Fantasy Baseball Fallout: Kansas City Royals Trade Zack Greinke To The Milwaukee Brewers
Greinke Off To The NL
Even before Zach Greinke was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was an interesting player to evaluate from a fantasy perspective because last year he disappointed in the follow up season to his 2009 Cy Young campaign. He won only 10 games (16 in ’09), had a 4.17 ERA (2.16 in’09), and struck out 7.40 batters per nine innings (9.50 K/9 in ’09). He hardly met the expectations of fantasy baseball owners who drafted him in the late second/early third round.
However, a closer look at some of his peripheral stats on his Fangraphs page shows that he might have been a bit lucky in ’09 and not so much so in ’10. There is no need for me to go into detail about why his FIP, xFIP, and LOB% suggest that, just trust me. It is possible that with all other things being equal, Greinke’s numbers next season might look like they did in 2008, the year before he won the Cy Young: 13 wins, 3.47 ERA, 8.14 K/9 (with peripheral stats consistent with those numbers).
However, all other things are not equal. With a move to the National League and a better team, the analysis has to change somewhat. With respect to the latter, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee , and Rickie Weeks are a significant upgrade in run support compared to Billy Butler and the eight minor leaguers with which the Royals fill out a lineup card on a daily basis. Wins are certainly difficult to predict, but the added run support should make it easier for Greinke to get back to 15+ wins in Milwaukee.
As far as the move to the NL is concerned, it seems obvious to say that Greinke will benefit from being able to face pitchers regularly, but let me break down how much it actually helps. Last year, Greinke faced the ninth spot in opposing lineups 86 times in 33 starts. If you assume that a third of those nine-hole at-bats will be filled by pinch hitters in the NL, Greinke should see around 65 pitchers facing him that would have been position players had he remained in the AL. It would be almost impossible for me to calculate the collective batting average of nine-hole hitters in the AL last year, but it is safe to assume it was not anywhere near the sub-.150 mark compiled by NL pitchers in 2010. As a result, ERA and WHIP should see a little extra bump downwards, and it could mean as many as 20 extra strikeouts.
All that said to say that 14-16 wins, an ERA somewhere between 3.30 and 3.40, a WHIP around 1.20, and a K/9 between 8.50 and 9.00, seem like reasonable projections for Greinke in 2011. If you are willing to work with projections close to those, where does that place Greinke among starting pitchers on draft day? Numbers like that would have placed a pitcher in the top-15 to top-20 range last season. However, because of Greinke’s upside, I would be willing to place him more in the top-15 category.
A pitcher in the back half of the top-15 should probably be taken near the end of the sixth or early seventh round in ten team leagues. The problem is that Greinke has a lot of name value due to his Cy Young season, the constant discussion of his potential over the last half decade, and his high profile trade this offseason. Therefore, you may not see Greinke fall into the sixth or seventh rounds in your draft. If he does make it that far, you should be climbing in his window and snatching him up.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is wondering how well Milwaukee’s Best Light mixes with anti-depressants. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.
However, a closer look at some of his peripheral stats on his Fangraphs page shows that he might have been a bit lucky in ’09 and not so much so in ’10. There is no need for me to go into detail about why his FIP, xFIP, and LOB% suggest that, just trust me. It is possible that with all other things being equal, Greinke’s numbers next season might look like they did in 2008, the year before he won the Cy Young: 13 wins, 3.47 ERA, 8.14 K/9 (with peripheral stats consistent with those numbers).
However, all other things are not equal. With a move to the National League and a better team, the analysis has to change somewhat. With respect to the latter, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee , and Rickie Weeks are a significant upgrade in run support compared to Billy Butler and the eight minor leaguers with which the Royals fill out a lineup card on a daily basis. Wins are certainly difficult to predict, but the added run support should make it easier for Greinke to get back to 15+ wins in Milwaukee.
As far as the move to the NL is concerned, it seems obvious to say that Greinke will benefit from being able to face pitchers regularly, but let me break down how much it actually helps. Last year, Greinke faced the ninth spot in opposing lineups 86 times in 33 starts. If you assume that a third of those nine-hole at-bats will be filled by pinch hitters in the NL, Greinke should see around 65 pitchers facing him that would have been position players had he remained in the AL. It would be almost impossible for me to calculate the collective batting average of nine-hole hitters in the AL last year, but it is safe to assume it was not anywhere near the sub-.150 mark compiled by NL pitchers in 2010. As a result, ERA and WHIP should see a little extra bump downwards, and it could mean as many as 20 extra strikeouts.
All that said to say that 14-16 wins, an ERA somewhere between 3.30 and 3.40, a WHIP around 1.20, and a K/9 between 8.50 and 9.00, seem like reasonable projections for Greinke in 2011. If you are willing to work with projections close to those, where does that place Greinke among starting pitchers on draft day? Numbers like that would have placed a pitcher in the top-15 to top-20 range last season. However, because of Greinke’s upside, I would be willing to place him more in the top-15 category.
A pitcher in the back half of the top-15 should probably be taken near the end of the sixth or early seventh round in ten team leagues. The problem is that Greinke has a lot of name value due to his Cy Young season, the constant discussion of his potential over the last half decade, and his high profile trade this offseason. Therefore, you may not see Greinke fall into the sixth or seventh rounds in your draft. If he does make it that far, you should be climbing in his window and snatching him up.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is wondering how well Milwaukee’s Best Light mixes with anti-depressants. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Sports Blog, Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Trade Rumors, Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, National League, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, Brett Talley
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