Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: March 4th
Today’s NBA daily fix features a couple players at each position that I highly recommend for today’s 13-game NBA slate. In addition to the two player breakdowns per position and I’ll add a few cheap risk options. At the end I will list the top-7 players I’ll be using at each position in cash games tonight. Remember that this is written up in advance of any starting lineup and most inactive news updates. Be sure to keep your eyes on Twitter and/or Rotoworld for updates that could change things in a big way. Good luck to you all and let’s get money tonight!
Just so it’s clarified, whenever I say “hits value” or something of the sort, value = 4x price. So, if you have Mo Williams at $7000 he’d need to put up 28+ DK points to hit value. Westbrook at $11,500 (11.5) would need to go for 46+ DK points to meet value.
Russell Westbrook ($11,500) – I can’t not list Westbrook with the way he’s been destroying the league — especially since KD has been out — with his insane usage and assist rates, but if there were ever a time you could even fathom fading him, it’s tonight versus the pathetic Sixers. Vegas has OKC favored by 15 points, so there’s potential Westbrook sits late, but he’s more than capable of 50 DK points even in 28 minutes. I’m not saying he’s a fade, I’m saying that this is the one night that if you did and he still blew up, I wouldn’t call you a fool. Also, he’ll be wearing a face mask and you never know how a players first game in a mask will go but it may make him that much more frightening when attacking the defense.
Mo Williams ($7000) – He’s hitting that price range where he’s not quite a must play but he’s been so fantastic since joining the Hornets from the get go, not landing below 28 DK points yet and 44+ in three straight. There’s some slight concern that it’s a back-to-back and against a Brooklyn team that plays at a slow pace, but I think Mo still gets his in this one and keeps his streak of hitting value as a Hornet going.
Isaiah Thomas ($6200) – I am still loving IT at this price level. I know he (and the whole Celtics team) didn’t do much last night getting creamed by the Cavs but they should hold their own tonight at home against Utah. So, IT should see around 30 minutes and he’ll get back on track of producing above 1 fantasy point per minute which always leads him to value at this price.
Cheap risk options: Jeremy Lin ($4100) has been on fire lately putting up 36 – 19 – 30 – 45 – 48 DK points over his last five and there’s little reason to believe he won’t get around 30 minutes and produce 30+ DK points again tonight. Ray McCallum ($3600) and Norris Cole ($3400) both have been up and down lately but if you need to go real cheap with a guard spot, they have 30 point upside but the floor is low as well.
Dwyane Wade ($7100) – Wade has lost his name appeal when it comes to DFS as he’s looked at more so now as a guy who misses games frequently and is no longer elite. I’m OK with him not being elite as long as he’s not priced as such and him just above $7k is a place I am comfortable rolling him out there. he’s had 34, 37 and 40 DK point showings in three of his last four and his usage rate will remain high tonight against the Lakers who have nobody to even somewhat slow Wade down on the offensive end. I would be surprised if he didn’t hit above 40 DK points in this matchup.
Rodney Stuckey ($5300) – Seems like I’m living dangerously here, eh? I don’t care. Stuckey is tearing it up lately, getting good minutes off the bench, taking on an overly weak Knicks opponent and is at a really favorable price. He’s hit well above value in four of his last five and all is squared up for another nice stat line from the 50 cent look-a-like.
Cheap risk options: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4300) has been a quality DFS option since the deadline and I like him as a cheap play tonight. Manu Ginobili ($3500) is an interesting option at this cheap of a cost and I will be rolling him out in a few lineups as a cheap risk play. He’s averaged 26 DK points in three games against Sacramento this season.
LeBron James ($10,400) – If you do dare to fade Westbrook, LeBron is the way to go as your top dollar stud tonight. 49 – 72 – 65 – 46 DK points in his last four and that 46 was last night against the Celtics where he only played 26 minutes, wow. In three games versus Toronto this season Bron is averaging 49 DK points and he’s on a mission against the top teams in the East right now, so look for another message to be sent tonight.
Tobias Harris ($6300) – In the last game you could really see Tobias looking like his pre-injury self again and he has a really favorable matchup tonight against Phoenix who struggles to stop small forwards. With a healthy 202 over/under on this game, there’s plenty of scoring to be done and Tobias should be doing a good bit of it himself. He had 36 DK points last time against Phoenix.
