2011 Fantasy Baseball Great Debate: Mark Teixeira vs. Adrian Gonzalez
His 2010 BABIP was 35 points lower than his career total, and his HR/FB rate was down 3% from his career average. So, Tex’s batting average should rebound to at least north of .280 (if not higher), and his homers should top the 35 mark once again. Moreover, more hits means more chances to drive in runs and more chances to be driven in. All that said to point out that the 2011 version of Teixeira is more likely to be closer to the 2008/2009 Tex than the 2010 Tex. That means .280+, with 35 HR, 100+ R, and 115+ RBI is a pretty safe expectation for the Yankee.
There is no question that moving away from Petco Park and a pathetic Padres lineup will be good for Adrian Gonzalez, but will it be enough for Gonzo to put out Teixeira-like production? The last four seasons Gonzalez has averaged 34 HR, 95 R, 105 RBI and he topped a .285 batting average only once. The new lineup could certainly help Gonzalez catch Teixeira in the counting categories (R and RBI) and Fenway could make 40 homers approachable, but last year’s .298 average was likely an aberration. One more nit-picky thing to note with Gonzalez is that his walk rate (and OBP) will likely decrease with Gonzalez no longer being the only viable major league hitter in his lineup. As a result, his runs total might not jump as much as you might think.
Ultimately, both guys are no doubt top 20 hitters, and you really cannot go wrong with either one of them. In fact, I would not be surprised Tex and Gonzo were almost identical players in 2011. If push came to shove, I would just rather have the guy who I can be more certain about what I am going to get out of him. Maybe next year Gonzalez will be the pick after we see exactly how his new surroundings are going to affect his numbers.
Contributed by Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Brett Talley, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.
Comparing their careers side-by-side these two have been a mirror image. Career-wise these two players are within ten points of each other in Avg. and OBP. Over the last three years they have the exact same .Avg and OBP. Their career 162 game average for Homeruns and Doubles are each only five apart. However, the biggest separation between the two stars has been the Homerun Death Valley that is Petco Park.
For the last five years, Petco has been the worst park to hit the longball in. This has shown in Adrian’s stats. His career average away from Petco Park is .303 and his OBP away is .376 OBP. Upon adjusting his away numbers to incorporate a full season away from Petco, Adrian would put together a season with the following stat-line: 42 doubles, 40 homeruns, 116 RBIs, .303 .Avg, .376 OBP., assuming that he would play all 162 games. Those numbers would top Teixeira’s 162 game average of the last three years in every category except OBP. Hitting in the stacked Boston lineup should help his numbers even further. He will have more protection and more runners on base, creating more opportunities for Runs and RBI production.
Teixeira’s ceiling has already been reached. He already hits in a strong Yankee lineup at the homer-friendliest park in the majors. There is no room for growth for Tex. He is two years older than Adrian and might be showing some wear. He’s coming off a year where he finished with his lowest batting average ever (30 points away from his career average), and excluding his rookie year, it was his second-lowest total for RBI and third-lowest for homeruns. If you choose him can you afford to wait out another abysmally slow start like last year when he hit .230 through the first three months? Chances are no. This could lead to desperation and trading him with a low-value, leaving you as a fantasy owner with little to show for a squandered high draft pick. When you have to make a choice this spring between Adrian and Tex, make it A-Gon, he’s the new monster in Fenway.
Contributed by Fantasy Baseball Analyst, James Bryce, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com.The Author
