2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week Ten Roundup
A 31-29 start this year isn’t exactly the start the St. Louis Cardinals had in mind after reaching the World Series in 2013. They started off their recent nine-game homestand 1-4 and it was announced that first baseman Matt Adams would require a stint on the 15-day disabled list due to a calf injury. An open spot in the starting lineup had suddenly opened and the clamoring for Oscar Taveras to be promoted to the major leagues had finally come to fruition. The Cardinals announced they would be promoting their exciting 21-year-old Dominican prospect for their game against the San Francisco Giants on May 31.
After batting .330 with runners in scoring position last season, the Cardinals have predictably regressed in that area while also struggling to hit many home runs. Frankly, that’s not a recipe for success. Adams was expected to be a guy capable of hitting 20+ homers this season, but prior to going on the DL he had only hit three bombs. Many were hopeful that Taveras could give the Cardinals an infusion on offense to lift the team much like Yasiel Puig did last year and the Cardinals had to be feeling good after Taveras’ Major League Baseball debut.
With that being said, it’s time to get the week 10 roundup started by making Taveras our first topic of discussion.
Taveras Debuts with a Bang
In his second MLB at-bat, Taveras hammered a hanging breaking ball from Giants starter Yusmeiro Petit into the right field bleachers. The home crowd went into a frenzy and the rookie earned himself a curtain call. You could say it was quite the start for the top prospect. You can see his beautiful swing and follow through in the ensuing gif.
Before getting called up to the bigs, Tavares raked in 49 games down at Triple-A Memphis. He produced a .325/.373/.524 slash line to go along with seven homers, 40 RBI, and 30 runs. During his career in the minors, Taveras produced a similar .321/.377/.519 slash line. The kid is going to rake and has all the skills to be a .300+ hitter, it’s just a matter of time to see how fast the process takes. Based on his minor league track record though, all signs point to him being a force sooner rather than later. Coming into the season, Baseball America and BaseballProspectus.com both ranked Taveras as the third ranked prospect in the game.
On the down side, Taveras doesn’t possess much in the way of speed as he had only swiped one bag at Triple-A this year. During his minor league career, he wasn’t very successful on the basepaths as evidenced by him going 35-51 on steals. That’s a minor caveat though. Through his first five MLB games, Taveras is batting .222 with a homer, two RBI, and two runs. He’s batted in the fifth, sixth, and seventh spots in the lineup so far. With guys like Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina hitting ahead of him, he should have ample opportunities to drive in runs in future games.
If he’s somehow still sitting on your waiver wire, pick him up immediately. He’s owned in 94.8% of ESPN leagues and 74% of Y! leagues. Taveras is an elite prospect and has all the tools to be a special player for the Cardinals. No one should be expecting him to be the next Puig or Mike Trout, because those types of talents and production don’t come along very often. With that being said, he should be able to be a top-150 value the rest of the way. With 102 games left in the Cardinals season, my forecast for him calls for a .282 average with 12 homers, 43 RBI, 46 runs, and two steals. Adams return from the DL could create some lineup quandaries, but Taveras wasn’t called up to sit on the bench.
Singleton Signs Historic Contract
Jon Singleton created quite the stir on Monday after he agreed to a five-year, $10 million contract with a maximum value of $35 million before ever stepping onto the field as a player of the Houston Astros. The Astros also announced the 22-year-old would be called up to be the starting first baseman for the ‘Stros. Just last year, Singleton served a 50-game suspension for failing a second drug test for marijuana and his troubles with the drug have been well documented. Singelton’s once promising career appeared to be headed down the wrong path. In 54 games at Triple-A this year though, Singleton cemented his status as a solid prospect by hitting .267 with 14 homers, 43 RBI, .544 SLG% and 42 walks.
In his MLB debut on Tuesday, Singleton went 1-3 with a homer and a bases loaded walk. He also struck out twice. Here is video of his first career homer. Another positive is that Singleton was hitting .309 against southpaws down at Triple-A over 68 at-bats. Singleton is a bit strikeout prone as he had 141 in 127 Triple-A games so he probably won’t be hitting for a great average with the Astros, although his career average in the minors was .279. Singleton also walks quite a bit, so that will increase his value exponentially in OBP leagues.
Although Singleton probably won’t hit more than 15 homers the rest of the way, he is an intriguing pickup in 12-team or deeper mixed leagues. Power is much harder to come by these days and Singleton could make for a quality corner infielder option or first baseman if you need an injury replacement. He’s available in 49% of Y! leagues, the move is yours.
