Fantasy Basketball

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: Week 10 Buy/Sell

Photo credit: Keith Allison
Photo credit: Keith Allison

Welcome to the Week 10 Buy/Sell report, folks, your weekly one-stop shop for fantasy basketball trade musings. Here’s to wishing you a belated Happy New Year and I hope your fantasy squads enjoy immense success this season. If you’re unfamiliar with the column, five players will be examined and will be listed under the buy low or sell high categories based on their current trade value at this moment. Without further ado, let’s get started.

Buy Low

Marcin Gortat (52) – 12.5 PTS-8.2 REB-1.2 AST-0.6 ST-1.5 BLK-52.5% FG-77.6% FT

The man otherwise known as the Polish Hammer has been a consistent force for fantasy owners graced by his presence on their teams so far, but it hasn’t come with much fanfare along the way. A number of players are vastly underrated for fantasy purposes because they may not necessarily supply flashy production, and Gortat is one baller who fits the bill. While his averages in points (-0.7), rebounds (-1.3), assists (-0.5), and field goal percentage (-1.7) are down from his first season with the Wizards, he’s still providing a profit for owners who took the plunge on draft day based on his 60.7 Yahoo ADP compared to his actual rank. It’s also worth noting his averages in steals and blocks are nearly identical to last year while his turnovers are slightly down as well. Also helping the cause is the fact Gortat is shooting 77.6% from the free throw line this season, which would be a career-high in that department. So many bigs struggle at the charity stripe in the NBA today, and it’s a huge boon for owners who can manage solid percentages at the power forward and center positions.

Another factor helping Gortat is the fact fellow starter Nene is currently dealing with an ankle issue. The Wizards will likely be cautious with the oft-injured power forward and whenever he misses any time Gortat will be in line for increased production. Additionally, his usage in 2013 was 18 percent and it’s increased to 19.2% this year, so owners can likely pencil him in for a slight bump in points and rebounds the rest of the way. The 30-year-old is returning early fifth-round value at the moment and his well-rounded game combined with a small uptick in his statistical output could vault him up to a fourth-round value and beyond. Gortat is only averaging 10.1 points and 6.9 rebounds over his last 10 games and right now makes for a nice buy-low window for the talented native of Poland.

Trevor Ariza (56) – 13.5 PTS-6.1 REB-2.0 AST-2.5 3PM-1.7 ST-36.1% FG-82.7% FT

Let’s start off with the bad news. Ariza is shooting a miserable 36.1% from the field this year and it happens to be the worst mark in the NBA among the 120 players with enough shots to qualify for the dubious distinction. Although he’s never really excelled in this area of his game as evidenced by his career mark of 42.9% from the field, his previous career-low of 39.4% came back with the Rockets in 2009-10. Coincidence or not, it would be shocking if Ariza didn’t improve closer to 40 percent over the rest of the season as he has simply been mired in a horrendous shooting slump. In fact, Ariza hasn’t hit over half his shots in a game since Nov. 12 against the Timberwolves. If you were wondering, this means he has gone 23 consecutive games without making at least half of his shots. That’s an absolutely mind-boggling statistic for one of the leading three-point shooters in the NBA. Check out his shot chart from this year compared to last season.

Ariza 2013 Shotchart
Ariza 2013 Shotchart
Ariza 2014 Shotchart
Ariza 2014 Shotchart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

His percentages have noticeably dropped off across the board and owners should take solace in the fact he’s still providing fifth-round value as he works his way out of a shooting slump for the ages as his shooting is bound to improve as the season progresses. Enough with the bad, let’s get to the good news now.

His 2.5 3PM is tied for the 7th-best mark in the league while his 7.8 three-point attempts per game tops the charts. Owners would likely welcome the 29-year-old UCLA product to take a few less treys and drive to the bucket more to help his sputtering field goal percentage, but there hasn’t been too much else to complain about considering he’s still outperforming his 62.2 ADP. His 82.7% mark from the charity stripe would be a career-high while his 1.7 steals per game represents the 9th-best figure in the NBA. The versatile shooting forward obviously has the green light to shoot from distance and his role on the court is to space the floor for James Harden drives and Dwight Howard kickouts out of the post, and he’s undoubtedly seeing a lot of open looks as defenses have to focus first and foremost on the aforementioned duo on defense.

