2016 Fantasy BaseballBrett TalleyFantasy Baseball

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 27, 2016 – DraftKings & FanDuel Analysis

Below we’ve got breakdowns for each game of Monday’s 10-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel along with player rankings, projections and a research chart.

Game Breakdowns

After the jump we’ll break down each game on Monday night from a DFS perspective.

Mets @ Nationals

Noah Syndergaard ranks fifth among 98 qualified starters in strikeout rate, third in walk rate, third in K-BB% and second in both xFIP and SIERA. He’s in a three-way race with Max Scherzer and Jose Fernandez for “second best starting pitcher in the world.” Anytime he pitches he’s very much an option, and his matchup with Washington tonight does nothing to remove him from consideration as the Nats rank 18th in wRC+ with an average strikeout rate vs. RHP. He shouldn’t be too tough to fit into DK lineups when paired with a cheaper SP2, but he will be a bit tougher to fit in on FD.

Joe Ross will oppose Syndergaard, which obviously hurts his chances of picking up a win tonight. Given that he’s really only priced for use on FD, the improbability of getting a W hurts him since a W is far more beneficial on FD than it is on DK. He’s not in a bad spot against a Mets team that strikes out more than average vs. RHP, but other factors remove him from consideration. And because the reason Ross isn’t in considertaion has nothing to do with Ross himself, Mets bats aren’t really options either. James Loney could be a good salary relief option against the righty, but first base isn’t the best spot to be looking for savings.

Rangers @ Yankees

Both of these teams are in play as stack options tonight, and the Yanks are the better option of the two. They’ll face Chi Chi Gonzalez who is making his first start of the season. He threw 67 big league innings last year with a 3.90 ERA, but that was a complete mirage. He walked more batters than he struck out and his SIERA was woeful at 5.59. In 14 starts this year at Triple-A his ERA is an ugly 5.04.

Literally any Yankee bat you want to roster is good by me. Carlos Beltran has been swinging the best bat of the bunch for several weeks, though that has driven his price tag up. He’s pricey on DK but affordable enough on FD. Brian McCann has turned it on in the last week or so and makes for a good option at a thin position, especially on FD where he’s very reasonably priced. In fact, the whole team is priced much more favorably on FD than DK, and they’re all good options there.

As for the Rangers, they have a good matchup against Ivan Nova, though Nova isn’t nearly as hitter-friendly as Chi Chi. Nova has been a bit unlucky this season with a HR/9 just shy of 2.00 despite being a heavy ground ball pitcher. When a few more fly balls stay in the yard, his ERA should trend toward 4.00.

The best Texas option against Nova is probably Shin-Soo Choo who has a 137 wRC+ vs. RHP between this year and last and reasonable price tags on both sites. Prince Fielder has been going better of late, so he could be an option as well with cheap price tags. Lefties like Rougned Odor, Mitch Moreland and Nomar Mazara could be options as well even though they’ve struggled to varying degrees of late. Right-handers Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus could be included in a stack, but they’re pricey for cash use.

Stack suggestions: Yankees 1-6 minus ARod, Rangers 1-6 minus Beltre

Red Sox @ Rays

Each team has a couple of hitters worth a look based on strong stats with the platoon advantage. For Boston, Xander Bogaerts has a 151 wRC+ vs. LHP between this year and last, and Chris Young has a career wRC+ of 124 vs. LHP. For the Rays, Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria have wRC+’s of 169 and 153 vs. LHP between this year and last, respectively. Young is a nice value on both sites, Xander on Longoria are priced decently on FD, and Forsythe is a big bargain on FD.

Cubs @ Reds

Jake Arrieta has a choice matchup with the Reds who rank 27th in wRC+ vs. RHP and have the sixth highest strikeout rate against them. However, Syndergaard may be the better option. Thor is $1,500 cheaper on DK and $1,100 cheaper on FD, and, as discussed above, Thor has numbers that can only be viewed as inferior when compared to Kershaw. Arrieta has good numbers to be sure. For one thing, he limits hard contact better than just about anyone. But he has his warts as evidenced by his 9.1 percent walk rate. Were he and Thor priced similarly, his matchup might trump Thor’s superior statistics. But with that much of a gap in price tag, Thor is the more appealing option.

