Fantasy Football

2012 Fantasy Football: Opening Night Game Breakdown

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It’s the moment most of us have been waiting for since the NFL Draft (and Jets fans since the end of the Super Bowl), Opening Night in the NFL.  Normally the season opener needs no extra story lines, but in true Dallas Cowboys fashion, they leave us with almost more than we bargained for.  Let’s start with infamous Owner Jerry Jones.  Back in late July, at a “start of training-camp ceremony,” Jerry Jones landed his first blow of the season when he said, “Y’all should come to that stadium and watch us beat the New York Giants' ass."  Leave it to the unfiltered mouth of Jerry Jones to already take a shot at the defending Super Bowl Champion and NFC East Rival New York Giants.

The Giants are coming fresh off one of the greatest post-season runs in recent memory, while the Cowboys limp into the season with a slew of injuries.  In short, not the greatest time for Jerry Jones to be running his mouth; not to mention the Giants are 5-1 in their last six games vs. the Cowboys.

The Breakdown

Key Matchups

Cowboys Offensive-Line vs. Giants Pass Rush

The Cowboys once again ignored the offensive-line position at the top of the draft, having only drafted an offensive-lineman in rounds 1 or 2 just once in the past eight seasons. This year it once again leads to a piecemeal offensive line that sees a new O-Line coach in Bill Callahan come in with new starting LG and RG Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau (via profootballrosters.com).

The Giants pass rush pretty much speaks for itself when you hear the terrors up front: Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora and Chris Canty. Pierre-Paul was in on 10.7% of his Team’s Plays, which was best in the league for all defensive lineman.

Specific Matchup to watch: RT Doug Free vs. RE Jason Pierre-Paul

Spoiler Alert: This matchup could single handedly win the Giants the game. The Facts: Doug Free was on pretty much every negative list for an offensive lineman last year. (These stats and many others throughout the year in my writing will come from the great folks at FootballOutsiders.com, and their 2012 Football Outsiders Almanac). Doug Free ranked 13th in blown blocks and 12th in most penalties by an offensive player (not just lineman). If you want to know why this matchup is so important, and why the Giants have typically owned the Cowboys in the Tony Romo era, I give you another great stat: Last year Tony Romo ranked 25th among quarterbacks in the difference between DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value over Average) when facing pressure and when not facing pressure.  The Cowboys ability to keep the Giants D-Line at bay will once again determine the outcome of this game.

Giants Offensive-Line vs. Cowboys Run Defense

The Giants run blocking last year was absolutely pitiful. They ranked 29th in Adjusted Line Yards (which is a statistic created by FootballOutsiders.com that measures offensive-line performance) which actually isolates the Giants O-Line as the problem and not Ahmad Bradshaw; though Bradshaw was arguably as bad, as the Giants ranked 29th in 2nd-level Adjusted Line Yards (not his fault) and 29th in Open-Field Adjusted Line Yards (which is his fault, because it isolates what the running-back does in the open-field).

The Cowboys have a few stud run-stoppers, namely inside linebacker Sean Lee and DT Jay Ratliff (who is doubtful for the opener).

Scheming

New York Giants Offense – 11 personnel (1 RB 1 TE 3 WR) vs. Dallas Cowboys 11 personnel defense

The Giants last year were one of the best in football in 11 personnel, using it 44% of the time and recording a DVOA of 19.3% , this despite being predictable out of the single-back set, only running it 18% of the time in that formation. The Dallas defense was putrid against 11 personnel, recording a 2.3% DVOA (defensive DVOA is on a positive-bad, negative-good scale) and allowing 5.9 yards per play against it. This makes sense when you consider how terrible the Cowboys secondary was last year. They need to improve that this year.

Dallas Offense vs. the New York Giants 4-3 and 4-2-5 defenses

This should be a very intriguing battle as the Cowboys had great success last year against the two defenses the Giants ran the most. The Cowboys offense had poor numbers against the 3-4 last season, recording only 5.4 yards per play (-9.4% DVOA) while recording 6.2 yards per play (23.5% DVOA) and 6.6 yards per play (24.9% DVOA) vs. the 4-3 and 4-2-5 sets. The Giants run the 4-3 with impressive effectiveness, allowing only 4.7 yards per play (-1.4% DVOA). We should expect the Giants to run more of the 4-3 given the circumstances,since their most common defensive setup, the 4-2-5 (they run it 59% of the time), is one of the defenses that the Cowboys tend to do well against.

Injuries

Dallas Cowboys

Miles Austin-WR- Probable: Hamstring
Dez Bryant- WR-Questionable: Knee
Jason Witten- TE-Questionable/Doubtful: Spleen
Jay Ratliff- DT-Doubtful: Ankle
Mike Jenkins- FS-Doubtful: Shoulder

All of the above analysis about the Dallas offense vs. the Giants secondary could be rendered moot if Jason Witten or Dez Bryant can’t suit up, as Dallas is now thin at WR with the departure of Laurent Robinson to Jacksonville. Witten has been a model of health his entire career, thus the Cowboys depth behind him is lacking.

New York Giants

Terrell Thomas- CB- IR: Knee
Prince Amukamara- CB- Questionable/Doubtful: Ankle
Michael Boley- LB- Questionable/Probable: Hamstring
Hakeem Nicks- WR- Questionable: Foot

Once again, the analysis about the Giants secondary could be rendered moot if Amukamara cannot suit up for this game as Thomas’s injury has left them with a depth problem at cornerback. The Giants stud CB Corey Webster will need some help from his peers if Dez Bryant is able to suit up (especially if he is anywhere close to 100%).

Also, if Nicks can’t go, rookie WR Reuben Randle will be thrust into the #2 WR spot which will definitely create a drop-off for the Giants as far as offensive explosiveness.

Prediction: If Nicks can’t go, Giants win 14-13. If he does, Giants win 21-13.

Written by Joshua Kay exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. For more great fantasy football advice, follow Josh on twitter @RaysNut_1292


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