2013 Fantasy FootballFantasy Football

2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: September 21, 2013

Saturday’s Fantasy Football Fix delivers news, notes, and nuggets along with Week 3 QB recommendations for DraftKings NFL Fantasy Games.

News, Notes and Nuggets

  • The Baltimore Ravens downgraded RB Ray Rice (hip) to doubtful for Sunday vs. Texans. Bernard Pierce will take over lead back duties in his first NFL start. Keep Rice on the bench; start Pierce with confidence as a RB2/flex.
  • Detroit Lions RB Reggie Bush (knee) practiced Friday and is officially questionable for Week 3. However ProFootball Talk’s Mike Florio reported late last night that the Lions may sit Bush as a precaution. This sets up to be a game-time decision so be sure to check his status before kickoff. If Bush is active, start him with the understanding that he may not play his full complement of snaps. Backfield teammate Joique Bell is a recommended start whether Bush plays or sits, though he could push RB1 value if Reggie is sidelined.
  • Washington Redskins WR Leonard Hankerson availability for Sunday is up in the air after he suffered a groin injury during practice on Friday.
  • Arizona Cardinals RB Rashard Mendenhall (toe) practiced on a limited basis Friday after sitting out earlier in the week. Barring a setback, Mendenhall looks good to go for Sunday’s road game against the Saints. Feel free to use him as a RB2 or flex. WR Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) also went through a limited practice Friday and is expected to play. Unless your roster is stocked with better options, it’s hard to sit Fitz in what could be a shootout in the Big Easy. TE Rob Housler (ankle) practiced this week and will make his 2013 regular season debut.
  • New Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram (toe) did not practice and will likely sit out versus Arizona. Pierre Thomas should see a few more touches in Ingram’s absence if you’re dealing with injury issues and need a low-end RB2 or flex.
  • The New England Patriots upgraded TE Rob Gronkowski (back) from doubtful to questionable versus Tampa Bay. Although the Pats are likely to keep him sidelined until Week 4, be sure to confirm his status Sunday.
  • Brian Hoyer will be under center in place of QB Brandon Weeden (thumb) when the Cleveland Browns take on the Vikings. WR Josh Gordon returns to action after his two-game suspension. It’ll be a three-headed RBBC for Cleveland this week in the aftermath of the Trent Richardson trade. Running back injuries may force you to use Willis McGahee, Chris “Silent G” Ogbonnaya or Bobby Rainey, but keep expectations in check. Rob Chudzinski confirmed that McGahee will see some playing time, however how many snaps and his role this week is unclear. Ogbonnaya is a desperation play in PPR leagues. He is serviceable in the passing game and is most familiar with the Browns pass-pro scheme.
  • Atlanta Falcons WR Roddy White (high-ankle sprain) is officially questionable for Week 3 after going through a limited practice Friday. He isn’t a recommended start until we see evidence that he’s healthy. WR Julio Jones (knee) was limited in practice all week; however he’s in your lineup no questions asked.
  • New York Jets WR Jeremy Kerley (concussion) returned to practice and is probable for Sunday versus Buffalo.
  • Indianapolis Colts WRs T.Y. Hilton (groin) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (shoulder) are listed as probable for Week 3’s showdown with the 49ers. I’m feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good about starting Hilton if he’s on your bench, much less so about DHB except in deeper formats.
  • San Francisco 49ers TE Vernon Davis (hamstring) didn’t practice this week after tweaking his hammy in Week 2’s dredging by the Seahawks. Davis is a must-start versus Indy if he’s active; however it looks like he’ll be a major game-time decision. Be sure you have a late-game Plan B if you decide to wait on VD.
  • While the Jacksonville Jaguars don’t have the option of waving the white flag of surrender against the Seattle Seahawks, RB Maurice Jones-Drew’s (ankle) fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate to sit him this week. MJD’s availability could come down to the wire Sunday, but in a matchup that could be as brutal as pairs of gladiators going toe-to-toe, fist-to-fist in Rome’s Coliseum, just say no. Frank Gore mustered a paltry 16 yards last week. Quadruple this advice as it applies to Jaguars backups Jordan Todman and Justin Forsett.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers TE Heath Miller (knee/leg) practiced all week and is expected to make his regular season debut Sunday night versus the Bears. How much playing time Miller’s sees is a big question mark. I wouldn’t consider using him this week, but monitor his status as a potential waiver wire pickup. Miller was a pleasant fantasy surprise last season, but he suffered a devastating injury and it may take time to get back to form. RB Le’Veon Bell (Lisfranc) practiced Friday and is listed as questionable on the team’s injury report. While the news about Bell’s progress is encouraging, fantasy owners may want to take a wait-and-see approach with him should he be active this week.

DraftKings Quarterback Recommendations

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Before we get to the QB recommendations for Week 3, here are the rules for the different NFL games DraftKings offers, and the basic way that quarterback score points:

  • Passing TD = +4PTs
  • 25 Passing Yards = +1PT (+0.04 PT/ per yard is awarded)
  • 300+ Yard Passing Game = +3PTs
  • Interception = -1PT
  • 10 Rushing Yards = +1PT (+0.1 PT per yard is awarded)
  • Rushing TD = +6PTs
  • 100+ Yard Rushing Game = +3PTs

Here are my Week 3 suggestions for quarterback options from three different tiers—expensive, midrange, and bargain values. While you should have no trouble finding a number of workable options this week, it’s always satisfying to lock in on players who can give you the biggest bang for your salary cap buck.

