Fantasy Football

2012 Fantasy Baseball: Clayton Kershaw & The Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Rotation Preview

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Clayton Kershaw (credits below)

There is no question that Clayton Kershaw is very good.  The only question is where among the top ten starting pitchers he should be drafted.  The answer to that question comes in the form of another question:  Do you buy the drop from 4.79 walks per nine in 2009 to 3.57 per nine in 2010 all the way down to 2.08 per nine last year?

After Kershaw, the Dodgers have several guys who are options to be drafted in ten-team mixed leagues but none who will be drafted in almost all leagues (assuming 60 starters are drafted in those leagues).

The most draft-worthy of the LA pitchers not named Kershaw is Ted Lilly.  Once you get past the top 25 or so starters, the WHIPs start to get ugly.  Once you get past that 60th pitcher threshold, it’s hard to find a pitcher who isn’t a complete WHIP killer.  Only 13 pitchers with at least 120 innings who finished outside the top 60 in xFIP last year had a WHIP of 1.25 or less.  One of whom was Lilly (1.16).

He’s currently going 84th among starters on MockDraftCentral.com which is just insane.  It’s almost impossible to find a sub-1.20 WHIP past the midway point in a draft.  Lilly will get you that along with an ERA with only marginal risk of being above 4.00 and a K/9 likely above 7.00.  Lilly should be going closer to 48th than 84th.

On the complete opposite end of the WHIP spectrum is Chad Billingsley.  He posted an ugly 1.45 WHIP last year thanks to a BB/9 just over 4.00.  But there’s upside with Billingsley.  He’s young (26) and posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.03 K/9 in 2010.  He’s currently going 88th among pitchers on MDC, so he’d be a fine sleeper/spot starter selection in the last three rounds of your draft.

And then come a couple of deeper sleeper options currently going outside the top 100 starters on MDC.  Aaron Harang is the option with more name value and a higher level of prior success.  And he benefitted from a year in pitcher-friendly PETCO last year (3.64 ERA).  But his velocity has declined the last couple of years, and he isn’t pitching in PETCO this year.  So Harang is a sleeper option but probably not a sleeper.

On the other hand, Chris Capuano has some legitimate potential to be a surprising spot-start option.  His 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP from last year aren’t appealing, but his peripheral numbers were excellent.  He posted a 3.60 SIERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 3.00.  Only 29 other pitchers who threw at least 120 innings managed a SIERA of 3.60 or less combined with a strikeout-to-walk over 3.00 last year.  Not that Capuano is going to be a top 30 pitcher this year, but he is certainly worth a late round pick.

The Dodgers don’t exactly have any prospects knocking on the door of the rotation.  With Rubby de la Rosa undergoing Tommy John surgery last August, Nate Eovaldi is probably first in line to get a crack at the rotation if one of the current five hits the DL.  But Eovaldi hasn’t pitched an inning at AAA, and I’m always wary of young pitchers who haven’t spent any time at that level.  Their #6 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus is Chris Withrow.  Withrow is from my hometown of Odessa, Texas, so I’d love to see him make it to the big leagues.  But he too hasn’t seen AAA yet, and he has to work out some serious control issues before he’s ready for the show.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who can tell you firsthand that Chris Withrow’s wife is sneaky hot and was Withrow’s high school sweetheart.  You can tell him he’s sneaky ugly and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(September 3, 2011 – Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images North America) 


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