The Rubber: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Week Five Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

Alan Harrison · May 4, 2011

Which one of these statements would have been more ridiculous on Saturday night?

Statement A: We are more likely to see Osama bin Laden killed before we see the ten year anniversary of 9/11.

Or…..Statement B: We are more likely to see Francisco Liriano throw a no-hitter before we will see his ERA reach ten.

The correct answer? Neither. The most ridiculous thing I’ve heard all week is that All-Star voting is already open.

No Protection Necessary – Guys I’d Like to Catch For

Bud Norris, Houston Astros (25%) – Talk about man-crushing. I am head over heels for Bud Norris. For starters, how can you not love a K/9 that is closer to 11 than it is to 10? And for a guy whose biggest bugaboo has been control, you have to love a walk rate of 3.03 (over a walk per nine less than his career average).

You know what else is 3.03? Norris’ ERA. Even better, so is his FIP. And his xFIP is actually under 3.

The early success has not been driven by luck, so it is up to Bud to keep the walks down and keep the success going. I obviously believe he will keep the success going, but, as an Astros fan, a part of me is still a little hesitant to throw Bud into the top 50. Even so, Norris is probably rosterable in ten team mixed leagues, and he is certainly a viable spot start option. And his next start at Pittsburgh is a hell of a matchup for an already good spot starter option.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee Brewers (17.4%) – The season is still young enough, and the sample size small enough, that a player can go from lucky to unlucky (or vice-versa) and from overrated to underrated in almost no time. For example, Ben Zobrist and Francisco Liriano went from buy-low candidates to sell-high candidates in less than a day. And Chris Narveson has followed a similar up and down path.

After two scoreless starts to begin the season, Narveson saw his ownership percentage skyrocket. After that, he had two more decent starts and his ownership percentage reached a plateau (he got very close to, if not over, 50%). He then got lit up against Cincinnati and struggled again in his next start against lowly Houston. As a result, Narveson’s ownership percentage has tumbled all the way back to 17.4%.

Likewise, all his peripheral numbers indicated he may have been on the lucky side during those first four starts, but the two bad starts now have his peripheral numbers at a point where they indicate he may be poised to turn things back in the right direction. The return to early season form may not come in his next start against the red-hot St. Louis offense, but after that Narv will get a nice matchup against either San Diego or Pittsburgh at home.

Practice Safe Spot Starting

Dustin Moseley, San Diego Padres (7.4%) – A lot of people have never heard of Moseley, so it may seem a bit obvious to include him in the “proceed with caution” portion of this article. But I just want to make sure nobody comes across the guy with a 1.63 ERA and 1.03 WHIP and decides that is a guy they have to add. Those numbers are purely driven by luck (.236 BABIP, 83.3% strand rate), and Moseley strikes no one out (3.72 K/9). However, Moseley does have a few things going for him.

He has displayed good control so far this season (2.09 BB/9), he has produced ground balls at a high rate (57.4%), and, most importantly, Petco is his home ballpark. For those reasons, Moseley is worth an add in NL-only leagues, and he is a spot starter in mixed leagues deeper than ten teams.

Doug Fister, Seattle Mariners (0.8%) – Fister is a lot like Moseley because he is owned in almost no leagues, he has a surprisingly low ERA, he has a great home ballpark that makes him somewhat relevant, and because it seems obvious that you should proceed carefully with a guy who almost no one owns.

The difference between the two is that Fister’s moderate success has not been driven so much by luck, and Fister posts respectable strikeout totals. That does not make him a spot start option in ten team leagues, but I would prefer Fister over Moseley as a spot starter in deeper mixed leagues.

Fister gets the ice-cold White Sox at home next, while Moseley has an only slightly less appealing matchup against Arizona at Petco.

The Top 50

Greinke is set to make his debut as a Brewer today. If he looks healthy and sharp in that first start, 20 will likely be the lowest ranking he sees from here on out.

Ugh. For whatever reason (or rather for no reason at all) I despise Matt Garza. It is just one of those personal bias things we all have with certain fantasy baseball players. But I cannot deny that Garza has been stupid good despite being stupid unlucky.

As for being stupid good, Garza has an ungodly K/9 of 11.87 to go along with a career low walk rate. And as far as being unlucky goes, he has a strand rate of 60% (71%-72% is average) and a BABIP of .400. All that has led to a 1.19 FIP and 1.98 xFIP. So as much as I hate to admit how good Garza has been, I really hate to admit that I think he could be even better. Ugh.

Out this week: Francisco Liriano

Yeah, not buying it. As has been pointed out by many, Liriano’s no-hitter was of the six walk and two strikeout variety. That is to say it was unimpressive in an Edwin Jackson kind of way. Moreover, it came against a White Sox team that is averaging 2.33 runs a game over the last 12 games.

On top of all that, one knock on Liriano has always been that he is the kind of guy who shows up to camp out of shape and then “plays himself into shape.” And I could not help but notice the rolls on the back of Liriano’s head and neck during his postgame interview.

Not the greatest argument, I know. But it is just one of many reasons I am not buying the no-hitter as a turning point for Liriano’s season. There is a good chance that someone in your league disagrees with me and thinks the no-hitter was a sign of good things to come. If you still own Liriano, I would recommend you find out who that person is and sell high on Liriano while you still can.

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com

(April 13, 2011 – Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images North America)

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who also has rolls on the back of his head and neck. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL

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The Rubber: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Week Five Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

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