Exam Yields Good News for Trout
Mike Trout hasn’t quite lived up the billing of the first overall pick so far, but he’s still the 24th ranked player in Y! and there is a ton of season left. A .293 average with 11 homers, 38 RBI, 34 runs, and five steals is nothing to scoff at either. Trout is the best player in the game though and expectations are that he should continue to post ungodly numbers at the plate like he has the last two years, but that hasn’t been the case quite yet. Trout owners got quite the scare on Tuesday after he was removed from the game after aggravating his back injury which had caused him to miss the last two games.
A MRI on Wednesday though showed the superstar is only dealing with back inflammation and it sounds like he’ll avoid a stint on the 15-day DL. It might be a couple days before he is patrolling center field again, but his return is just around the corner. When he gets back to the starting lineup though, Trout needs to make some adjustments at the plate. His strikeout percentage has soared from 19.0% in 2013 to 26.3% this year. Additionally, his walk rate has fallen from 15.0% to 12.3% while his line drive rate has plummeted from 23.0% to 18.4%, a career-worst rate.
The last two years against right-handed pitchers, Trout hit .346 and .327, but this year he is hitting only .289 against them. All of those stats aren’t meant to project a gloom and doom scenario for Trout though, just laying out the facts that he is struggling more than he has the last two years. He’s still likely to hit around 25 homers with close to 100 RBI and runs, although his steal total of five is certainly lower than owners were expecting. He’ll be just fine, but the declining steals total suggests he may not have as much fantasy upside as many thought coming into the season.
Bow Down to the King
In his 10th MLB season with the Seattle Mariners, Felix Hernandez has looked better than ever. Through his first 13 starts, Hernandez has a 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 91:16 K/BB ratio in 91 IP. Known for his poor run support and low amount of wins for how dominant he’s been over the years, Hernandez even owns an 8-1 record. His career high in wins is 19 back in 2009 and that’s the only time he’s ever even cleared the 15 win mark. All in all, his great statline so far has led to King Felix being the 17th ranked player in Y! leagues.
Hernandez’s 91 innings are tied for most in MLB and he has only allowed three homers over his 13 starts. Because of that, his 0.30 HR/9 ranks third in baseball. Need more evidence that he’s having a great season? His 3.2 WAR is best among starters, his walk rate of 4.4% is a career-low, and his K-BB% is 20.7%, tied for ninth best. Righties are hitting a putrid .218 against him as well. Hernandez seems to have slightly altered his pitching philosophy this season as his fastball usage is down while his changeup usage is up. His increase in changeup usage seems to be bad news for hitters, as his wCH pitch value of 7.3 is second best to Stephen Strasburg. According to BrooksBaseball, Hernandez has thrown his changeup 345 times and hitters a hitting a paltry .110 against that pitch.
He is obviously showing no signs of slowing down and he could be pitching better than he is. His LOB rate of 69.0% is a career-low and it’s very impressive his ERA is as low as it is considering he’s not stranding as many runners as usual. For the rest of the season, the only pitchers I would rank above Hernandez are Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka.
A Tradition Unlike Any Other: Cargo Heads to DL
Carlos Gonzalez had gotten off to a rather rotten start in 2014 even before it was announced that he would be placed on the 15-day DL with inflammation in his left index finger on Wednesday. His .255 average and .307 OBP in particular are eye-opening and he amassed eight home runs, 31 RBI, and 27 runs in his first 52 games. Gonzalez has also stolen at least 20 bases the last four years, but has only managed to swipe two bags so far. Those subpar numbers led to Cargo being the 110th ranked player in Y! heading into Wednesday’s games.
There are a lot of problems in his game when you look at his batting profile. Gonzalez is a career .304 hitter versus right-handed pitchers, but was only hitting .244 against them so far this year. He sports a .194 ISO which would be solid for most players, but it would be his lowest rate since his rookie year in 2008. His 14.7% line drive rate would be a career-low, he’s hitting ground balls half the time, and his 39.3% O-Swing rate is the worst of his career. We all know that being a player on the Colorado Rockies means the inevitable home/road splits, but Gonzalez’s are ludicrous this year. He is hitting 21-114 (.184) away from Coors Field, while he is 29-82 (.354) at home. To put it bluntly, Cargo is having a crappy season so far.
Owners may be able to sell Gonzalez to owners sitting at the top of the standings who have a comfortable lead and/or plenty of depth, but his current situation means his trade value isn’t as high as it would be if he were healthy and producing. The best course of action would be to hold onto Gonzalez and weather the storm. Gonzalez has admitted that he can’t grip the bat like he normally does due to his injury, so maybe some rest will do him wonders when he returns to the plate. This is still a top-10 guy when all cylinders are clicking.
