happy to let someone else pick him way too early and I’ll grab Beckett later on.

After those five, you have the ageless Tim Wakefield, who is so old that he pitched for the Pirates the last time they had a winning season, and Felix Doubront, who was passable during his cup of coffee in 2010. Neither of those last two are worth targeting at the draft, but the Red Sox offense is so good and their bullpen could be the best in baseball (Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Bowden, Okajima), that anyone who starts for them is worth owning in an AL-only league.

Written by Jesse Mendelson exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Be sure to check back every Wednesday for Jesse’s waiver wire column (and considering he used the waiver wire to sweep all three of his leagues last year, you might want to pay attention). Find and follow Jesse on Facebook.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Preview: Lester, Beckett & the Boston Red Sox