Happy Super Bowl Sunday! Thankfully, the NBA is smart enough to know that nobody would tune into an NBA game over the Super Bowl, so there is just a small day slate for us today. There are three games beginning at 1:00pm EST, and one last game that starts at 2:00pm EST. Today I will be breaking this slate down and providing you with my top plays, cheap value options, positional rankings and more, to help you construct winning DFS lineups. What a great day, that we can win some DFS money in the afternoon and celebrate the Super Bowl at night. Let’s break this baby down, starting with a look at the Vegas numbers for today’s games and some thoughts based on those projected numbers.

Vegas lines and totals

Sacramento (+?) @ Boston — projected Vegas total of ???
Denver (?) @ New York — ???
Atlanta (-2.5) @ Orlando — 201.5
LA Clippers (+1) @ Miami — 196

As I am writing this, we’re still awaiting the numbers for two of the four games. I will update those and this analysis once those come in. I expect both the Kings/Celtics and Nuggets/Knicks games to have the highest projected totals on the slate. Now let’s get to the player picks and analysis.

POINT GUARD

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Isaiah Thomas – I’m off of Chris Paul today, because I feel you can get the same output from Isaiah at a much lower cost. The Kings are a charity that raises an unimaginable fortune of fantasy points for their opponents, especially at the point guard spot. Thomas is sure to see big minutes as usual, and with his offensive arsenal and usage rate, he should have no issues hitting 40+ fantasy points (FPs).

Jeff Teague – After going through a fairly lengthy slump which Teague blamed on a bothersome ankle injury, but he’s looked much more like his normal self the past two weeks. While I don’t project Jeff to have a big time showing today in Orlando, there’s only so many options and most of them are just average all things considered today. So, with Teague needing just 28 FPs to hit value, I think he’s a solid play that doesn’t hurt your DFS wallet, so that you have more to spend up elsewhere.

Cheap risk option: I don’t like any of the super cheap options today, so the cheapest I would think about going is Jose Calderon, who is coming off a really nice game and would again benefit if Carmelo Anthony were to miss another game. I will consider him as a GPP money saver, but more than likely I will pay a few hundred more for Marcus Smart.

SHOOTING GUARD

Evan Turner – How do you not like Turner on this small slate at this lower-mid-level price? Evan has put up 30+ FPs in six of the last seven games, including an average of 39 over the last three. As I said before, the Kings give out stats like mall Santas gives out candy canes, and with Rudy Gay doubtful, their wings will be in even more trouble defensively than normal, Turner will exploit this and go for 30+ FPs once again.

Victor Oladipo – Really torn between Dwyane Wade and Oladipo as my next shooting guard option tonight, neither is over-priced nor does either have a great matchup. I have just really liked the way Vic has molded his game a bit to improve his scoring output, by getting to the foul line. He’s inserting a little bit of that James Harden, look for contact style, and it’s really helped. Since their prices are similar, Wade is probably the safer cash-game choice, but I think Dipo has a tad more upside.

Cheap risk option: If you’re going to save here or need a super cheap play to try and bulk up a top heavy lineup, then go with Mario Hezonja. It looks like his new role is to play about 20 minutes off the Magic bench, and he’s been decent in the role, putting up 26, 13, 24 and 16 FPs over the last four.

SMALL FORWARD

Carmelo Anthony – Will keep this short and sweet since there’s a decent chance he doesn’t play, but if Carmelo gives it a go tonight, he’s definitely my top play at small forward. Going against his former team, and looking re-focused recently rebounding the ball so well and also being very passive averaging 11.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists in his last four games.

Jae Crowder – Yeah, yet another Celtic, but with just a four game slate, and only one team fortunate enough to play Sacramento, it’s okay to exploit it. Coming off one of his worst games of the season against LeBron and the Cavs, Crowder will look to get back to his breakout season form today. I have him projected at 29 FPs, which is only four less than I have Gallinari projected at, and he’s a grand cheaper.

