2012 Fantasy Football, Week Two Sit ‘Em/Start ‘Em: Don’t Give Up On Michael Turner
In a ten team standard league, there are going to be ten QBs and TEs started and at least 20 RBs and WRs started each week. Each guy listed as a “start” here is ranked outside the top 10 or 20 at his position in the weekly expert consensus rankings over at FantasyPros.com. Each guy listed as a “sit” is going inside the top 10 or 20 at his position. So this is me trying to figure out where the consensus is wrong on a week-to-week basis.
QB Start
Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 2: @ New York Giants, FP.com rank: 18, My rank: 10)
Seriously, he’s going to be in this space every single week. For reasons that have been detailed more than once on this site, I think Freeman is severely underrated. And the Giants pass D looked, shall we say, uninspiring last week against Dallas.
QB Sit
Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins, Week 2: @ St. Louis, FP.com rank: 9, My rank: 15)
RGIII clearly proved that he has the ability to become a legitimate pro quarterback and that he could be a nice fantasy option for years to come with 320 yards and 2 TDs in his debut (24 fantasy points). But to move him into top 10 territory after one game seems a bit hasty. He’s still a rookie quarterback and only seven rookie quarterbacks have thrown for 3,000 yards since 1970.
But Cam Newton sort of changed the game last year when he became the first rookie quarterback to throw for more than 4,000 yards. And whether it’s fair or not, Newton and RGIII have been frequently compared. But the league caught up to Cam as his yards per game by month went from 337 to 276 to 233 to 200. There is a chance that there will be a similar adjustment period for defenses facing Griffin, but there is also a decent chance Griffin isn’t quite the player Cam was initially. After all, as mentioned, Cam is the only rookie quarterback with 4,000+ yards.
Moreover, the Saints defense is pretty weak. They allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing QBs last year and they were missing Jonathan Vilma and Tracy Porter. Not that Porter was great, but he wasn’t really replaced. This week the Redskins will face a Rams team that gave up a lot of points to running backs last year but not so many to quarterbacks. Part of that is a function of teams consistently being ahead of the Rams and not needing to throw the ball much. But whether it’s their pass defense or game scenario, quarterbacks generally don’t put up huge numbers against the Rams.
RB Start
Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons, Week 2: vs. Denver, FP.com rank: 24, My rank: 16)
The demise of Michael Turner may be a bit premature. Admittedly, 32 yards on 11 carries in week 1 gives some credence to the idea that Turners’ workload over the last four years is finally going to catch up with him. But you should wait more than one week before you give up on a guy who has averaged 4.44 yards per carry and double digit touchdowns in the last four years.
RB Sit
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers, Week 2: vs. DET, FP.com rank: 17, My rank: 26)
Gore looked good on Sunday. 112 yards on just 16 carries gave Gore an impressive average of seven yards per carry. But Kendall Hunter did pretty well with his nine carries (41 yards). Going forward that kind of 65-35 split seems likely to continue, and that kind of timeshare isn’t exactly ideal.
However, that concern over the timeshare doesn’t mean Gore isn’t a solid RB2 for the rest of the season. But because of the matchup San Fran has this week, Gore isn’t a solid RB2 option in week 2. The Detroit Lions gave up the tenth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last year, but they faced the toughest slate of opposing running backs. The rushing yards per game of Lions opponents in 2011 was the highest mark in the league. So they managed to be a top ten rushing defense despite facing a lot of good running teams.
WR Start
Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs, Week 2: @ Buffalo, FP.com rank: 25, My rank: 16)
Essentially a third of all of Dwayne Bowe’s targets in the last two years have been over 15 yards. The Jets completed 8 passes of 15+ yards last week against the same Bills defense that Bowe will face this week. It’s true that some of those Jets passes were short throws that went for longer gains thanks to YAC, but the point is that the Bills clearly showed some susceptibility to the big play and big plays are how Dwayne Bowe makes his living.
WR Sit
Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos, Week 2: @ Atlanta, FP.com rank: 14, My rank: 26)
Speaking of big plays, they’re kind of Thomas’ bread and butter as well. 37% of Thomas’ targets last year were 15+ yards. Unfortunately for Thomas owners, Atlanta didn’t give up a ton of big pass plays last year. The Falcons defense gave up the 9th lowest yards per pass completion last year and the 11th lowest adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.
TE Start
Owen Daniels (Houston Texans, Week 2: @ Jacksonville, FP.com rank: 16, My rank: 10)
Four catches on eight targets for 87 yards made for a nice week 1 for Daniels. This week he’ll face a Jacksonville team that was fourth-worst against opposing tight ends last year and who gave up 67 yards to Kyle Rudolph in his first professional game last week.
