2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: Kevin Durant Injury Report
The NBA and Oklahoma City Thunder alike will be without the services of one the brightest stars in the game for at least the next 6-8 weeks after unfortunate news broke yesterday that reigning MVP Kevin Durant suffered a Jones fracture in his right foot. The aforementioned timetable should be considered a best-case scenario though and while reading the tea leaves would suggest Durant requiring surgery for the injury, no official decision has been made by the Thunder as of this writing.
This is obviously a crushing blow to fantasy owners who were blessed cursed by receiving the first overall pick in drafts which have already been conducted as the Durantula was the undisputed number one pick in fantasy basketball before this unsettling news. Durant has led the NBA in scoring in four of the last five seasons and he went absolutely bonkers last year as he put up mind-boggling averages of 32 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks, 2.4 3PM on 39.1% shooting, 87.3 percent FT%, and a 50.3 percent FG%.
Just to give you an idea of how durable Durant has been over the last five years, he has played in 388/394 games (98.5 percent). For those wondering, there are 16 less games played than a normal five-year period in NBA (82 x 5 = 410) because of the lockout shortened 2011-2012 season which consisted of 66 games. This just goes to show you that no matter how durable a given player may be based on his track record, injuries can strike at any time.
This news obviously brings major implications along with it and with the NBA season still a couple weeks away, that means there is plenty of time for fantasy basketball drafts. Let’s take a look at how his draft position will be impacted. Depending on if your league has an IR spot or not, you could still make a case that Durant could be selected with the first pick in H2H leagues. It would require some serious guts to take him first though and the advised course of action would be to take Durant as a surefire top-6 pick pick in H2H formats. The simple reason being is that H2H formats offer playoffs and obviously Durant is the biggest difference-maker in the game come that time.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis should definitely be selected ahead of Durant in H2H leagues without an IR spot, but other than those players I wouldn’t have any qualms taking Durant before the likes of players like James Harden, Stephen Curry, and the player who stands to benefit the most from this injury, Russell Westbrook. It all depends on personal preference. It’s a whole different story if you’re in a Roto league though. In my opinion, there is just too much risk involved to spend a first-round pick on Durant in Roto formats right now because foot injuries can be easily aggravated and the 6-8 week timetable may be wishful thinking at this point. With that being said, I wouldn’t completely dismiss the idea of picking Durant after the following ten players, so if you have the 11th or 12th pick don’t rule it out.
Here is how I would rank the first round of a 12-team 9-cat Roto league: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, John Wall, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Love, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka.
As alluded to earlier, Westbrook is the biggest beneficiary of Durant’s lengthy absence as he will be the number one option on offense for the Thunder until he returns. Even playing alongside the MVP last year, Westbrook still managed to lead the NBA with a 33.3 usage rate. With Durant off the floor, Westbrook’s usage skyrocketed to an astronomical 44.9 rate. For those unfamiliar with the term usage rate, it’s the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes which can be calculated by {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (AST x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace).
Westbrook will have a huge opportunity to capitalize while the Slim Reaper is sidelined for the next few months and is a worthy top-five selection in both 8-cat and 9-cat leagues. Westbrook will have more value in 8-cat formats since turnovers isn’t a category and without Durant he’s a real threat to average over four turnovers a game. Obviously that’s not good but we’re only nitpicking at this stage. Here are my projections for Westbrook until Durant can make it back into the Thunder lineup. 24.3 points, 8 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 4.2 turnovers, 1.4 3PM, 43 percent FG%, 82 percent FT%.
Not trying to be a Debbie Downer here but one must not forget that Westbrook has undergone three knee surgeries and brings a lot or risk to the table himself in that regard. If you can get 75+ games out of Westbrook who always plays at breakneck speed, consider yourself fortunate. Even so, Westbrook remains a no-brainer first-round selection in all formats.
Ibaka will also be asked to pick up some of the scoring slack for the Thunder, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could average 16-17 points a game after averaging 15.1 points in the 2013-2014 season. More scoring should mean more trips to the line for the career 78.4 percent free throw shooter as that will be a boon to owners as most bigs don’t provide a superb free throw percentage like Ibaka. On the flip side, more shots may mean a slight decrease in efficiency for the Congo native but considering his career-low in field goal percentage is 53.5 percent, there’s not much to fret about. Add in his customary three blocks and close to nine boards a game and you have yourself a worthy late-first or early-second round pick.
After a mini-breakout season last year, Reggie Jackson also will get a chance at an increased role over the first month or two. Jackson averaged 28.5 minutes a game last year and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him settle into the 30-32 MPG threshold. He may not start, but even as a sixth man he will get more than enough minutes to supply reliable fantasy value. As a starter last year, R-Jax averaged 14.1 points, 5.1 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 1.1 three-pointers a game. Those aren’t groundbreaking numbers by any means but there is plenty of value to be had. According to FantasyPros basketball rankings, Jackson currently sports a 88.9 ADP which means he’s usually being selected around the mid-seventh round of a 12-team league. He could easily wind up being a top-75 player and should be considered in the 70-100 range.
Sharpshooter Anthony Morrow is likely to get more run and should see between 20-25 minutes a game as the designated gunner off the bench. If the situation shakes out just right, he can provide 10-12 points with 1.5 threes a game and some excellent free throw shooting to boot as his career average is 88 percent. Just don’t expect him to help out much in the other areas.
Perry Jones or Andre Roberson are the likely options to fill the huge void left at the starting small forward spot. If you asked me who I think will start, I tend to think Roberson will get the call due to his superior defense compared to Jones. Jones is recovering from offseason knee surgery and the Thunder will likely try to be cautious with him as you never want to push a player too hard coming off a knee injury. Jones definitely offers more offensive upside as he put up respectable averages of 12.3 points, 2.3 three-pointers, and 1 block a game at the Summer League. While neither of these players are worth selecting in standard 12-team formats, you could do worse than spending a late-round pick on them in 14- or 16-team leagues.
Thanks for reading and be sure to comment below with any questions, remarks, or corrections concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy