2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 17: Dick Jokes Galore & Top 50 Pitcher Rankings
Well, my buddy Corey recently pointed out that no such euphemism has been made in several weeks. What Corey was really trying to say by pointing that out was, “Quit taking yourself seriously. Make more dick jokes.”
Ask and ye shall receive.
This week’s profiled pitchers will be compared to different condoms. Screw euphemisms, this week we’re using metaphors.
Vance Worley (Philadelphia Phillies, 90% owned) is like the half full box of Lifestyles in the bottom drawer of my parent’s bathroom that has been untouched since I discovered it in 1999. What I mean by that is that I’ve thought about using both that box of Lifestyles and Worley but have decided neither is worth the risk.
SIERA and xFIP
[1] say that Worley’s ERA should be about two runs higher than it is. His 1.19 WHIP must be sustained by an unsustainable .254 BABIP because his 3.75 BB/9 isn’t supporting that WHIP. And only two of his 65 fly balls allowed have left the yard. That won’t last. His strand rate is 80%. That won’t last either.I would honestly rather use one of those ancient Lifestyles than put Worley in my lineup for the rest of the year.
AJ Burnett (New York Yankees, 72.6% owned) has a walk total that almost equals the number of condoms that Kramer got from Bob Sacamano. Well actually his walk total is closer to the half gross of condoms that Kramer offered Elaine, but it’s still high enough to lead the league.
Someone is going to have to explain to me why the guy who leads the league in walks is owned in almost three-quarters of ESPN leagues. Especially when his ERA is over 4.00. If you happen to be contributing to Burnett’s 72.6% ownership percentage, do yourself a favor and go out and add Bud Norris or Ryan Dempster.
Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers, 99.6% owned) is like those condoms with the desensitizing cream in them. In other words, Lewis will get the job done for you, but his overall numbers may not be entirely pleasurable.
After an extended rough start, Lewis seems to have righted the ship. With one earned run less against Oakland on 7/9, Lewis would have seven straight quality starts. He is 5-0 with a 9.25 K/9 and 0.90 WHIP over that span. All that good work has essentially brought Lewis back to the mean.
So, going forward all things should be essentially equal for Colbyashi. That means a 3.80-ish ERA with a decent-ish WHIP somewhere between 1.20 and 1.25 and a K/9 in the mid-eight range.
To get back to the metaphor, the high K/9 equals an orgasm, but the higher-than-average ERA equals the desensitizing cream. It’s a meeting of minds kind of situation, except a little different from the sexual exploration imagined with that phrase.
James McDonald (Pittsburgh Pirates, 4.1% owned) is like a Magnum. That big (strikeout) digit looks impressive, but isn’t much use without control.
McDonald is striking out over a batter per inning over the last 30 days (28.2 IP). However, his BB/9 is just over 3.00. Not that there is anything wrong with that,
[2] but his walk rate is likely to move back toward his 4.28 mark for the year.So, there are certainly things to like about McDonald, but just know he won’t always be as good as his big strikeout total looks.
Alright, let’s rank ‘em. Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.
The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 6
With a gun to my head, if I had to pick one starter to own for the next ten years, I’d take Kershaw.
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 2
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 3
5. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 5
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 11
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 7
9. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 10
11. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 13
12. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 12
13. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 8
I have a thing for Jered Weaver. Unlike my boyfriend, Matt Garza, or my mistress, Chris Narveson, you might not know about my Weaver-love because there is little point in professing your man-love for a guy who is squarely in the Cy Young discussion.
I stated my belief in him when others doubted his breakout last year. In my preseason column where I went on record with those that I loved and those I wasn’t touching, I said Weaver would again be a top ten pitcher this year. And I was right. But he’s doing it with more luck than he is skill.
That isn’t to say he’s not extremely skilled, but there’s definitely some regression coming. His ERA-SIERA deferential is a negative is 1.64. His HR/FB rate is a simply unsustainable 2.5%. His strand rate is about 6% higher than what we’ve come to expect from Weaver. His .249 BABIP might not seem so lucky if his K/9 was the same as last year, but it’s down almost two strikeouts per nine, so there’s regression coming there too.
I still love Jered Weaver, but it’s time for things to even out a little. Sell while you can.
14. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 14
15. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 15
16. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week: 16
17. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week: 20
18. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 17
19. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |97.6% owned |Last week: 21
20. Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week: 18
21. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 22
22. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.2% owned | Last week: 19
23. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 23
24. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 25
Even though he’s 100% owned, I still feel like Kennedy has quietly been having an excellent year. 3.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, K/BB just over 3.00. Between Kennedy and Hudson, the D’Backs have an excellent 1-2 punch to build around.
25. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 96.2% owned | Last week: 31
26. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 24
27. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 97.9% owned | Last week: 26
28. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week: 33
29. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 27
30. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 81.9% owned | Last week: 30
31. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 32
32. Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | 71.6% owned | Last week: 40
33. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 48.4% owned | Last week: 36
34. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week: 29
35. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 85.0% owned | Last week: 34
36. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 28
37. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |85.5% owned | Last week: 35
38. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 14.3% owned | Last week: 47
39. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week: 38
40. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 66.5% owned | Last week: 39
41. Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado Rockies | 95.7% owned | Last week: 44
42. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 99.9% owned | Last week: 46
43. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 45
44. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 42.7% owned | Last week: 43
Dempster is making it more and more difficult to keep him in the top 50. His peripherals have been saying he’s due for some significant positive regression for some time now, but it’s yet to happen.
I watched him pitch at Milwaukee tonight and was ready to boot him from the top 50 after three earned in the first. But he recovered with five scoreless after that and ended up with a quality start.
My patience has certainly been tested, but for now I’m sticking with the belief that an xFIP and SIERA over a run and a half lower than his ERA, as well as a .331 BABIP and 67.3% strand rate, will bring good things soon.
45. Michael Pineda | Seattle Mariners | 95.7% owned | Last week: 41
46. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 98.7% owned | Last week: 37
47. Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 19.5% owned| Last week: 48
48. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 54.9% owned | Last week: 49
49. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers (for now) | 99.3% owned | Last week: NR
50. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 98.9% owned | Last week: NR
Out this week: Trevor Cahill, Jordan Zimmermann
All ownership percentages from ESPN.com
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas whose last twelve-pack of Trojan blues (two left) has lasted him almost a year at this point. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
[1] Which Matt Swartz has shown are clearly superior to FIP
[2]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ild8w0rHQU
(July 3, 2011 – Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images North America)
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