Fantasy Basketball

2015-16 Fantasy Basketball: Yahoo ADP Analysis — Undervalued Targets

Constantly we are looking for that slight edge on the competition in drafts, and a great way to be one step ahead is to review the recent ADP list on the site that you’ll be drafting on and noting players that are going both too high and too low. I will be going over both the overvalued and undervalued players from Yahoo’s ADP list.

In this article I will be going over the undervalued ADP targets. These are players who are deserving to be taken a decent bit higher in drafts than they are currently, and it is possible that you can get them a little later than you may have thought because of this. So, who are we getting at a discount on Yahoo at this point in the offseason? Let’s find out.

Paul George — Indiana Pacers — SG/SF — Y! ADP 23.6

Look, I get it. He broke his leg in horrific fashion a summer ago and that instantly rushes fear through your mind that a re-injury could occur, and that can shy you away from taking that “risk” in the top two rounds. A few things instantly popped in my head when I saw this ADP as I’ll now explain. The simple fact is, Doctors told NBA writers after the unfortunate injury that it was a bad injury and how long he was out depended on how the tissue and muscle around the bone healed, the bone wasn’t of real concern for a guy as young and athletic as George.

The most promising part for George is that he already returned at the tail end of last season, so he was already back to NBA action for the final six games in April. So, we’re concerned that a freak athlete like George isn’t going to be 100% (team has already reported he’s 100%) and remain healthy on a leg he had fully rehabbed over five months ago? Paul finished 2013-14 as the 9th best fantasy player in 8-category leagues and that kind of upside should be grabbed no later than 16th overall as far as I am concerned, and I’d likely take him around 12th personally. You can play it safe and go with another option, but I am going for the highest upside of that bunch. The guy racked up 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 2.3 treys and shot above 86% from the free throw line. His only downfall is he shoots it around 42% from the field, but I am ok with that con vs all of his pros.

Rudy Gobert — Utah Jazz — C — Y! ADP 25.5

I know, I know… “Get off of Rudy Gobert’s jock already, Zack.” I understand you feeling that way and accept that. I just think he’s still being a bit under-drafted for what he can potentially do another year stronger and experienced. Even if somehow this 23-year-old phenom plateaus at where he ended last season, he’d STILL outperform this ADP by a good margin. The last three months of last season Gobert ranked 15th according to BasketballMonster.com and 8th(!!) the last two months.

Rudy’s post-All-Star break numbers where he started the final 29 games were a dazzling 11.1 points – 13.4 boards – 1.8 assists – 1.0 steals – 2.6 blocks while shooting a strong 57.6% from the field and a totally manageable 63.3% from the foul line on 4.8 FTA (And don’t look now but he’s made 72% of his free throws representing France in the EuroBasket tourney). As if those numbers aren’t enough, I think there’s room for an uptick in his points, maybe closer to 13 PPG and I really believe the Stifle Tower will hit right at or narrowly miss three blocks a night. I wouldn’t think anyone was crazy to even take him as high as 10th overall, but I am guessing his ADP closer to season time will land more around 15th.

Pau Gasol — Chicago Bulls — PC/C — Y! ADP 29.9

What does a guy have to do to fully earn your respect? I know Pau is not a sexy upside pick being that he’s older and well, not the easiest to look at, but the guy has been a fantasy stud for basically all 14 years of his NBA career. In his 34-year-old season (last year) he was an All-Star, finished 15th on BasketballMonster in 8-cat and he’s been the most beastly player this summer in the EuroBasket tournament. Explain to me what part of the following stat line you’re not interested in taking inside the top two rounds of your draft: 18.5 points – 11.8 rebounds – 2.7 assists – 1.9 blocks – 49% FG – 80% FT.

Yeah, quit looking at his age and his google images and just look at the numbers. Pau is the man, and if you’re not going to take him because you would rather shoot for young flashy upside, so be it, but you’ll hate him being on your competitions’ side soon enough. LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Nikola Vucevic are all going before Pau when they really shouldn’t be. I don’t care if the new coach cuts his minutes from 34 to 30, Pau is going to continue to be a fantasy force this season, no doubt about it.

