Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: January 29, 2016
Happy Friday! Yesterday was one brutal night for late news, huh? The primary reason that I play very little at FanDuel is that your whole lineup locks when the first game tips off, so last night when it was announced 15 minutes after games started that Kristaps Porzingis wouldn’t be playing, anyone who rostered him there was screwed. NBA news comes out too randomly and late to have such lock rules.
I had a frustrating night last night, because I had some really great plays in my lineups, but each one had at least one total dud, like Toney Douglas or Willie Cauley-Stein, that held me from cashing in much bigger. That’s just the way it goes sometimes though, it’s a cold blooded game we play.
Today we’ll be breaking down tonight’s nine-game slate. I will go over the Vegas numbers, list my top plays, top values and end it with my positional rankings that should help you build a winning lineup. Let’s get to work!
Vegas lines and totals
Orlando (+8) @ Boston — projected Vegas total of 204
Phoenix (+?) @ New York — ???
Cleveland (-4) @ Detroit — 204
Miami (?) @ Milwaukee — ???
Houston (+7.5) @ Oklahoma City — 222
Brooklyn (+9.5) @ Dallas — 199
Minnesota (+7.5) @ Utah — 194
Charlotte (+5.5) @ Portland — 205
LA Lakers (+?) @ LA Clippers — ???
I’ve seen heaven in the form of an NBA game, IT’S GLORIOUS! It’s going to be next to impossible to take your focus off of the Rockets/Thunder game with that dreamy 222 projected total. That game is going to be filled with fantasy goodness, and you’re definitely going to want to have plenty of players involved on your rosters. I’m not going to be using much from the Nets/Mavs nor Wolves/Jazz games, as they’re not expected to be that high of scoring and there’s so many better options, but I’m not totally fading them, just surely no stacks, not even mini-stacks. I’ll fill in the missing game lines when they show up. Now let’s get to the good stuff, the top plays and values for tonight’s slate.
POINT GUARD
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Russell Westbrook – Period, point blank. There’s not a better point guard on the slate when it comes to overall expected performance, game total and lack of position competition. Westbrook will anchor probably 90% of my teams even at the extremely high price tag. He’s averaging 54 fantasy points (FPs) over the last seven games, and he put up 55 FPs the last time they played Houston.
Marcus Smart – There are plenty of solid plays at the point tonight, but more than likely, if I go away from Westbrook, I will be looking to save at this spot. Smart would be one of my top lower mid-tier priced options. He’s playing over 30 minutes and even though he’s not a reliable shooter, he more than makes up for that with his ability to fill up the stat sheet elsewhere, especially with steals. I would be totally fine getting around 25-30 from Marcus tonight at this price and bulking up my roster elsewhere.
Cheap risk option: If Jose Calderon is forced to miss another game due to his groin injury, rookie Jerian Grant steps up as a really nice near minimum priced value. Last night Grant came off the bench playing 24 minutes and putting up a solid 13 points, four rebounds, six assists and two steals for 30 FPs. Tonight against a really poor guard defending team in Phoenix, I would expect similar if Jose is out of the picture. If Calderon plays, take a look at a full on punt play of D.J. Augustin who will be getting all of the backup PG minutes (probably 15 minutes) in place of the injured Cameron Payne. DJA could manage you 15 FPs with a tad bit of upside if he does indeed get that kind of PT.
SHOOTING GUARD
James Harden – The Beard loves playing against the team that decided he wasn’t worth paying big time money and let him walk away to Houston, and every chance he gets, he makes sure they all know how big of a mistake that was. In a game expected to be this high scoring, you want the top scorers, and this is one of the prime three in this game. Harden put up 59 FPs against OKC earlier in the year, and now in front of the OKC crowd he will try to top that last performance even. The Thunder being without defensive SG Roberson means Harden should have it even easier on the offensive side.
Archie Goodwin – The temporary legend is back in play again tonight, and he’s still at a price that I am not shying away. The Suns should be able to stay in this game with the Knicks, so Archie should see premium minutes again tonight, and a much less worrisome defense this time out than the last game against the Cavs. Look for 30+ FPs from the young fill-in point man.
Cheap risk option: Dion Waiters should get another start tonight, and anytime you have a player going up against Harden, that’s a plus for their offense. Waiters and Harden will likely help each other to above value fantasy nights, and Dion has been playing around 35 minutes the last four games, so he’ll have plenty of chances in this high scoring affair. If Carmelo Anthony sits this one out and/or Jose Calderon, Langston Galloway is in position to finish well above value for the third straight game.
