Despite an abundance of injury concerns coming out of week 2, nicks and cuts weren’t the biggest takeaway of the weekend for this particular irrelevant blogger. Instead, there were several pass catchers who over-performed and now provide excellent opportunities to sell high.
Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers, Week 2: 84 yds, TD)
Nelson has at least 75 yards and a score in each of the first two weeks and has one of the premier quarterbacks in the league throwing him the ball. It’s obvious that Nelson is going to have some big weeks.
However, he’s also on a team with an elite wide receiver, one of the better tight ends in the league, and what looks to be a viable young running back. As a result, there are going to be weeks where Nelson doesn’t see the ball come his way all that often. Week 2 was one of those weeks asAaron Rodgers targeted Nelson only two times (one reception). Nelson’s owners caught a break because his one catch resulted in an 84 yard scoring play, but that type of bail out play isn’t likely to happen the next time he’s under-utilized.
Nelsonwill be boom or bust even though his game lines to this point might not make that clear. Therein lays your opportunity to sell high. Someone in your league probably believes Nelson is going to be a consistent fantasy contributor. Since you now know this not to be true, sell, sell, sell.
Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles, Week 2: 171 yds, 2 TD)
Let me be clear, Maclin is a much better receiver than Jordy Nelson. But the two are similar in the sense that they both play on teams where they aren’t the main option. Philly has another big play receiver, an excellent back who can both run it and catch it, as well as a quarterback who can run it himself. Not to mention the fact that Maclin’s stock drops dramatically if his injury prone quarterback isn’t on the field.
But after a big, big week Maclin’s stock is pretty high. Given the risk associated with Vick not playing and the additional boom or bust nature of playing on a team with multiple weapons, Maclin is a sell high candidate.
Devery Henderson (New Orleans Saints, Week 2: 103 yds, 1 TD)
At this point I’ve realized that I’m not advising you to sell high on receivers who had a big game last weekend. I’m essentially espousing my just-realized (and somewhat obvious) philosophy that it’s a bad idea to own guys who aren’t the main option on a team with a lot of options. And Henderson definitely fits into that category.
On the surface, it looks like you’d be crazy to sell on Henderson. He’s put up 100 yards and a score in each of the first two weeks. But when you look a little deeper, it becomes pretty obvious that Henderson isn’t going to produce consistently. In week 2 he only received three targets (on 66 New Orleans plays). Fortunately for his owners, Henderson caught all three balls thrown his way and one went for a long TD.
The other bit of bad news is that Robert Meachem has played a significant number of snaps more than Henderson in both games (stat courtesy of the awesome Mike Clay from ProFootballFocus.com). Fewer snaps, few targets, few weeks like the ones he’s had coming up in the future. Sell.
Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons, Week 2: 83 yds, 2 TD)
To a certain extent Gonzalez fits the mold of a lesser option on a team with several options, but he would fit better into an article discussing washed up players in whom you shouldn’t believe.
Thanks to the remnants of Gonzalez’s name value and his big week 2 numbers, you might be able to find someone who still believes he can be a top ten tight end. If so, don’t hesitate to deal him away.
Gonzalez’s performance was a function on Philadelphia’s excellent corners shutting down Atlanta’s wide outs which left Philadelphia’s less-than-excellent line backers to cover the aging tight end. It’s unlikely that another team will be able to cover up Roddy White and Julio Jones the way the Eagles did, and when those two are open they’ll receive most of Matt Ryan’s attention.
Gonzalez had his lowest reception total since 2002 last season and his lowest yardage total since he became a starter in 1998. He’s at the end of the road, not the edge of resurgence.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who thinksDexter McCluster, rather than Thomas Jones,is the best season long replacement for Jamaal EFFING CHARLES!!!
You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(February 5, 2011 – Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images North America)