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Week 15 Fantasy Football, "Peckin' Order": With Murray & Jennings Out, Look To Waiver Wire

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Highlight: With one playoff week in the books, your fight isn’t over just yet, and you will need to make the right moves to complete your task at hand. 

One playoff week is now in the books. Another week filled with major injuries to top-flight players like DeMarco Murray (DAL, 22) and Greg Jennings (GB, 8). This may have cost you your chance at winning it all, but if you were one of the lucky ones to survive the first week of the playoffs then congrats, but the job isn’t over just yet.  

I got lucky this week, in my big money league which is a 16-team league we play two week per round playoffs. My team that went 10 – 3 in the regular season and had the most points scored, decided it would be fun to underperform this week allowing my opponent to win week one by 3 points. But because I have another week to regain those three points, I am looking to the waiver wire to help me win my league, and so should you. 

Rise: 

As mentioned above, DeMarco Murray went down early in the first quarter with a terribly fractured ankle that will cost him his season. In steps Felix Jones (DAL, 48) who started the year as the starting running back for America’s Team, but due to injury and lack luster play lost his spot mid way through. Felix has always had talent, always capable of the big play but never really showed it. In week 14, once given an opportunity to carry the ball he truly showed why he was the guy in the waiting all these years.  After entering the game in the first quarter, Felix went on to collect 16 carries breaking the 100-yard mark for the first time since week 3. He wasn’t able to reach the end zone, because Tony Romo (DAL, 7) was flinging the ball all over the place, but he did collect 6 catches for 31 yards and in a PPR that gives him 19 fantasy points which should be enough to help you win your games. Going forward Jones will be facing the Bucs, Eagles and Giants to finish off the season, a trio of teams averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Felix can get in the end zone he will be a great play the rest of the way. 

Jake Locker (TEN, 40) has had two true opportunities behind center so far this season, and in both he has shined to amazing numbers. In week 11, Locker threw for 140 yards and two passing touchdowns in limited time after Matt Hasselbeck (TEN, 21) went down with an arm injury. This past week, Locker shined again throwing for nearly 300 yards, throwing for one score, and rushing for 36 yards and another score on the ground. Hasselbeck went down with a calf injury and there is a major speculation as to whether he will be good to go or not in week 15. If that’s the case, get Locker off waivers, and play him right away. Lockers remaining schedule isn’t the best, as the Titans face the 9th toughest schedule for fantasy QBs the rest of the way. But, his week 15 game is against the Colts, a team giving up more than 18 points per game to opposing QBs a number that seems to fit with Lockers ability. The Colts, can’t stop the run, and barely stop the pass, with Lockers double threat of his arm and his legs he should be a monster on game day. 

Speaking of rookie quarterbacks playing in the AFC South, when did Blaine Gabbert (JAC, 29) become an NFL style QB? Blaine, has thrown for more than 200 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, a feat he only accomplished once in his previous 9. And in the last two games he has thrown two touchdowns each, something he hadn’t done all season long. Going forward Gabbert has a pretty decent schedule for QBs, with games against Atlanta, Tennessee, and Indianapolis three teams all giving up more than 16.5 points per game to QBs. I am not saying that Gabbert is a must start, but if you are playing in a pretty deep league, or keeper, you might want to stash him away for next season. He is showing a lot of improvement and could be a top notch QB in 2012. 

Dwayne Bowe (KC, 19) can’t find the end zone, and with good reason. The quarterback situation in Kansas City isn’t the greatest to look at. There have been three different starting quarterbacks under center this season and none of them have really been able to get Bowe to the promise land. However, in PPR leagues Bowe has been pretty solid. In 4 of Bowe’s last 6 games he has reeled in at least 6 catches for more than 65 yards good for at least 12 fantasy points in each of those 4. With a remaining schedule that ranks 2nd easiest for fantasy WRs, including games against Green Bay, Oakland, and Denver a group giving up more than 23 points per game against opposing WRs, look for Bowe to continue on his PPR pace, and if he can get into the end zone more frequently he could be an extremely solid WR 1 the rest of the way. 

Fall: 

DeSean Jackson (PHI, 30) has been an absolute head case all season long. And if you were one of the fantasy owners to waste one of your first 5 draft picks on him you are probably cursing him out. Jackson has been either clearly distracted with the contract negotiations or lack thereof, or he is so disgruntled that he just doesn’t care. Either way, it isn’t helping the Eagles, and I am sure it isn’t helping you fantasy teams. Jackson finally found the end zone in week 14, his first since week 5 but was only capable of reeling in 4 catches for 59 yards, good for only 11 fantasy points. While some may take that as good news as it is also his first double-digit fantasy production since week 5, his remaining schedule is absolutely brutal for WRs. With the 2nd toughest schedule for fantasy wide outs, Jackson will face Revis Island in week 15, and then finish up the season against Dallas and Washington, two divisional opponents that usually play the Eagles pretty tough. If you are desperate use Djax as a flex option, but to be honest he should be on most benches collecting splinters at this point. 

The Baltimore Ravens are in position to win the AFC North crown, but it won’t be a cakewalk. With a pretty tough schedule the Ravens will be facing the Chargers who are surging, and pretty good defenses in Cincinnati and Cleveland, division rivals who normally hang tough against the Ravens. This is bad news for Joe Flacco (BAL, 16) and Anquan Boldin (BAL, 26). For fantasy QBs, Flacco is going up against the 7th toughest schedule, and for fantasy WRs, Boldin is going up against the 4th toughest. Boldin hasn’t been himself this year with only three touchdowns on the season and only two games of more than 100 yards, and his PPR totals haven’t been that good either as in his last 5 games he has recorded 4 receptions or less in 4 of them. With the tough matchups he has coming, Boldin drops to a back end WR2, flex option that could hurt your chances of winning it all. Besides the Chargers who are giving up 18 points per game to opposing QBs which will favor Flacco, his week 16 and 17 games will be tough as neither the Bengals or the Browns are giving up more than 15 fantasy points to QBs. 

It truly pains me to say this, as I have Ryan Mathews (SD, 10), in multiple leagues that are still fighting for the championship, but it is time to keep a close eye on the situation in San Diego. With a remaining schedule that ranks as the 10th toughest for fantasy running backs, Mathews and even Mike Tolbert (SD, 22) owners should be worried. It has been known all season long that Tolbert and Mathews would be splitting carries, and for the most part they have done this to great success. Tolbert has recorded 6 rushing touchdowns on the year so far, and in PPR leagues has been a monster recording at least 3 receptions in every game but 4 so far. Mathews on the other hand has produced 8 double-digit fantasy outputs this year scoring 4 times on the ground and catching at least 3 receptions in 9 of his contests so far. Going forward this running back duo faces off with the Ravens, Lions, and Raiders teams who are giving up fewer than 21 points per game to opposing running backs. Because these two are in a heated committee those numbers get split in half, and we wont be able to predict which one will come out on top. 

You can follow me on Twitter @PeckinTheFix

As always I will be available from 10am – 12pm on Sunday answering your start / sit questions on twitter. 

All stats are through week 14 games, and are based off of NON-PPR numbers unless otherwise stated. 

(November 5, 2011 – Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images North America)


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