SMALL FORWARD
Kevin Durant – I know, you get it, this game is going to be huge and you want the top players, but I can’t not continue to pound this into your craniums enough. Durant is probably third on my overall list behind Westbrook and Harden, but he’s still very much in play and I believe he’ll hit the 50+ FP stage again.
Nicolas Batum – Revenge game!! Batum was traded away from Portland this past off-season and he will be more than pleased to show out in front of his former home crowd. Batum plays mostly at SG, and he’ll have a huge advantage over the much smaller McCollum when he’s placed there. It’s been awhile since Nicolas has shown up big, so he may be more of a GPP play than cash, but I still had to mention him due to the revenge factor.
Chandler Parsons – Well, the hot streak hasn’t cooled down yet, and tonight Parsons has another good matchup against Joe Johnson and the Nets. With the way Chandler has had that shot going the past couple weeks, look for him to go for 35+ FPs for the sixth straight game.
Cheap risk option: Wesley Johnson is finally getting more run, especially down the stretch for the Clippers when his defensive abilities are really needed. In his last four games Wes has put up 29, 15, 20 and 28 FPs, so he’s quietly been a pretty good punt option. Plus, he’s going against the team he was on last season, this whole “revenge” thing has become a trend, huh?
POWER FORWARD
Serge Ibaka – You have to save a bit in places if you want to roster a couple studs, and Ibaka’s prices has really dropped lately due to his inconsistent performances. He’s not really a safe play anymore, but he gets up for the bigger games it seems, and the last time they played Houston, he was definitely fired up. Serge is a big mismatch for the Houston power forwards, and this is a game he should play minutes in the mid-to-high 30s, so I expect 30+ FP production.
Markieff Morris – Another money saver here in Kieff, who produced over value in the last game while seeing his playing time jump to 26 minutes. He should see 25-30 minutes again tonight and net you around 25 FPs at a good price, and he actually has upside due to his matchup against the Knicks who haven’t done well against opposing PFs.
Cheap risk option: I hate to say it but I kinda like the outlook for Josh Smith tonight against the Thunder. Smoove is the epitome of a “risk” option, but he’s playing 25+ minutes now that he’s back with the Rockets, and even on nights that his shot is off, he can hit above value at this price with his boards, blocks and steals.
CENTER
DeAndre Jordan – He’s going up against Roy Hibbert and Brandon Bass. Do you really need to know any more? The only concern at all here is if this game gets out of hand too early, but the Lakers should be able to keep it respectable enough where DJ will play over 30 minutes and that should net him close to 40 FPs with tons of dunks, boards and swats.
Rudy Gobert – Rudy is looking like his old self again lately after missing a big chunk of time due to an injury, and tonight he gets to square off with beastly rookie, Karl-Anthony Towns. While Towns has been great, opposing centers have still put up enough FPs to have them in the bottom-third in the league. Gobert will definitely load up on boards and get a few blocks as usual as well, on his way to a 30+ FP night.
Gorgui Dieng – If you need to save even more at the center spot, Gorgui Dieng is likely to draw another start with Kevin Garnett listed as doubtful tonight. Dieng has put up great numbers the past two games when he’s played 26 and 27 minutes and in those put up 26 and 37 FPs despite playing against teams who have done well versus bigs. Tonight will be another tough matchup, but at this price, he’s got an excellent shot at beating value due to his friendly price point.
Cheap risk option: Meyers Leonard stays cheap but keeps putting up solid DFS numbers. In the last five games Meyers has put up FP totals of 25, 12, 27, 27 and 23. He shouldn’t have any issues shooting his way to 20+ FPs again tonight against the weak defending bigs of Charlotte.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Damian Lillard
3) Marcus Smart
4) Ricky Rubio
5) Chris Paul
6) Kyrie Irving
7) Patrick Beverley
SG
1) James Harden
2) Archie Goodwin
3) Dwyane Wade
4) C.J. McCollum
5) Dion Waiters
6) Rodney Hood
7) Victor Oladipo
SF
1) Kevin Durant
2) Chandler Parsons
3) Carmelo Anthony (if he plays)
4) Nicolas Batum
5) Wesley Johnson
6) LeBron James
7) Trevor Ariza
PF
1) Serge Ibaka
2) Josh Smith
3) Kevin Love
4) Markieff Morris
5) Dirk Nowitzki
6) Thaddeus Young
7) Ersan Ilyasova
C
1) DeAndre Jordan
2) Gorgui Dieng
3) Rudy Gobert
4) Nikola Vucevic
5) Meyers Leonard
6) Brook Lopez
7) Alex Len
8) Spencer Hawes
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7:30 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.
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