Fantasy Football

2012 Fantasy Baseball, AL-Only: Time to target Danny Duffy, Drew Smyly

Picture

Garrett RIchards

         As the saying goes, pitching and defense wins championships. The same can certainly be said for fantasy. While having some aces anchor your staff is important, the difference makers are the low level guys who greatly out perform their draft position, especially in AL or NL only leagues. Here are some guys I would go out and try to acquire in AL Only leagues, who should outperform their value.
Hot Starts:

Danny Duffy (KC-SP):

Although he won’t be as cheap as the other guys who will be featured in this article, Duffy was not a Top 40 AL pitcher preseason. Drafted 41st amongst starting pitchers, Duffy has shown an excellent fastball, curveball, and changeup this season and has begun to work in a cutter, something that should let him produce even more groundballs. While Duffy’s start against Justin Verlander certainly caught the public’s attention, critics will claim the gun was juiced as it read that Duffy was sitting at 98 MPH. No one knows exactly what Duffy was throwing but he was throwing every bit as fast as Verlander on the same radar gun. 

The lefthander’s weakness is his control, as he has walked 3.55 hitters per 9 innings so far this season. The walks are not that brutal but the high pitch counts prevent him from working deeper into games. Duffy’s sophomore start is certainly more then promising with a K/9 over 10.50. I think he’ll end the year as a Top 40 mixed league pitcher and a top 20 AL pitcher so I’d be making plenty of offers on Duffy if it’s not too late.

Drew Smyly (Det-SP):

Many fantasy owners were disappointed to learn that Smyly beat out Jacob Turner for the Tigers’ fifth spot out of Spring Training, but if you added Smyly in a league, he has not disappointed. Although he will not maintain a 0.90 ERA or a 95.9 LOB%, Smyly has proven that he belongs in the bigs. Boasting a fastball that sits around 92MPH, Smyly works off of it and uses a slider and cutter to keep hitters off balance. 

There are a few worries with Smyly. First, since he lacks a true out pitch, he’ll have to rely on his defense, which we know is spotty at best and he won’t record a lot of strikeouts. Second, he’ll need to keep pitching well to maintain his spot in the rotation with Turner bound to be up sometime this year and Doug Fister returning from the DL. I’m not all-in on Smyly but he’s not a fluke and certainly worth a play in AL-Only leagues every time he gets the rock.

Just Waiting for the Call:

Garret Richards (LAA-SP):

With Jerome Williams being, well, Jerome Williams, Garret Richards will likely soon be in Anaheim. Richards has gotten off to a great start in AAA this season with a 2-0 record with a 2.14 ERA and a K/9 of 9 through 3 starts. Even more impressive is that fact that Richards has only walked 4 hitters in 21 innings. In his 7 big league starts, last year, Richards threw a fastball that averaged 95 MPH and posted an xFIP 1.3 runs lower then his ERA. His big frame and killer fastball will allow him to strikeout plenty of hitters. While his ERA may not be great, he’ll get plenty of chances for wins with the Angels.

Brad Peacock (Oak-SP):

Peacock came out of nowhere last year and has convinced scouts he will belong in the rotation instead of the bullpen. Peacock will benefit from the trade from Washington to Oakland, a rare occurrence for a pitcher dealt from the National League to the American League. While Peacock’s number last season were clearly impressive ( 11.77 K/9 and 1.87 FIP in AA), the most impressive part for scouts was that Peacock showed a third plus pitch, a changeup. Along with a curveball and a low nineties fastball, Peacock pounded the zone, only allowing 2.10 walks per nine. 

Although he is not the top pitcher in the Athletics system (Jarrod Parker claims that title)[1], he should have the most successful rookie season. The one worry would be that Peacock suffers a rookie problem similar to Danny Duffy where he tries to nibble and walks too many hitters. As we’ve seen this year, it’s a problem that one can overcome. Store Peacock on your bench now and reap the benefits in June.

[1] Jarrod Parker, acquired from the Arizona Diamonbacks this offseason, will reach the majors this season as well

By Matthew Schwimmer, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Read more of Matt's excellent fantasy insight over at RotoAnalysis.com

You can follow Roto Analysis on Twitter @RotoAnalysis or Matt on twitter @Sportstar6ms.


Previous post

2012 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire, Week 4: A Mound & Minors Edition, Including Perfect Phillip Humber

Next post

2012 Fantasy Baseball, Week 4 Two-Start Pitchers: Henderson Alvarez Gets The Nod