Expensive

Matthew Stafford,Detroit Lions ($9,100) @Washington Redskins—The Big Easy isn’t the only locale that could play host a shootout this weekend, as the Detroit Lions travel to Washington to take on the Redskins in FedEx Field. While Detroit pass-catchers lead the league in dropped passes (+10 percent), Stafford looks better than he did last season, thanks to more play-action and quick throws. He was 24-of-36 for 278 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2’s loss to the Cardinals. Stafford’s upside would be higher if a receiver other than Calvin Johnson and pass-catching backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell would emerge as a consistent weapon and occasional big-play threat. We could see Ryan Broyles for the first time this season, and he’s certainly a player to watch. In any case, Stafford should find success with the “usual suspects” against the Redskins quarterback-friendly defense. Washington’s secondary doesn’t do a great job of covering or tackling, so if you want to spend a bit more on your DraftKing’s QB this week, Stafford is an excellent option.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers ($8,800) vs. Indianapolis Colts—I sat Kaepernick last week in favor of Michael Vick, but I didn’t expect him to look struggle quite as much as he did against the Seattle Seahawks. That said, Kaepernick is supremely talented and I’m willing to bet on him to rebound in Week 3 at home against the Colts. Indy is a major step-down from Seattle’s pass rush and secondary, and I’d be surprised if they can successfully contain or eliminate Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis. This could also be a game in which Kaepernick uses his legs to rack up fantasy points. In Week 1, the Colts couldn’t stop Oakland’s Terrelle Pryor, who rushed for more than 100 yards in his first NFL start and then gave up 300-plus passing yards to Miami’s Ryan Tannehill last week. Kaepernick has the skillset to do both, which makes him a nice double-threat.  The only caveat to rolling with Kaepernick is the possibility that Davis sits out Sunday with a hamstring issue, so be sure to check his status.

Midrange

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers ($8,200) @ Tennessee Titans—I don’t know about you, but I’m shocked by how productive (real football and fantasy) Rivers has been under new head coach Mike McCoy. The Chargers O-line looked awful in the preseason and the offense in general fairly lackluster, but Rivers’ decisiveness and ability to get the ball out quicker masks a multitude of shortcomings. He’s also displayed connections with early season touchdown machine Eddie Royal and veterans Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd. Vincent Brown has been quieter than expected, but that could change with Floyd out with a neck sprain. Rivers completed 77 percent of his passes in San Diego’s 33-30 win over Philadelphia, while throwing for 419 yards, three touchdowns, and 30-plus fantasy points. He heads into Week 3 as fantasy’s No. 4 quarterback. While the Titans defense has looked much better under offseason hire Greg Williams, there is no reason to shy away from using Rivers while he’s hot, hot, hot.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,200) vs. Green Bay Packers—Admittedly, I’m not jumping out of my Jimmy Choos with excitement to endorse Dalton as a starter after his underwhelming performance against the Steelers last week. While he did enough to help the Bengals win (25/280/1), he also missed throws he should have made. That was then and this is NOW, and fortunately for Dalton, he takes on the Green Bay Packers in what stacks up—at least on paper—to be a much better matchup. The Packers have surrendered 718 net passing yards (third-most in NFL); six passing touchdowns (second-most); and 32 fantasy points (fourth-most) to opposing quarterbacks.  Moreover, Cincinnati will probably have to lean on Dalton and his arm to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s prolific pass attack.  Dalton has a plethora of talented weapons at his disposal to produce QB1 numbers this week provided he improves his accuracy.

 Bargains

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins ($6,300) vs. Atlanta Falcons—Tannehill was overshadowed by RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson last year, but two games into the 2013 season and he’s already making it harder for fantasy owners to ignore him. Though his stat line isn’t huge, he is a big reason why the Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start. In Miami’s surprising Week 2 win over Luck and the Colts, Tannehill completed 23-of-34 passes for 319 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Mike Wallace, who was missing-in-action in Week 1, caught nine balls for 115 yards and a score and tight end Charles Clay has emerged as a much-needed new weapon for Tannehill. The second-year signal caller has a tasty matchup this week against a Falcons defense that lacks a pass-rush and has been decimated by injuries to key players, including DE Kroy Biermann. Atlanta has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so between the matchup and overall positive vibes about Tannehill & Miami’s passing game, this is good week to punch Tannehill’s ticket.

Terrelle Pryor, Oakland Raiders ($6,000) @ Denver Broncos—Pryor isn’t the bottom of the barrel, but it sure feels like I’m scraping it with limited options in the under $6,500  range. I considered Buffalo’s E.J. Manuel however the Bills-Jets game feels like a low-scoring affair and that’s not fantasy-friendly at any price. Pryor and the Raiders appeared happy to let Darren McFadden carry the offense in Week 2; however that might not be possible on Monday night against Denver. Peyton Manning should have a ton of success in the air, and that could force Pryor to use his arm (such as it is). Playing from behind is conducive to garbage-time production, and while Pryor is very clearly a work-in-progress, the matchup plus his ability to produce with his legs and feet at least offers bargain-rate upside.

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2013 Fantasy Football: Week 3 Sunday Morning Chat