Victor Oladipo (122) – 14.5 PTS-3.8 REB-3.8 AST-1.0 3PM-1.5 ST-45.3% FG-75.8% FT

While the 22-year-old second-year pro out of Indiana still struggles for consistency at times as he’s alternated between playing point guard and shooting guard for the Magic this season, his playing time is certainly not an issue and that’s extremely encouraging for his future fantasy value. Over his last 11 games, Oladipo has received at least 32 minutes of action in each game and his chances of producing solid fantasy lines on a game-to-game basis increase exponentially with this ample amount of time on the court. After a recent four-game mini-slump where he failed to eclipse 10+ points in three of four games, Oladipo has rebounded quite nicely over his last four games as he’s riding a little hot streak now. During the four-game strech ‘Dipo is averaging 16.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 3PM, and 2.2 steals on 49 percent shooting. His versatile skillset allows him to contribute across the statsheet and this is what makes him such an interesting fantasy commodity.

Over the last month Oladipo is the 96th-ranked player in 9-cat formats and while owners are expecting him to provide more than 8th-round value, he possesses immense upside due to his stat-stuffing ability. Other encouraging parts of his improving game include his increase in FG% (+3.4) and 3PT% (+7.0) while his output in steals is virtually the same. His lousy field goal percentage held his fantasy value back this year and with that situation under control now all he has to do is do a better job at limiting his turnovers to further enhance his value. His 3.0 turnovers per game is tied for the 16th-worst mark in the NBA and it really limits his upside in 9-cat formats compared to 8-cat. He’s ranked 122 in 9-cat but when you eliminate the turnovers in 8-cat his value comes in at 71. Quite the difference there. Players with the ball in their hands a lot inherently turn the ball over more though so owners just have to hope he can keep his average under 3.0. He’s sporting a solid 23.6% usage rate this year and crafty owners should try to take advantage of his lackluster ranking so far in trade talks to acquire the uber-talented guard with top-60 upside.

Sell High

Darren Collison (45) – 16.4 PTS-3.1 REB-6.0 AST-1.2 3PM-1.6 ST-46.1% FG-79.2% FT

Based on his 103 ADP prior to the season commencing, Collison has been one of the fantasy steals of the year so far so you may be a bit confused as to why he is listed under the sell high headline. Let me explain, but the first order of business is to address his current play. The 27-year-old out of UCLA has been scorching hot during his last eight games on the hardwood. During that time, Collison has averaged 18.5 points, 5.5 assists, 2.0 3PM and 1.6 steals on 55.4% shooting from the field. Very impressive indeed. He is having a career year for the Kings in his sixth NBA season as his current marks in points, three-pointers made, assists, steals, and blocks would all be career-bests. While his current mark at the charity stripe would be a career-low mark, he’s a career 85.2% foul shooter and is a great bet to get his average over 80 percent in the very near future. With all the positives you may still be wondering why I’m advising to sell high. In short, his recent pace is likely unsustainable and it’s a classic case of exploring the trade market to see if you can maximize a players trade value when he’s performing at his peak.

There’s no questioning he benefitted from DeMarcus Cousins missing a dozen games due to illnesses and it will be difficult for him to keep returning fourth-round value due to him being the third option on offense behind Cousins and Rudy Gay. Furthermore, prior to his recent three-point barrage over the last eight games where he’s averaged 2.0 3PM, he was only averaging 0.9 3PM for the year, which happens to be his previous career-high. In other words, it’s unlikely he’s become a sharpshooter from deep in the middle of the season and owners shouldn’t count on him to be a huge contributor in this area. While Collison is looking like a shoo-in for top-60 value barring a significant injury, aiming high while his value is at it’s likely zenith is the advised course of action. If you can cash in on Collison for the likes of Kemba Walker, Ty Lawson, Monta Ellis, Brandon Knight, or Eric Bledsoe, you should definitely consider it.