TE Sit
Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers, Week 2: vs. New Orleans, FP.com rank: 10, My rank: 13)
Average depth of target (aDOT) can tell us a lot of things, but two of its more useful purposes are identifying boom-or-bust type receivers and predicting regression. The regression factor is actually the best thing about aDOT, but for now let’s talk about how the boom-or-bust aspect makes Olsen a risky play.
Receivers with high aDOTs generally tend to be boom-or-bust guys you never feel safe starting in a given week and who aren’t great in PPR leagues. Just look at the top 3 WRs sorted by aDOT from 2011: Torrey Smith, Denarius Moore, Vincent Jackson. If you look at the TEs at the top of the aDOT list from last year you’ll see a lot of guys who don’t catch a ton of balls and are thus inconsistent fantasy performers from week to week. Names like Jermichael Finley, Anthony Fasano, and, you guessed it, Greg Olsen top that list.
Accountability from week 1
QB Start: Josh Freeman – Bad call. Freeman himself wasn’t bad, but the call was because the Bucs didn’t need Freeman to do much in a wire-to-wire win for Tampa where Carolina never got anything on offense.
QB Sit: Matt Ryan – Absolutely horrendous call. One of the worst calls ever. This call was so bad that I wouldn’t blame you if you decide to never read another word I write. Ryan wasn’t just the highest scoring QB of the week, he was the highest scoring fantasy player at any position….by seven points. To defend the indefensible, I didn’t know Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers weren’t going to play. But I should have known. And even if they had played, it wouldn’t have made enough of a difference anyway.
RB Start: Maurice Jones Drew – OK call. I wasn’t buying MJD being limited to third down work. Maybe Rashad Jennings’ knee injury had a lot to do with MJD getting more work, but the point is that he got the work and you want to use your first or second round draft pick whenever possible. He wasn’t quite RB2 worthy, but he was flex-worthy at 23rd among running backs.
RB Sit: Marshawn Lynch and Trent Richardson – Bad call and good call. Lynch got plenty of work (21 carries) despite concerns over back spasms and actually scored one more point than MJD. However, TRich managed only 39 yards in his first 19 career carries.
WR Start: Pierre Garcon – Great call. Garcon was 8th among wide receivers with 16 fantasy points. Oh, and he had to leave the game in the first quarter.
WR Sit: Jeremy Maclin – Terrible call. Maclin was a top ten fantasy receiver for the week.
TE Start: Dustin Keller – Another horrendous call. Keller caught one ball for seven yards. But his injury probably had a lot to do with it.
TE Sit: Brandon Pettigrew – Good call. Pettigrew finished 16th among tight ends with seven fantasy points in week 1.
3.5/9 good calls
QB Start
Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 2: @ New York Giants, FP.com rank: 18, My rank: 10)
Seriously, he’s going to be in this space every single week. For reasons that have been detailed more than once on this site, I think Freeman is severely underrated. And the Giants pass D looked, shall we say, uninspiring last week against Dallas.
QB Sit
Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins, Week 2: @ St. Louis, FP.com rank: 9, My rank: 15)
RGIII clearly proved that he has the ability to become a legitimate pro quarterback and that he could be a nice fantasy option for years to come with 320 yards and 2 TDs in his debut (24 fantasy points). But to move him into top 10 territory after one game seems a bit hasty. He’s still a rookie quarterback and only seven rookie quarterbacks have thrown for 3,000 yards since 1970.
But Cam Newton sort of changed the game last year when he became the first rookie quarterback to throw for more than 4,000 yards. And whether it’s fair or not, Newton and RGIII have been frequently compared. But the league caught up to Cam as his yards per game by month went from 337 to 276 to 233 to 200. There is a chance that there will be a similar adjustment period for defenses facing Griffin, but there is also a decent chance Griffin isn’t quite the player Cam was initially. After all, as mentioned, Cam is the only rookie quarterback with 4,000+ yards.
Moreover, the Saints defense is pretty weak. They allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing QBs last year and they were missing Jonathan Vilma and Tracy Porter. Not that Porter was great, but he wasn’t really replaced. This week the Redskins will face a Rams team that gave up a lot of points to running backs last year but not so many to quarterbacks. Part of that is a function of teams consistently being ahead of the Rams and not needing to throw the ball much. But whether it’s their pass defense or game scenario, quarterbacks generally don’t put up huge numbers against the Rams.
RB Start
Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons, Week 2: vs. Denver, FP.com rank: 24, My rank: 16)
The demise of Michael Turner may be a bit premature. Admittedly, 32 yards on 11 carries in week 1 gives some credence to the idea that Turners’ workload over the last four years is finally going to catch up with him. But you should wait more than one week before you give up on a guy who has averaged 4.44 yards per carry and double digit touchdowns in the last four years.
