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The Daily Fix: Fantasy Baseball Rundown & The Royals Call-Up Eric Hosmer

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Fantasy baseball is all speculation. Well, maybe not all, but it’s a game of who is better at projections. And no matter how much time you spend evaluating the numbers (both traditional and peripheral), there is a fair amount of speculation involved with any projection.  

For whatever reason, people tend to over-project when it comes to prospects that get called up.  But with prospects we have far less information, so any prospect projection is inherently more speculative. Sure, every once in awhile a Mike Stanton comes along and lives up to the hype by hitting 22 homers in his first 359 major league at-bats, but more often call-ups go the way of Jerry Sands (hitting .188 since his call-up) or Brandon Belt (hit .192 in 52 AB before being sent back to AAA) in their first stint in the majors.

I say all that to say this: ease up on the Eric Hosmer love-fest. Hosmer was called up by the Royals yesterday, and the fantasy baseball corner of Twitter exploded with hype and optimism.  As you can tell, I am taking the more pragmatic approach.

Here are the facts:

· Hosmer homered just 29 times in over 1,200 minor league plate appearances

· Hosmer stole just 20 bags in over 1,200 minor league plate appearances

· Hosmer plays for the Royals

Buster Olney tweeted that “evaluators” say Hosmer has “prodigious power potential.” The key word there would be potential. If you ask me, nothing about his minor league numbers indicates anything prodigious about Hosmer’s power. There may come a time when Hosmer develops into a 30+ homer guy, but it is not going to happen in his first big league stint.  

Hosmer is also not going to be a big steals contributor. He might grab you a few steals, but nothing significant. Plus, Hosmer will hit in a below average line up. Billy Butler hit .318 with a .388 OBP last year, but that putrid lineup around him only helped him post 77 runs and 78 RBI.  There is no reason to think Hosmer is going to post anything but, at best, average numbers in those two categories.

So we’re left with a guy whose only above average contribution to a roto category is going to be batting average. Hosmer has been good at avoiding strikeouts in the minors, so it is reasonable to think he could hit .290+ in the big leagues. But .290 without much power or speed is not all that valuable, especially at first base.

Hosmer is a play in shallow leagues only if you have deep benches that allow you to carry a guy who never cracks your lineup. For deeper mixed leagues and AL-only leagues feel free to add Hosmer, but don’t set your expectations too high.

Wow, I was asked to do the Daily Fix and mention Hosmer’s call-up, but I got carried away and just went on a full-fledged anti-Hosmer rant. For the sake of using bullet points twice in one article for the first time, I’m going to quickly list a few other thoughts from a perusal of last night’s box scores.

· Jason Bourgeois stole two more bags and is now tied for the league lead in that category with Will Venable and teammate Michael Bourn. He may struggle to get regular playing time when Carlos Lee returns to the lineup, but if you need speed in a deeper league, Bourgeois might be able to help.

· Speaking of the Astros, Brandon Lyon has been placed on the DL. If you are searching for saves, Mark Melanconprobably gets the first shot at the 9th inning. But if you are really prospecting, Wilton Lopez might get a shot at some point as well.

· News flash: David Price is good. He turned in his best start of the year with this line: 8.2 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K, W.

· Erick Aybar also had him a day. 4-6 with two runs, a ribbee, and two steals. He’s now hitting .342 and is 7 for 7 in steal attempts on the year.

· Right after returning from the DL (and taking away playing time from Carlos Gomez), NyjerMorgan broke his thumb while bunting and gave back the PT to Gomez.

· Brandon Beachy: 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K. His ERA is now under 3.00 and his K/9 is over 9.00. There is certainly room for regression with a BABIP under .240, and a fly ball rate over 50% isn’t ideal, but the ability to miss bats like that has value. His ownership percentage should be higher than 61.2% (ESPN).

· Speaking of guys who should be owned in more leagues, I give you Jason Hammel.  Yesterday Hammel went seven innings, allowed no runs, gave up four hits, walked three, and struck out four. His ERA is now down to 3.23, but his ownership percentage is only 13.1%. That should (and will) change. Make sure you are the guy in your league that adds him if you need pitching help. 

· Brandon League notched his ninth save of the season while not allowing a base runner and striking out two. Not sureDavid Aardsma gets that job back if and when he comes off the DL.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is about to be an intern not in Dallas. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter  @therealTAL

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(February 26, 2011 – Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images North America)


Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball News, Roto News, The Daily Fix, Brett Talley, Eric Hosmer
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