Brook Lopez (89) – 14.8 PTS-5.7 REB-0.7 AST-0.5 ST-1.5 BLK-49.4% FG-82.3% FT

Starting in place of Kevin Garnett (rest) on Tuesday against the Bulls surprisingly poured in a season-high 29 points on a season-high 21 shots in 33 minutes. Those of you who have played fantasy basketball for a long while know that Lopez isn’t bashful about getting his shots up when he’s on the court. All one must do is look at his ghastly average in assists to see that his production in that area is nowhere to be found. Additionally, his mark in points would be his lowest for a full season since his rookie year in 2008 and his 5.7 rebounds per game would establish a career-low. Lopez has always been a sub-par rebounder based on his height but it’s just inexcusable that he can’t average at least 7-9 rebounds based on his big body. Another glaring issue that always seems to plague Bro-Lo is his propensity for being injured and it’s been no different this season as he’s already missed 10 games this year due to back woes. His next injury is likely just around the corner and it would be wise to sell him while you can at least get someone of value in return.

While his big game the other night was encouraging, Nets coach Lionel Hollins said yesterday Lopez would be heading back to the bench with the return of KG as him and Mason Plumlee continue to man the frontcourt. This is terrible news for his fantasy value if he continues to see less than 15 minutes per game like the last four games he’s played off the pine. He’s already playing a career-low 27 minutes per game and based on his injury risk and lack of production in rebounding/assists, there’s not a lot of room for long-term upside based on the fact Plumlee is considered a major part of the Nets future and the team seems determined to develop him this season. While you may not find the trade market on Lopez to be especially hot considering the aforementioned issues other owners may be aware of, it’s better to sell high while you can before it’s too late to get anyone of real value in return.

Thanks for reading and thanks to NBA.com/stats, Yahoo, and ESPN for providing the statistical information. Comment below with any questions or remarks you have concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’d be more than willing to answer any questions you may have.

Previous post

Wild Card Sunday Preview: Lions at Cowboys

Next post

Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: January 2nd

14 Comments

  1. Mustafa
    January 3, 2015 at 11:48 pm — Reply

    Hey! happy new year! I was wondering if I should go this trade? I give: pau gasol, Greg Monroe, Thaddeus young for gortat, batum and al horford. Im giving pau because im worried that hes playing 35 mpg and due to his injury history, thats not a good combination. I’m trying to give him Brandon jennings instead of monroe but I don’t think he’d accept.
    I play yahoo 8 cat and the only categories I’m even remotely good at (competitive in) are: fg percentage, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, double doubles and triple doubles. I really don’t care about any other category because I pretty much am terrible in everything else.

    This is my team:
    Jennings
    Isaiah Thomas
    cp3
    Monroe
    drummond
    michael carter Williams
    pau gasol
    Rudy Gilbert
    lance Stephenson
    Cole Aldrich (trying to get Dudley for him)
    Thad young
    nerlens Noel
    jrue holiday
    is there anyone on my team you would trade/sell high on based on the categories I’m looking for? I play in a ten team league btw
    Thanks so much!

  2. January 4, 2015 at 10:08 am — Reply

    Mustafa,

    Happy New Year to you as well. Even though you would be giving up the best player in the deal in Pau Gasol (#15), you would be getting back three top-50 players and I would strongly consider making the move. Batum has been on a roll lately and while he’s still only 63rd-ranked player in 8-cat formats, it would be a great time if you could buy-low on him now due to him possessing top-30 upside now that his shot is starting to fall. Additionally, while Gortat comes in at 62 and Horford at 51, they can both easily improve upon their recent play and their rankings should be going up in short order as a result. The other reasons you may want to do the deal is Thaddeus Young has looked like a shell of his former self this year and with Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, and Nikola Pekovic all closing in on returns, it may be even tougher for him to post decent fantasy value. Monroe is decent but his inability to post defensive stats (ST/BLK) really limits his fantasy upside. If you can substitute in Jennings for Monroe I’d definitely prefer to trade him away due to his abysmal FG%, but in either situation I think it’s in your best interests to make the trade.