RB Sit
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers, Week 2: vs. DET, FP.com rank: 17, My rank: 26)
Gore looked good on Sunday. 112 yards on just 16 carries gave Gore an impressive average of seven yards per carry. But Kendall Hunter did pretty well with his nine carries (41 yards). Going forward that kind of 65-35 split seems likely to continue, and that kind of timeshare isn’t exactly ideal.
However, that concern over the timeshare doesn’t mean Gore isn’t a solid RB2 for the rest of the season. But because of the matchup San Fran has this week, Gore isn’t a solid RB2 option in week 2. The Detroit Lions gave up the tenth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last year, but they faced the toughest slate of opposing running backs. The rushing yards per game of Lions opponents in 2011 was the highest mark in the league. So they managed to be a top ten rushing defense despite facing a lot of good running teams.
WR Start
Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs, Week 2: @ Buffalo, FP.com rank: 25, My rank: 16)
Essentially a third of all of Dwayne Bowe’s targets in the last two years have been over 15 yards. The Jets completed 8 passes of 15+ yards last week against the same Bills defense that Bowe will face this week. It’s true that some of those Jets passes were short throws that went for longer gains thanks to YAC, but the point is that the Bills clearly showed some susceptibility to the big play and big plays are how Dwayne Bowe makes his living.
WR Sit
Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos, Week 2: @ Atlanta, FP.com rank: 14, My rank: 26)
Speaking of big plays, they’re kind of Thomas’ bread and butter as well. 37% of Thomas’ targets last year were 15+ yards. Unfortunately for Thomas owners, Atlanta didn’t give up a ton of big pass plays last year. The Falcons defense gave up the 9th lowest yards per pass completion last year and the 11th lowest adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.
TE Start
Owen Daniels (Houston Texans, Week 2: @ Jacksonville, FP.com rank: 16, My rank: 10)
Four catches on eight targets for 87 yards made for a nice week 1 for Daniels. This week he’ll face a Jacksonville team that was fourth-worst against opposing tight ends last year and who gave up 67 yards to Kyle Rudolph in his first professional game last week.
TE Sit
Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers, Week 2: vs. New Orleans, FP.com rank: 10, My rank: 13)
Average depth of target (aDOT) can tell us a lot of things, but two of its more useful purposes are identifying boom-or-bust type receivers and predicting regression. The regression factor is actually the best thing about aDOT, but for now let’s talk about how the boom-or-bust aspect makes Olsen a risky play.
Receivers with high aDOTs generally tend to be boom-or-bust guys you never feel safe starting in a given week and who aren’t great in PPR leagues. Just look at the top 3 WRs sorted by aDOT from 2011: Torrey Smith, Denarius Moore, Vincent Jackson. If you look at the TEs at the top of the aDOT list from last year you’ll see a lot of guys who don’t catch a ton of balls and are thus inconsistent fantasy performers from week to week. Names like Jermichael Finley, Anthony Fasano, and, you guessed it, Greg Olsen top that list.
Accountability from week 1
QB Start: Josh Freeman – Bad call. Freeman himself wasn’t bad, but the call was because the Bucs didn’t need Freeman to do much in a wire-to-wire win for Tampa where Carolina never got anything on offense.
QB Sit: Matt Ryan – Absolutely horrendous call. One of the worst calls ever. This call was so bad that I wouldn’t blame you if you decide to never read another word I write. Ryan wasn’t just the highest scoring QB of the week, he was the highest scoring fantasy player at any position….by seven points. To defend the indefensible, I didn’t know Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers weren’t going to play. But I should have known. And even if they had played, it wouldn’t have made enough of a difference anyway.
RB Start: Maurice Jones Drew – OK call. I wasn’t buying MJD being limited to third down work. Maybe Rashad Jennings’ knee injury had a lot to do with MJD getting more work, but the point is that he got the work and you want to use your first or second round draft pick whenever possible. He wasn’t quite RB2 worthy, but he was flex-worthy at 23rd among running backs.
RB Sit: Marshawn Lynch and Trent Richardson – Bad call and good call. Lynch got plenty of work (21 carries) despite concerns over back spasms and actually scored one more point than MJD. However, TRich managed only 39 yards in his first 19 career carries.
WR Start: Pierre Garcon – Great call. Garcon was 8th among wide receivers with 16 fantasy points. Oh, and he had to leave the game in the first quarter.
WR Sit: Jeremy Maclin – Terrible call. Maclin was a top ten fantasy receiver for the week.
TE Start: Dustin Keller – Another horrendous call. Keller caught one ball for seven yards. But his injury probably had a lot to do with it.
TE Sit: Brandon Pettigrew – Good call. Pettigrew finished 16th among tight ends with seven fantasy points in week 1.
3.5/9 good calls
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. If you have any further questions about this particular topic, feel free to ask him on Twitter (@TheRealTAL) or email him at [email protected].
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