As for bats, just about any Cubs you like are in play against Dan Straily who has the third highest xFIP of any starter going today. Straily leans a bit fly ball-heavy, and even more so to right-handers, so some Cubbies have a good chance of leaving the yard today. Anthony Rizzo is the best bet as he owns a 154 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 233 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Willson Contreras has also raked since his call-up with a 266 wRC+. Contreras is more affordable on FD, and Rizzo is worth paying up for whenever you can on either site.

Jason Heyward also jumps out as a nice play despite his recent struggles simply because those struggles have pushed his price tag way down. He has plenty of value potential at his price point. Kris Bryant is also a good option, and any Cubs will work in a stack if you’re trying to string together consecutive hitters.

Stack suggestion: Chicago 1-5

Indians @ Braves

Trevor Bauer has been excellent this month posting a 1.86 (3.24 xFIP) in five June starts. That said, there’ absolutely no reason he should cost $600 more than Thor on DK, even if Bauer does have a good matchup with the Braves who rank last in wRC+ vs. RHP. Bauer is cheaper than Thor on FD, but only by $900 which still makes him over-priced. Don’t get hung up on the favorable matchup. Look elsewhere.

A few bats make sense here, one of them being Freddie Freeman against Bauer. Freeman has a 209 wRC+ in the last 14 and a 138 wRC+ vs. RHP between this year and last. He’s also priced very, very well on both sites and is reasonable salary relief at a position where you rarely look for it. For the Tribe, Lonnie Chisenhall as a punt option on DK is about it. Francisco Lindor has been going very well and is tempting to roster, but he’s over-priced.

Cardinals @ Royals

Danny Duffy has only made about half as many starts as Thor and Arrieta this season, but he has a better SIERA than Arrieta and trails only Syndergaard in SIERA among today’s starters. He’ll face the Cardinals who rank second in wRC+ vs. RHP but 25th against lefties like Duffy. Duffy might not quite be trustworthy enough to be your one pitcher on FD (though he could work in a GPP), but he makes for a very nice cheap SP2 on DK.

Blue Jays @ Rockies

You know to get exposure to Coors in cash, and you know it’s OK to fade it and hope in GPPs. In cash, guys like Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon are the obvious names with the platoon advantage against Marco Estrada. But the righties will do just fine as well as Estrada, a fly ball-heavy pitcher, is even more fly-ball heavy against righties. That makes a guy like Trevor Story a good option on FD where he’s priced fairly reasonably. If you must stack Rox in GPPs, look down the lineup a bit with guys like Daniel Descalso, Cristhian Adames, Tony Wolters and Nick Hundley if they’re in the lineup. Including a few of those guys at the tail end of a 4-8 stack or as part of a wrap around stack back to the top of the order could help you differentiate a bit.

As for the Blue Jays, five guys on the team have a wRC+higher than 175 in the last 14 days. The problem is that they’re all very expensive. Like grossly so, especially the studs like Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. The one guy out of those five that’s priced somewhere close to reasonably is Michael Saunders on DK. The other guy I might try to fit in (presuming Donaldson and E5 are just unworkable) is Devon Travis who owns a 130 wRC+ without the platoon advantage.

Stack suggestion: Rockies 4-8

Phillies @ Diamondbacks

It never feels safe recommending pitchers in Arizona, but…here goes. Robbie Ray and Vincent Velasquez both have some appeal tonight.

Ray’s appeal is obvious. The Phillies rank dead last in wRC+ vs. LHP, and them and the Braves are worse than every other team by a mile. The Phils also have the eighth highest K% vs. LHP, so this matchup couldn’t be much better for Ray. With a strikeout rate of 25.6 percent on the season, Ray is well suited to capitalize on the matchup. And the Phils are particularly well suited to Ray who struggles with walks as they have the seventh lowest walk rate vs. LHP. Ray is over-priced on DK, but he definitely has enough strikeout upside to be a GPP option on FD.

Velasquez will return from the DL tonight to make his first start in almost three weeks. The fact that he’s fresh off the DL means the Phillies will likely be cautious with him, which hurts his value and pretty much removes him from cash consideration. But because this is his first start back, his price tags are reduced to levels that give him value potential. The D’Backs have the fifth highest K% vs. RHP and Velasquez has a 25.9 percent strikeout rate, so he could rack up enough K’s to return plenty of value in GPPs.