  3. Mustafa
    January 4, 2015 at 9:34 pm — Reply

    Hey, thanks for the respond! The owner wasn’t sure if he wanted to do the deal so I make two other deals with other teams, I can still veto them as I know the people I traded with so feel free to tell me if it’s not a good deal, or if you approve it please do let me know!
    Remember; I’m pretty much only interested in fg percentage, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, double doubles and triple doubles because those are the only categories my team is pretty good in.

    Trade #1)
    I gave Brandon Jennings for Trevor Ariza (I had too many pgs so this made me happy but I feel like I lost a lot of assists here)
    Trade #2)
    Pau Gasol for Deandre Jordan
    I know this sounds crazy, but Jordan gives me better cats in everything I’m interested in BUT I’m losing even MORE assists here so I’m even more worried. But Pau playing 35 mpg considering his injury concern from the last 2 seasons made me want to sell high on him

    Again, I posted my team up there and I have some guys who can really get assists, but even with them, I was only third in the league in assists, so I’m really scared that I just lost all those assists in those two trades, feel free to tell me to veto them and let me know who I should go for instead! But remember; points, etc dont matter to me because I’m either last or near last in those cats in my league

    Thanks once again!

    • January 5, 2015 at 2:47 pm — Reply

      I’m fine with trading Jennings for Ariza but I wouldn’t trade Gasol for Jordan.

  4. Zack Thomas
    January 5, 2015 at 12:15 pm — Reply

    Hi Matt!

    Thanks so much again for your advice over Christmas break. I was hoping to consult you again.

    Here’s a quick rundown:
    I am playing in a seven category standard league (percentages have been omitted) and have really enjoyed and appreciated all of the advice that you give! I have been in an on-again-off-again debate over the addition of Rudy Gobert. Everything tells me to add the guy, but I just never know who to drop because my team is very balanced. Could you please look at my lineup and let me know if any of these guys should be dropped for Gobert, or if I should just proceed with the team as currently constructed. I am trying to win four of the seven categories (3’s, steals, rebounds, blocks). Thanks!

    Among other possible additions on waivers – Lou Williams, PJ Tucker, Alex Len, Whiteside, CJ Miles, Nurkic, Speights, Wroten, Henson.

    PG
    Chris Paul
    Kyrie Irving

    SG
    Kobe Bryant
    Danny Green

    SF
    Wilson Chandler
    Kyle Korver
    Robert Covington

    PF
    Pau Gasol
    Gorgui Dieng
    Ryan Anderson

    C
    Tyson Chandler
    Roy Hibbert
    Andrew Bogut (injured)

    • January 5, 2015 at 3:37 pm — Reply

      Zack,

      Looks like you have quite the quandary on your hands. After looking at your squad I can understand why you are having trouble deciding who to drop for Gobert. In my opinion, Andrew Bogut is the only guy you can even consider dropping on your team. Bogut was a top-50 value before he went down with his knee injury and while recent rumblings have suggested he’s somewhat close to a return, there still isn’t a concrete timetable for his return to the court and it looks like it could be sometime in mid-January. He will likely have a hard time staying healthy for the duration of the season even after he returns as we know how injury-prone Bogut and his minutes could be reduced in order to keep him fresh/healthy for the playoffs as the Golden State Warriors desperately need him to be playing if they want to have any chance of winning a championship.

      With that being said, I would go ahead and drop Bogut for Gobert. Gobert had 13-11-1 with six blocks (!!) in 31 minutes in his last game against the Timberwolves and he will continue to remain in the starting lineup for as long as Enes Kanter is sidelined with his ankle injury. He’s already been ruled out for todays’ game and a report surfaced today saying Kanter is in a walking boot and his ankle is still very swollen so there’s a chance he misses the three remaining games this week for the Jazz. Gobert has provided top-90 9-cat value in only 19 MPG so far this year and he has a chance to post top-50 value if he continues to see 25-32 minutes a game. He’s been a great asset in FG% (63.4), REB (6.0) and BLK (1.9) while also not turning it over much (1.0) so far in his limited minutes and he has a real shot to block right around 3 shots a game if his minutes hold steady. The defense of the Jazz is way better whenever Gobert is on the floor compared to Kanter and head coach Quin Snyder may not have any other choice but to leave the 22-year-old in the starting lineup as they look ahead to the future as they have no shot of making the playoffs this year. Whenever someone possesses this much upside and is available on the waiver wire you have to pick him up imo. If given roughly the same amount of minutes the only clear advantage Bogut would have is in AST and when you factor in that he’s a headache to own due to his injury issues, the decision becomes much easier.