Monday Tidbits: Cliff Lee (elbow) said he hopes to resume throwing by the end of the week. He’s still feeling some discomfort, so a return is weeks in the making. A.J. Pollock had surgery on his fracture right hand on Monday and is expected to be out for at least two months. Fantasy owners can drop him in redraft formats. Clayton Kershaw struck out nine and limited the Chicago White Sox to two earned runs over eight innings. Of course, the runs came courtesy of a Jose Abreu two-run homer in his first game back from the disabled list. Danny Duffy had his best start of the year as he allowed only one hit over six shutout innings against their in-state rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. Matt Garza hurled 6 1/3 shutout innings against his former team, the Minnesota Twins. Garza still sports a lousy 4.42 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Kyle Seager broke out in a big way as he smacked a homer, two triples, and a double for three RBI. Justin Masterson had his best start of the year (7 IP, 0 ER, 10 K) against the surging Boston Red Sox. Yordano Ventura (elbow) had a successful bullpen session and is expected to start on Thursday against Michael Wacha and the Cardinals. Hopefully he makes it through is outing unscathed.
Tuesday Tidbits: Colorado Rockies pitching prospect Eddie Butler will be promoted from Double-A on Friday to make his MLB debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field. The 23-year-old sports a 2.05 ERA in the minors and is worth a pickup in 12-team or deeper mixed leagues. Kolten Wong made the first home run of his career a memorable one as he hit a grand slam off James Shields. Ryan Zimmerman (thumb) went 2-4 with a RBI in his return from the DL. He also made his debut in left field and it went rather smoothly. Wil Myers was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right wrist and will miss at least the next two months. Redraft owners can move on. Prior to Tuesday’s outburst, Brandon Moss was the last opponent at Yankee Stadium to hit two homers in a game there. He still is after he blasted two more yesterday. Moss deserves to make the All-Star team at this point. Josh Hamilton (thumb) hit a solo shot in his return from the DL. Looks like he picked up right where he left off. Collin McHugh fired five more shutout innings against the Los Angeles Angels, raising his scoreless streak to 12 innings. Why is he only owned in 36% of Y! leagues? Neil Walker hit his 11th homer of the year, leaving him five short of his career-high of 16 homers. Brian Dozier had a slump-buster game as he went 3-3 with a homer and two runs. Josh Willingham hit his fourth homer in his last six games, make the add if you need power. Scott Kazmir fanned a season-high 10 batters in his start against the Yankees. Hard to believe how dominant he has been (2.40 ERA) considering how far away from MLB he was just a couple years ago. Gio Gonzalez is scheduled to make a rehab start at High-A Potomac on Friday. Billy Hamilton stole two more bases and is up to 22 for the season. Alex Gordon hit his second homer in as many nights and is heating up at the plate. 21-57 (.368) over his last 16 games. Homer Bailey notched his third quality start in a row (6 IP, 3 ER, 7 K) against the San Francisco Giants and has his ERA (4.99) under the 5.00 mark for the first time all year. Continue to buy on him before it’s too late. Drew Hutchison‘s impressive 2014 campaign continued as he held the Detroit Tigers scoreless over seven innings while striking out seven. Hutchison has a 3.50 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 72 IP and deserves to be owned in most mixed leagues at this point. He’s available in 70% of Y! leagues.
Wednesday Tidbits: Shane Victorino (hamstring) is over a week away from beginning a rehab assignment. Andrew Cashner (elbow) is expected to return from the DL on Saturday to make his start against the Washington Nationals. Jose Iglesias (shins) has been ruled out for the season. Huston Street notched his 18th straight save to start the year. His 18 saves are tied with Sergio Romo for most in MLB. Mike Morse belted his 12th homer. Edwin Encarnacion was removed from Wednesday’s game with back tightness. He’s considered day-to-day. Yoenis Cespedes blasted two solo shots against the Yankees. Jacoby Ellsbury hit a three-run homer and extended his hitting streak to nine games. Sean Doolittle converted his seventh save of the year and ran his scoreless streak to 15 outings in a row. Garrett Richards threw eight shutout innings while striking out nine Astros. Stephen Strasburg struck out 11 over seven innings against the Phillies, earning a win and lowering his ERA to 3.10. A.J. Burnett got lit up as he allowed eight runs over six innings. His 1.51 WHIP makes you cringe. Aramis Ramirez hit a three-run homer in his return from the DL. Matt Carpenter went 5-5 with a walk, two runs, and two RBI. He’s now batting .307 with a .395 OBP. Jimmy Rollins went 0-5 and struck out four times, earning himself the dubious Golden Sombrero. Adrian Beltre hit two homers and drove in five as a result of his longballs. Chris Davis hit his eighth homer of the season, which happened to be his first one in his last nine games. Starlin Castro went 3-4 with three RBI. Miguel Montero went 3-6 with a homer and six RBI while fellow teammate Paul Goldschmidt went 3-5 with three runs and four RBI.
Thanks to FanGraphs, BrooksBaseball, and Yahoo for the statistical information. Be sure to comment below if you have any remarks or questions. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions you may have.