2012 Fantasy Football, Week 6 Sit ‘Em/Start ‘Em: Unconditional Christian Love
QB Start
Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings, Week 6: @ Washington, FantasyPros.com rank: 15, My rank: 8)
Breaking up is hard to do. My boyfriend Josh Freeman was my QB start recommendation in three of the first four weeks, but he consistently let me down. When Freeman was on bye last week, I slotted Ponder in as my QB start and he delivered with a nice 17 fantasy point day. And this week Ponder faces a Washington defense that has given up the most passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. So I have little choice but to go with Ponder again this week. If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with. Sorry Joshy-Washy, I’m leaving you for Ponder-Wander.
QB Sit
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts, Week 6: @ New York Jets, FantasyPros.com rank: 11, My rank: 17)
The other experts at FantasyPros.com don’t quite have Luck as one of the ten best QB plays in shallow ten team leagues this week, but even saying Luck is start-worthy in 12 team leagues seems too high. Luck is 24th in NFL QB rating, 25th in the ProFootballFocus.com QB rating (which is a little better than NFL QB rating), and 30th in completion percentage among QBs who have taken at least 50% of their team’s dropbacks. The only QB with a lower completion percentage? Mark Sanchez. So forgive for me hesitating to say Luck is startable in shallower leagues.
RB Start
CJ Spiller (Buffalo Bills, Week 6: @ Arizona, FantasyPros.com rank: 24, My rank: 13)
Arizona’s run defense is pretty stout. They allow the seventh fewest points to opposing running backs, and footballoutsider.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks have the Cards 7th best against the run as well. But CJ Spiller may be the best back in football right now. You may be scared off by the fact that he’s been a little banged up and the fact that Fred Jackson is always going to get some work. But Spiller is so talented that he should be able to produce despite all of that. Spiller’s runs have gone for 15+ yards 49.3% of the time this year. That’s the best mark in the league. Spiller averages 5.19 yards after contact per attempt. That’s also the best average in the league…..by over a yard and a half. Spiller is a freaking beast, and there’s no reason for him to be outside the top 20.
RB Sit
Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins, Week 6: vs. Minnesota, FantasyPros.com rank: 14, My rank: 21)
According to fantasy points allowed to RBs and the FO.com adjusted defense ranks, the Vikings have the second best run defense in the league. In the event RGIII isn’t able to go (he still had to undergo neurological tests as of this writing) or is ineffective, I’d like Morris even less because of a potentially misguided belief that mobile quarterbacks help out running backs.
WR Start
Jeremy Kerley (New York Jets, Week 6: vs. Indianapolis, FantasyPros.com rank: 40, My rank: 24)
According to footballoutsiders.com, Kerley is 21st this year in defense-adjusted yards above replacement. He’s ranked ahead of guys like Percy Harvin, Steve Smith, Wes Welker and Dwayne Bowe in that statistic. Not that it means Kerley is better than any of those guys. But it does mean that Kerley might be pretty good. Indy has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing receivers and is 21st against the pass in FO.com’s adjusted defense ranks. Real nice sleeper potential here. Kerley is worth a look as a flex play in ten team leagues and a starter in 12 team leagues.
WR Sit
Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers, Week 6: @ Houston, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 25)
As Fix contributor Josh Kay pointed out during our podcast this week, Green Bay’s offensive line struggles have made it harder for the Packers to throw the ball downfield. Josh also pointed out that Jordy is likely to draw the excellent Jonathan Joseph with Greg Jennings out of the lineup.
TE Start
Dennis Pitta (Baltimore Ravens, Week 6: vs. Dallas, FantasyPros.com: 13, My rank: 7)
Pitta is still third among tight ends in targets. And this week he faces a Cowboys team that is 28th against the tight end in FO.com’s adjusted defense ranks. I can’t sit a guy I expect to see a decent amount of targets in a good matchup.
TE Sit
Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers, Week 6: vs. Denver, FantasyPros.com rank: 8, My rank: 11)
Gates has been terrible this year and he’s facing a Denver defense that is 6th best against the tight end. You shouldn’t trust Gates until you see him actually do something this year.
Accountability for Week 5
QB Start: Christian Ponder – Good call. Ponder’s 17 fantasy points were tied for 10th best last week.
RB Start: BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Terrible call. Just 14 yards on nine carries for the law firm.
RB Sit: Ahmad Bradshaw – Absolutely horrendous call. He was easily the best RB with his 26 points last week.
WR Start: Malcolm Floyd – Good call. Floyd topped the century mark and was a top 20 receiver last week.
WR Sit: Steve Smith – Good call. Just four catches for 40 yards despite 13 targets.
TE Start: Scott Chandler – Bad call. Chandler also caught four for 40. And he fumbled.
TE Sit: Martellus Bennett – Good call. Just three for 30. An injury depressed his numbers as well.
Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings, Week 6: @ Washington, FantasyPros.com rank: 15, My rank: 8)
Breaking up is hard to do. My boyfriend Josh Freeman was my QB start recommendation in three of the first four weeks, but he consistently let me down. When Freeman was on bye last week, I slotted Ponder in as my QB start and he delivered with a nice 17 fantasy point day. And this week Ponder faces a Washington defense that has given up the most passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. So I have little choice but to go with Ponder again this week. If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with. Sorry Joshy-Washy, I’m leaving you for Ponder-Wander.
QB Sit
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts, Week 6: @ New York Jets, FantasyPros.com rank: 11, My rank: 17)
The other experts at FantasyPros.com don’t quite have Luck as one of the ten best QB plays in shallow ten team leagues this week, but even saying Luck is start-worthy in 12 team leagues seems too high. Luck is 24th in NFL QB rating, 25th in the ProFootballFocus.com QB rating (which is a little better than NFL QB rating), and 30th in completion percentage among QBs who have taken at least 50% of their team’s dropbacks. The only QB with a lower completion percentage? Mark Sanchez. So forgive for me hesitating to say Luck is startable in shallower leagues.
RB Start
CJ Spiller (Buffalo Bills, Week 6: @ Arizona, FantasyPros.com rank: 24, My rank: 13)
Arizona’s run defense is pretty stout. They allow the seventh fewest points to opposing running backs, and footballoutsider.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks have the Cards 7th best against the run as well. But CJ Spiller may be the best back in football right now. You may be scared off by the fact that he’s been a little banged up and the fact that Fred Jackson is always going to get some work. But Spiller is so talented that he should be able to produce despite all of that. Spiller’s runs have gone for 15+ yards 49.3% of the time this year. That’s the best mark in the league. Spiller averages 5.19 yards after contact per attempt. That’s also the best average in the league…..by over a yard and a half. Spiller is a freaking beast, and there’s no reason for him to be outside the top 20.
RB Sit
Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins, Week 6: vs. Minnesota, FantasyPros.com rank: 14, My rank: 21)
According to fantasy points allowed to RBs and the FO.com adjusted defense ranks, the Vikings have the second best run defense in the league. In the event RGIII isn’t able to go (he still had to undergo neurological tests as of this writing) or is ineffective, I’d like Morris even less because of a potentially misguided belief that mobile quarterbacks help out running backs.
WR Start
Jeremy Kerley (New York Jets, Week 6: vs. Indianapolis, FantasyPros.com rank: 40, My rank: 24)
According to footballoutsiders.com, Kerley is 21st this year in defense-adjusted yards above replacement. He’s ranked ahead of guys like Percy Harvin, Steve Smith, Wes Welker and Dwayne Bowe in that statistic. Not that it means Kerley is better than any of those guys. But it does mean that Kerley might be pretty good. Indy has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing receivers and is 21st against the pass in FO.com’s adjusted defense ranks. Real nice sleeper potential here. Kerley is worth a look as a flex play in ten team leagues and a starter in 12 team leagues.
WR Sit
Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers, Week 6: @ Houston, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 25)
As Fix contributor Josh Kay pointed out during our podcast this week, Green Bay’s offensive line struggles have made it harder for the Packers to throw the ball downfield. Josh also pointed out that Jordy is likely to draw the excellent Jonathan Joseph with Greg Jennings out of the lineup.
TE Start
Dennis Pitta (Baltimore Ravens, Week 6: vs. Dallas, FantasyPros.com: 13, My rank: 7)
Pitta is still third among tight ends in targets. And this week he faces a Cowboys team that is 28th against the tight end in FO.com’s adjusted defense ranks. I can’t sit a guy I expect to see a decent amount of targets in a good matchup.
TE Sit
Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers, Week 6: vs. Denver, FantasyPros.com rank: 8, My rank: 11)
Gates has been terrible this year and he’s facing a Denver defense that is 6th best against the tight end. You shouldn’t trust Gates until you see him actually do something this year.
Accountability for Week 5
QB Start: Christian Ponder – Good call. Ponder’s 17 fantasy points were tied for 10th best last week.
RB Start: BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Terrible call. Just 14 yards on nine carries for the law firm.
RB Sit: Ahmad Bradshaw – Absolutely horrendous call. He was easily the best RB with his 26 points last week.
WR Start: Malcolm Floyd – Good call. Floyd topped the century mark and was a top 20 receiver last week.
WR Sit: Steve Smith – Good call. Just four catches for 40 yards despite 13 targets.
TE Start: Scott Chandler – Bad call. Chandler also caught four for 40. And he fumbled.
TE Sit: Martellus Bennett – Good call. Just three for 30. An injury depressed his numbers as well.
4/7 good calls
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. If you have any further questions about this particular topic, feel free to ask him on Twitter (@TheRealTAL) or email him at [email protected].
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