2016 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 20, 2016

Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday night’s ten-game slate. We’ve also added a few quick tutorials for you to check out from our partners at RotoQL to help guide your research for today’s games. To learn more about RotoQL or to take a look at the packages they have to offer, please follow this link – it will truly help you become a better daily fantasy baseball player.

The weather outlook isn’t as bad today as it was yesterday, but be sure to check your sources for weather updates prior to lineup locks to make sure all of your players will get some play. Many times you can follow each team’s Twitter feed, but I think Kevin Roth really does a fine job and think you could give him a follow if you don’t already.

PITCHING PERSPECTIVE

For the purpose of this exercise we’ll be focusing on Wednesday’s evening 11-game slate. WIth just three arms above the $9,000 threshold on DraftKings, this feels like a good opportunity to look for value on the mound and load up on your bats. However, cash games could get tricky since there doesn’t appear to be the “ace” we feel comfortable with slotting in our SP1 slot.

Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants play host to Zack Greinke and the Arizona Diamondbacks — a contest that features the two most expensive pitchers on tonight’s slate as well as the lowest expected run total (6.5), according the Vegas. Bumgarner has scattered eight earned runs over his first three starts with a 21:7 K:BB — not exactly the MadBum we’re accustomed to seeing, or the pitcher we’d expect be the highest priced pitcher on the slate ($11,400) — but we’ll treat him as we normally would. Bumgarner faces a Diamondbacks team that strikes out more than 21% of the time against left-handed pitching, but also own a .319 wOBA against southpaws since the start of the 2015. Despite the early struggles, he’s still recorded more than a handful of whiffs in each of his three starts, which obviously helps his cause on DK. Consider MadBum in both cash and tournaments.

Greinke’s start to the season worries me more than MadBum’s does. He’s allowed 13 earned in just over 17 innings on the bump with a 15:5 K:BB rate. Tonight he faces a Giants’ team that owns the league’s fifth-highest wOBA (.323) and fourth lowest strikeout rate (18.5%) against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season. He is not a cash option for me tonight, but his upside and price make him a fine tournament play considering the park and run total.

Texas and Cole Hamels come in as a strong -150 favorite against the Astros at home tonight. This game has an expected run total of 8.5 with the Astros expected to account for just 3.5 of them, according to our friends at RotoQL. The Astros do have the league’s fifth highest wOBA against left-handed pitchers since the start of ‘15, but also have the ability to swing-and-miss a ton — posting  the 13th-highest strikeout rate against southpaws at 21.9%. Reasonable price + heavy favorite + strikeout potential lead me to believe Hamels is decent cash game option, but I’ll likely have more shares in tournaments considering the high run total.

The Pirates face southpaw Drew Pomeranz in San Diego. They own just a .302 wOBA and a 92 wRC+ along with a 22.3% K% against lefties since the start of last season. The run line currently sits at 7.5, with Pittsburgh expected to account for just three of those runs. The wind is blowing in at Petco. I really like Pomeranz as a SP2 in cash games as well as a tournament option on tonight’s slate. I’ll have a ton of DrewPom across the board.

Quick Hits: Chris Archer has a fantastic price point and should be considered in both cash and tournaments. The projection tool at RotoQL really likes Wei-Yen Chen, Jimmy Nelson and Joe Ross, all of whom can be looked at as a SP2 in cash and GPPs. The Phillies are dead last in the league in terms of wOBA and wRC+ against opposing right-handed pitchers. That makes our buddy Bartolo Colon — a -135 favorite according to Vegas — a tournament option at just $5,500.

STACK OPTIONS

All lineups have the ability to go off on any night. Well, maybe not against Kershaw, but there’s not Kershaw tonight so we don’t have to worry about that. For the sake of stacks, I’ll be looking at a couple of smaller cash stack along with some bigger tournament stacks.

Mets – An implied run total of 4.75 with the wind blowing straight out of Citizen’s Bank Park wants me to load up on the Mets’ left-handed bats against right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. This is more of simply having the platoon advantage rather than taking advantage of the pitcher’s splits, since he’s relatively neutral. Curtis Granderson ($4,200), Michael Conforto ($3,400), Lucas Duda ($4,100), Neil Walker ($3,800) and Yoenis Cespedes ($4,500) are all in play. I really like each of these bats as a “plus one” along with your other stacks as well. Cespedes owns a .329 ISO against RHP since the start of ‘15, so he’s on my homer list for the day.

Yankees/Athletics – Wind is blowing in from right field at the time of the writing, making that short porch a bit further of a reach for lefties. But, a run total of eight tells us runs will be scored. The Yankees can be run out in both cash or tournaments, while left-handers Vogt/Coghlan or switch hitting outfielders Burns/Crisp make for a contrarian type play on Wednesday. Each of those guys are fine plus ones in tournaments as well depending on your lineup construction.  

Blue Jays/Orioles – Sluggers with high totals. I prefer the Orioles to the Blue Jays in tournaments, but all bats are in play. Loading up on Jays in cash is okay.

Rangers/Astros – See above. All bats in play.

Dodgers – We thought this was going to be the play last evening in Atlanta before Julio Teheran was scratched. Teheran surrendered a wOBA of .351 to left-handed hitters compared to a .259 wOBA to right-handers. All of the Dodger lefties are in play: Utley, Seager, Gonzalez, Grandal, Pederson and company can be had in both cash or tournaments.

Brewers – Tournament play only. Right-handers Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Jonathan LuCroy and Chris Carter are in play.

PLAYER RANKINGS

DRAFTKINGS

CATCHER

  1. Yasmani Grandal – $3,200
  2. Brian McCann – $3,800
  3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $3,300
  4. Bret Nicholas – $2,000

FIRST BASE

  1. Lucas Duda – $4,100
  2. Miguel Cabrera – $4,100
  3. Chris Davis – $4,800
  4. Mitch Moreland – $3,900
  5. David Ortiz – $4,600
  6. Wil Myers – $4,400
  7. Ryan Howard – $3,900 – BvP Special

SECOND BASE

  1. Jose Altuve – $4,700
  2. Neil Walker – $3,800
  3. Logan Forsythe – $3,200
  4. Chase Utley – $3,400
  5. Joe Panik – $3,600

THIRD BASE

  1. Manny Machado – $4,900
  2. Mike Moustakas – $3,600
  3. Adrian Beltre – $4,200
  4. Travis Shaw – $3.000

SHORTSTOP

  1. Corey Seager – $4,000
  2. Carlos Correa – $4,500
  3. Brad Miller – $3,200
  4. Jonathan Villar – $3,000

OUTFIELD

  1. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,500
  2. George Springer – $4,200
  3. Michael Conforto – $3,400
  4. Ryan Braun – $4,600
  5. Curtis Granderson – $4,200
  6. Michael Saunders/Joc Pederson – $3,600
  7. Desmond Jennings – $3,200
  8. Matt Kemp – $4,600
  9. Melvin Upton – $3,500
  10. Nomar Mazara – $3,200
  11. Bryce Harper – $5,000

STARTING PITCHER

  1. Madison Bumgarner – $11,400
  2. Drew Pomeranz – $6,700
  3. Chris Archer – $8,500
  4. Bartolo Colon – $5,500
  5. Zack Greinke – $10,300
  6. Cole Hamels – $9,400
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