2012 Fantasy Baseball, Week 12 Sit ‘Em/Start ‘Em: Coors is Dexter’s Laboratory
Hitters To Start
Chris Davis |Baltimore Orioles| (74.5%) -Chris Davis has come to be known as one of the streakiest players in the game. His ownership numbers are like a stock chart, a roller-coaster of ups and downs. This week should turn out a positive for Davis. All 6 of his games are at home this week. While hitting at home Davis is hitting 48 points higher to the tune of .298 along with an OBP that's 63 points higher than his road OBP (.351 vs .288). His power is also strongly related to his home-turf advantage. His OPS at home is 300 points higher than on the road and 75% of Davis' 12 homeruns have been hit at Camden Yards this year.
Dexter Fowler |Colorado Rockies| (42%) – Typically the fresh, and thin for that matter, air at Coors Field rejuvenates the long-ball of the best sluggers in the game. I usually don't think of Fowler as a slugger, but his splits tell a different tale. Fortunately he can be had in more than half of the leagues and he stands to make huge leaps in this week's home series. At home this season Fowler is hitting at astonishing 115 points higher (.324 vs. .209) while his OBP is 147 points higher (.436 vs. .289). These all add up to an OPS that's 406 points higher at home than on the road (1.067 vs. .661). 7 of his 9 homeruns have come at Coors Field.
Hitters To Sit
Alfonso Soriano |Chicago Cubs| (98.5%) – The now-aged phenom has done his share of being a fantasy sleeper this year and has kept the Cubs in contention with the Padres for the worst team in baseball. This week Soriano plays all 6 games at home and faces left-handed pitching for all but 2 of those contests. This year against left-handed pitching Soriano is hitting .200 and has a .279 OBP. He's hitting 90 points lower against left-handed pitching than against righties. Soriano is just 4 for 26 (.154) against the three starting Mets pitchers that he'll face in his first series of the week. Even worse, Soriano is 6 for 37 (.162) against the Astros' starters that he'll be facing.
Kendrys Morales |Los Angeles Angels| (53.4%) – The player with the missing letter has been ice-cold of late and suffers from the same kind of homesickness that Chris Davis does. This week Morales plays every game on the road. On the road Morales is hitting a paltry .192 and has a .264 OBP. These marks are 125 and 87 points lower than his home stats respectively. This week Morales and the Angels will face the Orioles and the Blue Jays. In 9 games at the Rogers Centre Morales is hitting .206 with a .270 OBP.
Two-Start Pitchers to Start
Felix Doubront |Boston Red Sox| (67.1%) – Doubront can be a cheap source of striekouts and wins while having the potential to improve his ERA and yours as well. This week he faces the Blue Jays at home and then the Mariners on the road. In two previous starts this year against the Blue Jays Doubront has an ERA of 3.18 in 11.1 innings while striking out 13 batters. Doubront's second start of the week shouldn't give him too much of a fight. He has the upside of facing the Mariners at Safeco Field. In away games this year, Doubront has an ERA of 3.19 and a win-loss record of 5-1.
Huroki Kuroda |New York Yankees| (84.1%) – If you have been paying attention, you'd already know that Kuroda has been fairly strong over the last month and is still available in a good amount of leagues. He has the fortune of making both of his starts at home this weekw here he has a 3.15 ERA and a 4-3 win-loss record. Over the last 30 days Kuroda has pitched 35 innings with a 2.06 ERa and WHIP of 1.00. He has also recorded 4 quality starts, 3 of those for wins.
Two-Start Pitchers to Sit
Tommy Milone |Oakland A's| (13.1%) – Milone's recent complete-game shutout of the Dodgers might have owners reeling him in off waivers, but first checkout his splits. Both of Milone's starts this week will come on the road, one in Seattle, the other in Texas. On the road this year Milone has been awful. He has a 7.42 ERA on the road, a vast difference from his home ERA of 0.99. He has already given up 12 homeruns on the road and only 1 at home. Also, Seattle and Texas have both blasted Milone this year. They combined for 8 runs over 13 innings pitched. Keep Milone in the back of yoru mind when he makes his home starts.
Wandy Rodriguez |Houston Astros| (97.6%) – This week Rodriguez faces two of baseball's worst teams and no, he's not throwing batting practice to his team. He'll face the anemic Padre offense that is hitting a combined .207 in 29 at-bats against him. The Cubs can't improve much on the Padres' low-set bar. In 160 at-bats against Rodriguez the Cubs are hitting .256. Their star hitters Castro and Soriano are a combined 7 for 53 (.132). But despite the good match ups, you might want to sit Wandy. His SIERA and xFIP are around 4.00 which indicates that his 3.29 ERA may be a bit of a mirage. And his strikeout rate (7.54career K/9) has disappeared (5.74 K/9 this year).
