Fantasy Football

2012 Fantasy Baseball: Top fantasy hitting prospects by position for 2016

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Bryce Harper

This week I decided to dabble in premonition and attempt to predict who will be the top fantasy players by position in 2016 among current prospects.

Notes: The 20-80 Scale: In this article, I often reference the 20-80 scale, which is what scouts use to reference a player’s skills, 20 being the worst, 80 being the best, and 50 being average. When a player is 60, or ‘plus,’ it means he’s well above average. 70 would be a star level player, like Ryan Braun’s hitting. 80 would be the best at the position, generational sometimes, like Bryce Harper and Mike Stanton’s power, Ichiro’s hit tool circa 2006, Jeff Francour’s arm, etc. 30 and 40 are the versions of those, but bad. 20 would be Billy Butler’s speed. Now that you know the lingo, let’s get into the scouting.

Catcher: Travis D’Arnaud, Toronto Blue Jays

Travis D’Arnuad is the top catching prospect in all of baseball already and should be in the big leagues as soon as late 2012. By 2016, D’Arnaud will have established himself as one of the top offensive and overall catchers in major league baseball. Both D’Arnaud’s hit tool as well as his power tool project to be at least above average at the major league level with some scouts putting plus (60 grade) on both tools. The power especially should play in the future as D’Arnaud continues to make adjustments at the high levels of the minors and adds strength to his frame. I could see D’Arnaud producing a stat line around .290 with 25 home runs in 2016 and he would therefore be selected as one of the top catchers in fantasy.

1B: Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins

Yes, I know Sano is currently a third basemen after starting out last year as a shortstop but the Twins prospect is seemingly constantly growing and, to put it lightly, he was not a small kid to start out with. With Sano’s size it is going to be hard for him to man any position other then 1B by the time he makes the big leagues. The good news is that the bat is good enough that Sano will provide ample fantasy value from any position. Power is Sano’s true calling card garnering many 70s and 80s from scouts. Sano has the kind of power that makes you show up early to the stadium just to watch him take BP. If he converts his massive raw power into usable game power as he has began to do in rookie ball, Sano could hit 40 home runs annually. In 2016, Sano will be in his 2nd or 3rd season as an established big league player and should provide 40+ home runs with about a .265 average or so. That all depends on if he gets to the majors as the status of young hitters who are years away from the major leagues is increasingly fickle.

2B: Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

Billy Hamilton will be your 2016 major league baseball stolen base leader; I can all but guarantee that. The normal 20-80 scale does not apply to Hamilton as his speed breaks the scale. Hamilton stole 103 bases last year in 135 games and was successful at an 82 percent clip. This was all done while Hamilton was struggling from the plate. If he puts it all together at the plate Hamilton will be stealing 80 bases annually, from a middle infield position and therefore would be an elite fantasy player.

SS: Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers

Profar can do a little bit of everything. He’s an above-average hitter with bat speed and strong wrists and projects to hit 15-20 home runs annually. He has a fantastic approach and his understanding of the strike zone is mature. To top it all of he’s a tick above-average runner who will steal a fair amount of bases. Unlike with most hitting shortstops scouts have no concern about Profar being forced to move off of the position due to lack of defensive ability or size. By 2016, Profar will be a well-established major leaguer who will be a top 4 or 5 shortstop annually due to his power, speed and high contact abilities.

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3B: Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

Arenado is one of the hottest prospects on the planet after a dominant Arizona fall league campaign. The young Rockies’ third basemen possess a beautiful swing that will produce a very high contact rate as well as 20+ home runs annually. During his 2011 campaign Arenado accomplished an impressive feat: he had more extra-base hits (55) than strikeouts (53). Arenado will have a ton of fantasy value due to his great bat that will play up even more while hitting in Coors field. 

OF: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

This was the easiest no brainer on the entire list. Harper, the first overall pick in the 2010 draft, is a prodigious prospect, mostly due to his power. Harper is a beast offensively. He has the most violent swing in baseball which, when combined with his strength, gives him easy 80 raw power. Right now, Harper also has 55 (slightly above average) or better speed. But there is a major concern with scouts that as Harper gets older and stronger a lot of that speed will evaporate. By 2016, Harper should be challenging for MVPs annually and therefore will be a fantasy superstar.

OF: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Another no brainer, Trout is a player destined for fantasy superstardom. Trout is one of the best prospects in the game, and certainly one of the most exciting. He's an ultra-athletic burner with top-of-the-line speed that gives him the ability to steal bases. Trout will steal 45+ bases annually. He also has a fantastic batter’s eye that coupled with very good bat speed gives Trout’s hit tool at least a 70 grade. Not only that, but Trout has become a truly five tool player as he has developed some power as well. By the time he hits his prime (around 2016) Trout could be hitting 20 or more home runs annually. Yes, Mike Trout possesses fantasy tools that could put him in the early first round.

By Charles Kurz, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.

Read more of Charles' fantasy insight over at RotoAnalysis.com. Have a fantasy related question? You can follow the site on Twitter @RotoAnalysis or Charles on twitter @nolimits16423.


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