Cheap risk options: Not much as far as values (under $5k) in the SF department but Dante Cunningham ($3800) is an option but only if Anthony Davis sits this one out. Cunningham is averaging 27 DK points over his last four games with Brow sidelined. Michael Beasley ($3300) is a scary option but he’s gotten 10+ shots in back-to back games for the Heat and he could see added minutes late in this one. If you need a truly cheap gamble it’s worth considering Beasley but very risky.
Draymond Green ($6800) – Dray has looked a lot more like his early season self the past week or so and he showed his DFS ability in his last game posting 27 DK points despite only scoring 3 points in the game. He’s so good at filling the entire stat sheet and that’s how he stays in value more often than not. Prior to the last game he had back-to-back-to-back 42 DK point nights and that’s around where I see him ending up tonight.
Kenneth Faried ($5100) – BRIAN SHAW IS GONE! *Pops champagne* … OK, let’s continue. Faried looked like a Manimal who was freed after months of captivity in the Nuggets game last night as he racked up a 14 and 14 double-double in 32 minutes. When Faried gets 30+ minutes, he tends to get his double-double with mixed in defensive stats and at this price I am not feeling too concerned of a trap game. I’ll be expecting 30+ minutes and 30+ DK points tonight against a poor set of defensive power forwards in Minnesota.
Cheap risk options: Thomas Robinson ($3700) hasn’t gotten a minutes boost yet but has hit 20+ DK points in three straight games with his new team. With Robert Covington out and his solid play, I think TRob is a safe bet to stay above 20 with slight upside if he gets any extra PT due to his good play or because the game is a blowout in the 4th at this low price. Jakarr Sampson ($3300) is starting for Covington tonight so maybe he sees an extra 5-10 minutes of playing time and can get you around 25 DK points, but this is the Sixers and there are no certainties. Channing Frye ($3300) is a high risk play but against his old team and basically he hits value when he’s hitting from deep and falls to useless if he’s off from long range. If you go this route just pray his 3-point range target is turned on tonight. Lou Amundson ($3400), tread lightly here but he’s hit value in three of four.
Hassan Whiteside ($8300) – Whiteside needs to produce 33+ DK points to hit value tonight and that’s about his floor in my opinion. I think around 40 is a safe bet with an upside of 50 against an inferior set of big men for the Lakers. I will have a tough time not going with Whiteside at C tonight.
Rudy Gobert ($6700) – You know the drill here. Rudy is a beast and really stunted on us last night with his 15 points and 24 boards (47 DK points). He’s hit above value in every single Jazz game since Enes Kanter was traded out of town. His skills, price and matchup will have likely make him one of the three highest owned players tonight. If you’re in a GPP maybe you fade just to try and make up ground on the 60% or more who use him but that’s not to say he won’t reward them for it.
Cheap risk options: I’m not taking a big risk at center tonight but if you do Omer Asik ($4800) is an option if Anthony Davis is out. Asik has hit value in three of the last four games AD has been out and this is a favorable matchup for him. Spencer Hawes ($3600) hasn’t been anything special but he’s so cheap that his 21 – 23 – 35 – 20 over the past four have all hit above value and they may need his shooting range tonight to spread the floor against the Blazers.
Cash game rankings: (Not who I think will score the most, it’s who I feel the best plays are based on price and production)
1) Isaiah Thomas
2) Mo Williams
3) Russell Westbrook
4) Jeremy Lin
5) Tyreke Evans
6) Chris Paul
7) George Hill
8) Reggie Jackson — I like as a GPP contrarion play
1) Rodney Stuckey
2) Dwyane Wade
3) Victor Oladipo
4) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
5) Eric Gordon
6) DeMar DeRozan
7) Kevin Martin
8) Manu Ginobili
1) LeBron James
2) Tobias Harris
3) Kawhi Leonard
4) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
5) Andrew Wiggins
6) Trevor Ariza
7) Dante Cunningham (only if AD is out)
1) Draymond Green
2) Kenneth Faried
3) Derrick Favors
4) Greg Monroe
5) Nerlens Noel
6) Thomas Robinson
7) Markieff Morris
1) Hassan Whiteside
2) Rudy Gobert
3) Al Jefferson
4) Andre Drummond
5) DeAndre Jordan
6) Brook Lopez
7) Enes Kanter
8) Omer Asik
For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44