Chris Davis |Baltimore Orioles| (74.5%) -Chris Davis has come to be known as one of the streakiest players in the game. His ownership numbers are like a stock chart, a roller-coaster of ups and downs. This week should turn out a positive for Davis. All 6 of his games are at home this week. While hitting at home Davis is hitting 48 points higher to the tune of .298 along with an OBP that's 63 points higher than his road OBP (.351 vs .288). His power is also strongly related to his home-turf advantage. His OPS at home is 300 points higher than on the road and 75% of Davis' 12 homeruns have been hit at Camden Yards this year.
Dexter Fowler |Colorado Rockies| (42%) – Typically the fresh, and thin for that matter, air at Coors Field rejuvenates the long-ball of the best sluggers in the game. I usually don't think of Fowler as a slugger, but his splits tell a different tale. Fortunately he can be had in more than half of the leagues and he stands to make huge leaps in this week's home series. At home this season Fowler is hitting at astonishing 115 points higher (.324 vs. .209) while his OBP is 147 points higher (.436 vs. .289). These all add up to an OPS that's 406 points higher at home than on the road (1.067 vs. .661). 7 of his 9 homeruns have come at Coors Field.
Hitters To Sit
Alfonso Soriano |Chicago Cubs| (98.5%) – The now-aged phenom has done his share of being a fantasy sleeper this year and has kept the Cubs in contention with the Padres for the worst team in baseball. This week Soriano plays all 6 games at home and faces left-handed pitching for all but 2 of those contests. This year against left-handed pitching Soriano is hitting .200 and has a .279 OBP. He's hitting 90 points lower against left-handed pitching than against righties. Soriano is just 4 for 26 (.154) against the three starting Mets pitchers that he'll face in his first series of the week. Even worse, Soriano is 6 for 37 (.162) against the Astros' starters that he'll be facing.
Kendrys Morales |Los Angeles Angels| (53.4%) – The player with the missing letter has been ice-cold of late and suffers from the same kind of homesickness that Chris Davis does. This week Morales plays every game on the road. On the road Morales is hitting a paltry .192 and has a .264 OBP. These marks are 125 and 87 points lower than his home stats respectively. This week Morales and the Angels will face the Orioles and the Blue Jays. In 9 games at the Rogers Centre Morales is hitting .206 with a .270 OBP.
Two-Start Pitchers to Start
Felix Doubront |Boston Red Sox| (67.1%) – Doubront can be a cheap source of striekouts and wins while having the potential to improve his ERA and yours as well. This week he faces the Blue Jays at home and then the Mariners on the road. In two previous starts this year against the Blue Jays Doubront has an ERA of 3.18 in 11.1 innings while striking out 13 batters. Doubront's second start of the week shouldn't give him too much of a fight. He has the upside of facing the Mariners at Safeco Field. In away games this year, Doubront has an ERA of 3.19 and a win-loss record of 5-1.
Huroki Kuroda |New York Yankees| (84.1%) – If you have been paying attention, you'd already know that Kuroda has been fairly strong over the last month and is still available in a good amount of leagues. He has the fortune of making both of his starts at home this weekw here he has a 3.15 ERA and a 4-3 win-loss record. Over the last 30 days Kuroda has pitched 35 innings with a 2.06 ERa and WHIP of 1.00. He has also recorded 4 quality starts, 3 of those for wins.
Two-Start Pitchers to Sit
Tommy Milone |Oakland A's| (13.1%) – Milone's recent complete-game shutout of the Dodgers might have owners reeling him in off waivers, but first checkout his splits. Both of Milone's starts this week will come on the road, one in Seattle, the other in Texas. On the road this year Milone has been awful. He has a 7.42 ERA on the road, a vast difference from his home ERA of 0.99. He has already given up 12 homeruns on the road and only 1 at home. Also, Seattle and Texas have both blasted Milone this year. They combined for 8 runs over 13 innings pitched. Keep Milone in the back of yoru mind when he makes his home starts.
Wandy Rodriguez |Houston Astros| (97.6%) – This week Rodriguez faces two of baseball's worst teams and no, he's not throwing batting practice to his team. He'll face the anemic Padre offense that is hitting a combined .207 in 29 at-bats against him. The Cubs can't improve much on the Padres' low-set bar. In 160 at-bats against Rodriguez the Cubs are hitting .256. Their star hitters Castro and Soriano are a combined 7 for 53 (.132). But despite the good match ups, you might want to sit Wandy. His SIERA and xFIP are around 4.00 which indicates that his 3.29 ERA may be a bit of a mirage. And his strikeout rate (7.54career K/9) has disappeared (5.74 K/9 this year).
Written by James Bryce (@BoltLife4me) exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com
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(April 16, 2012 – Source: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)
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