Astros @ Angels

The Matt Shoemaker train slowed a bit in his last start, which also happened to be against Houston, but he still struck out seven while walking only two and pitching into the eighth inning. Tonight he’ll have the advantage of pitching in his much more pitcher-friendly home park as opposed to hitter-friendly Houston. Houston has the third highest K% vs. RHP, so there’s plenty of GPP upside here for Shoe. He’s also very much a cash option given that he has a 2.09 ERA (2.59 xFIP) in his last seven starts with 62 strikeouts and only four walks in 51.2 innings. He’s priced very well on FD and may be just a tad under-priced on DK.

As for bats in this game, Mike Trout is always an option, though tonight’s matchup with Collin McHugh and Houston’s solid bullpen don’t make him a must play. And if you’re desperate for salary relief in a GPP, perhaps Luis Valbuena and Jason Castro at the end of Houston’s order could work as they’ve both been going well and will have the platoon advantage on Shoemaker.

Athletics @ Giants

Jeff Samardzija is over-priced on FD, and the A’s don’t strikeout enough for him to be a GPP option, even on DK where he’s priced well. But the A’s rank 25th in wRC+ vs. RHP, and this game is in very pitcher-friendly San Francisco, so Samardzija is an option for cash games on DK. The Shark is much cheaper than Shoemaker on DK, so if you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 to pair with Thor or Arrieta and you can’t bring yourself to trust Duffy, Samardzija is your guy. As for bats, the only guy in play is Brandon Belt who has a wRC+ of 182 in the last 14 days and a 144 wRC+ vs. RHP between this year and last.

Player Rankings

**Players are listed according to their FD positional eligibility

Catcher

  1. Brian McCann (better value on FD)
  2. Willson Contreras (better value on FD)
  3. Miguel Montero (better value on FD
  4. Nick Hundley (better value on DK)
  5. Jason Castro (better value on DK)
  6. Cameron Rupp

First Base

  1. Anthony Rizzo
  2. Freddie Freeman
  3. Prince Fielder
  4. Mark Teixeira
  5. Edwin Encarnacion
  6. Brandon Belt

Second Base

  1. Rougned Odor (better value on FD)
  2. Logan Forsythe (better value on FD)
  3. Ben Zobrist
  4. Devon Travis
  5. Jurickson Profar
  6. Daniel Descalso

Third Base

  1. Kris Bryant
  2. Nolan Arenado
  3. Evan Longoria (better value on FD)
  4. Chase Headley
  5. Josh Donaldson
  6. Luis Valbuena (better value on DK)

Shortstop

  1. Didi Gregorius (better value on FD, avoid on DK)
  2. Javier Baez
  3. Xander Bogaerts
  4. Trevor Story (better value on FD)
  5. Cristhian Adames (better value on DK)
  6. Troy Tulowitzki

Outfield

  1. Carlos Gonzalez
  2. Shin-Soo Choo
  3. Charlie Blackmon
  4. Carlos Beltran (better value on FD)
  5. Jason Heyward
  6. Jacoby Ellsbury (better value on FD)
  7. Mitch Moreland (better value on FD)
  8. Brett Gardner (better value on FD)
  9. Mike Trout
  10. Mookie Betts
  11. Chris Young
  12. Lonnie Chisenhall (better value on DK)

Starting Pitcher

  1. Noah Syndergaard (better value on DK)
  2. Jake Arrieta (better value on DK)
  3. Matt Shoemaker (better value on FD)
  4. Danny Duffy
  5. Jeff Samardzija (cash only, DK only)
  6. Vincent Velasquez (GPP only)
  7. Robbie Ray (GPP only, FD only)

Research Chart

Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet. Projections are derived from Fangraphs Depth Chart projections, which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup. A glossary for the columns in the ‘hitter research’ tab is included below the chart.

SP Adj. – Projected FIP (based on ZiPS) of opposing pitcher against hitters of that handedness

BP Adj. – 2015 Fangraphs HR park factor for LHH or RHH

Pen Adj. – xFIP of opposing bullpen against hitters of that handedness

Last 7 – Hitter’s wRC+ in last seven days

Last 14 – Hitter’s wRC+ in last 14 days

L/R – Hitter’s 2015-2016 wRC+ against LHP or RHP

Additional projections and values are the same projections listed in the projection tabs.

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