      Hope this helps, thanks for the question!

      FYI – I would keep a CLOSE eye on Nurkic-Wroten-Henson in case an injury strikes or a few of your players start to underperform. Nurkic may be about to overtake Timofey Mozgov in the starting lineup and has been playing great lately. There are conflicting reports regarding Larry Sanders but word today is that he doesn’t want to play basketball anymore and while Henson will continue to back up Zaza Pachulia, he’s a great asset for BLK. One of the biggest impediments to Wroten’s fantasy value in 9-cat leagues are due to his bad FG%-FT%-TO and with you not having to worry about two of those cats Wroten can be a really nice asset if you’re in need of PTS-AST-3PM-ST.

      • Zack Thomas
        January 6, 2015 at 12:14 am — Reply

        Hey Matt!

        Thank you so much for your in-depth and informative response! I agree with everything that you said. It’s a little difficult dropping Bogut with nothing in return, so I may attempt to package him in a trade with possibly Wilson Chandler. If you absolutely had to drop 3 guys, which ones would you choose? I am wondering whether or not I should keep Hibbert over Bogut. Hibbert just doesn’t seem to rebound or block many shots anymore. He’s putting up numbers similar to a SF lately (about 15ppg, 6-8 rpg). I greatly trust you knowledge so would you advise that I hang onto him? I honestly have two of the biggest headaches at Center lol!

        • Matt Moczygemba
          January 6, 2015 at 8:27 am

          Zack,

          No problem. I agree with you that packaging Bogut-Chandler together may be a good idea if you’re hesitant to drop Bogut since he was a top-50 value when on the court. Your three most droppable guys are Bogut, Chandler, and Covington although I wouldn’t consider dropping last two at all right now. Can’t drop Hibbert either imo, has been slumping in BLK lately but hard to find someone capable of 2+ blocks on wire.

        • Zack Thomas
          January 7, 2015 at 10:46 am

          Thanks again so much! I really appreciate your dedication to your readers. I noticed some pretty decent guys on the wire earlier. Would you swap out any of my team for any of these guys?

          Lou Williams
          Cole Aldrich
          PJ Tucker
          George Hill
          Jeff Green
          Lance Stephenson

          Thanks again!

  5. January 7, 2015 at 9:38 pm — Reply

    I would drop Wilson Chandler for Jeff Green and possibly Cole Aldrich.

    • Zack Thomas
      January 8, 2015 at 12:10 pm — Reply

      Thanks, Matt! Easily my favorite Fanalyst online!

  6. Mustafa
    January 8, 2015 at 6:04 pm — Reply

    Hey, I play Yahoo 8 cat fantasy basketball and I was wondering if I should do this trade? Keep in mind the only categories im relatively good at and therefore willing to care about are; FG%, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, double doubles and triple doubles. I mostly care about assists right now though

    Should i do this trade?
    I give:
    Chris paul,
    Greg Monroe,
    Nerlens Noel

    For:
    Rajan Rondo,
    Tyson Chandler,
    Joakim Noah

    I only wanted to do this trade because of the assists and rebounds (but mostly assists) but after reading that Rondo’s assists have gone down since his trade to the mavs, im kind of stuck wondering if I should still go do this?

    • January 9, 2015 at 6:38 pm — Reply

      I wouldn’t. CP3 is a top-5 player and you wouldn’t be receiving anyone near his caliber in a trade. Monroe’s value is on the rise due to release of Josh Smith as well. Noah/Chandler both have durability issues and Noah’s upside is capped compared to last year due to D-Rose and Pau Gasol being in lineup plus improvement of Jimmy Butler. Rondo is obviously great asset in REB-AST-ST but his percentages are horrible and it limits his upside as a result. If you care most about adding AST at this point it doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade one of the best passers in the league.

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.