Reggie Jackson — Detroit Pistons — PG/SG — Y! ADP 85.5

Once Reggie Jackson was traded from Oklahoma City to Detroit, he went from backing up one of the best players in the league to a team’s starting floor general, and he welcomed that task after saying a year prior that he was good enough to be THE guy on a team and desired Kemba Walker type money. Things started a little slow (or maybe I should say inconsistent) for him the first month which isn’t surprising, but the last month of the season, RJax went HAM. In those final 16 games, Reggie averaged 19.9 points, 4.9 boards, 10.9 assists(!!), 0.8 steals and 1.1 treys, while shooting an impressive 48% from the field (on 15.6 FGA) and 75.3% from the foul line (on 5.1 FTA).

So, over the last two months Jackson ranked 44th and then 20th the last month. While I’m not taking him top-20 overall like Mark Kaplan did in the industry roto mock draft, I do think he should definitely be going top-40 overall. Assists aren’t easy to come by and if Jackson can continue to dish out 8+ (because staying at 10.9 would be tough, but it isn’t impossible), that’d be outstanding. Steal him in round 4-5 in your yahoo draft, but don’t get too greedy and miss out.

**(One bonus PG that I feel is also going too late is Isaiah Thomas, with a Y! ADP of 77.5. If you can afford the hit to your FG%, Isaiah will be a terrific PG addition with his big time points, threes and elite FT% boosting numbers. He should be going closer to 50-60th in drafts.)

Gorgui Dieng — Minnesota Timberwolves — PF/C — Y! ADP 113.9

The Timberwolves drafted a big man, they re-signed Kevin Garnett, they gave up a 1st round pick to obtain Adreian Payne and as of this moment (maybe not by the time I publish this) Nikola Pekovic is healthy, but the 25-year-old Gorgui Dieng is the second biggest part of this group of bigs and is still going to get his time. Dieng is the best defensive big man that the Wolves have, at least until Karl-Anthony Towns learns that fouling out every night is not a benefit to the team.

With Garnett likely to sit out a lot of back-to-backs and Pekovic always due for his next ankle injury, Gorgui is still going to see enough court time to deliver his lovely stat lines to your fantasy team. While he’s not a big scorer, he does a lot of good elsewhere that more than makes up for it, and hopefully you collected enough high scorers in the earlier rounds to compensate for his lack there of. In 30 minutes per game last season, Dieng delivered a balanced line of 9.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.7 blocks and fitting right into my strategy (and heart), 50% FG and 78.3% FT. Dieng should see more than 30 minutes on the nights that KG sits and between 26 and 30 on nights KG plays.

Danilo Gallinari — Denver Nuggets — SF — Y! ADP 120.9

This one is disturbingly bad and is certain to decline drastically over the next couple of weeks. Danilo Gallinari finished last season in beastly fashion and more importantly, healthy. As if that wasn’t enough to peak interest heading into this season, Gallo dominated EuroBasket this summer for Italy, showing off his elite scoring ability and more. In eight FIBA games this summer, Danilo posted a stellar line of 17.9 points, 6.9 boards, 2.8 dimes and over a trey a game in just under 30 minutes per game. He also continued to show his ability to kill teams from the foul line, averaging over seven free throw attempts per game and knocking them down at an 88% clip.

To end last season, Gallo reminded us of what he once showed flashes of being, an NBA All-Star caliber player, but his injury history lingers in drafters minds, hence his ridiculous ADP. The final two months of last season Gallo ranked 19th(!!) on BM with his 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.8 trifectas, shooting 44% from the field and 89% from the foul line in 24 games. I know it’s tough to be confident that he’ll play anywhere near 82 games, but the upside is insane here and the value for where you can get him, makes him that much more enticing. I’d be fine drafting Gallinari as high as the sixth round but if you can land him in the eighth, that’d be even better. His ADP will be down to inside the top-100 really soon. The hype is building rapidly.

Myles Turner — Indiana Pacers — C — 137.1

I broke down why I love Myles Turner so much in my dynasty rookie rankings but it’s not just dynasty leagues I like him for. I think Turner can dish out nice fantasy stats even in his rookie season due to the cushy setup he steps into. He is an efficient big guy, although there’s sure to be some down moments as with most any 19-year-old rookie, but his shot blocking ability is what I feel will keep him a fantasy factor all season long.

Another example of a guy who fits my wait on big men and still win blocks and help your percentages movement, Turner can even extend out and hit threes as well. Myles had an incredible summer league and while he won’t emulate those in the big show this year, he should still have no problem racking up boards and blocks with solid percentages with the minutes he’ll receive in Indy. I would draft him as high as the eighth round if I needed blocks badly and other targets got snatched up, but I would love him even more if he’s there in rounds 9-10.

 

For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44

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