Cheap risk option: Wesley Johnson is the cheap route to go at SF today. He’s earned a boost in his role, up to around 27 minutes a night, and he’s been playing well. Look for Wes to put up 20+ FPs for the third straight game thanks to his defensive stats and a couple of makes from behind the arc.

POWER FORWARD

DeMarcus Cousins – Start your lineup right here. Unless you’re making a suicide bomber GPP lineup praying for a miracle, you need Boogie in your lineups today. You know how beneficial the Kings defense is to guards, the Celtics are the same way for opposing big men, especially of this caliber. I have DMC projected at 60 FPs today. Yep.

Paul Millsap – This is a position that I plan on spending up at tonight, and I will likely be using both of these guys in a few lineups because of their plus matchups. Millsap got offered a big deal from the Magic this offseason, but decided to stay in Atlanta, and not only did he decline their offer, he’s also made sure to show them what they missed out on in their two matchups thus far this season. He’s averaged 43 FPs in those two previous matchups with Orlando.

Aaron Gordon – If you decide to go cheaper at PF today, I like Aaron Gordon to have a bounce back game after two below value games in a row against much tougher matchups. I like the way Gordon sizes up at the three and four against Atlanta, and project him at 27 FPs. He’s likely the cheapest I would personally go at PF on this slate.

Cheap risk option: I’m not looking to save this much with the available options mentioned above, but if you must, look at Amare Stoudemire to hit close to 20 FPs, and Jonas Jerebko if you need a total punt who should play around 15 minutes and has a shot at 15 FPs, but ehh.

CENTER

Nikola Jokic – I prefer to save a few bucks at center tonight rather than picking which of the beastly DeAndre Jordan or Hassan Whiteside will be the one to not get in foul trouble. I think Jokic is a solid mid-level priced cash-game play, although I honestly think he’ll be really highly owned and is a potential fade in GPP lineups. His price has jumped to where 30 FPs is his value line, and while I have him projected right at 30, I could see him landing just shy of that if the Knicks play Robin Lopez more than 25 minutes. The counter-punch to Jokic in GPPs is Al Horford, who is basically the same price and I have projected at the same number, but has upside.

Willie Cauley-Stein – This is a matchup that I believe Willie Trill can take advantage of. The rookie has seen games where he’s gotten abused a bit, but there’s no shame in a youngin’ being outperformed by veterans like the Gasol brothers. The Celtics have no such monsters in their frontcourt, so Willie should play around 30 minutes and put up a self-projected 25 FPs at a good price.

Cheap risk option: If you need a punt play at center, look to Jusuf Nurkic who is playing just about 15 minutes for Denver, and has had some struggles, but always has potential to hit his shots and end around 20 FPs, altho 15 FPs is likely closer to what he’ll actually do.

Cash game rankings:

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Isaiah Thomas
2) Jeff Teague
3) Rajon Rondo
4) Emmanuel Mudiay
5) Marcus Smart
6) Elfrid Payton
7) Jose Calderon

SG
1) Evan Turner
2) Dwyane Wade
3) Elfrid Payton
4) Arron Afflalo
5) Avery Bradley
6) Langston Galloway
7) Marco Belinelli
8) Mario Hezonja

SF
1) Carmelo Anthony (Questionable)
2) Jae Crowder
3) Danilo Gallinari
4) Wesley Johnson
5) Tobias Harris
6) Luol Deng

PF
1) DeMarcus Cousins
2) Paul Millsap
3) Aaron Gordon
4) Chris Bosh
5) Kristaps Porzingis
6) Kenneth Faried
7) Amir Johnson

C
1) Nikola Jokic
2) Al Horford (prefer over Jokic in GPPs)
3) Willie Cauley-Stein
4) Nikola Vucevic
5) DeAndre Jordan
6) Robin Lopez
7) Kelly Olynyk

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 1 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.

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