Week 7 Fantasy Football, "Peckin' Order": Players On the Rise & Decline
RISE:
The most notable of the rises must be
Fred Jackson of the Buffalo Bills as he currently sits atop the pecking order for running backs in 2011. There has been no question to his value so far, but where the surprise comes from is his work from last season to this one. Jackson who only trails Darren McFadden in rushing with 601 yards through 6 weeks only had 927 yards rushing all of last season. Jackson is an obvious start each week, and his value will never be any higher. I would suggest holding on to him, but if you can sell high (and I mean mighty high, a kings ransom so to speak) pull the trigger.Last night as I was putting together my list of rising players,
Terrelle Pryor (NR) was a player I was going to list with the injury to Jason Campbell. Pryor wasn’t going to start in week 7, and probably wouldn’t see much playing time while the Raiders continue to win. But with Kyle Boller expected to start, who knows how long they would’ve kept that going. However, things changed this morning when the Oakland Raiders acquired Carson Palmer from the Cincinnati Bengals for two first round picks. Carson hasn’t played a game, thrown a pass, or even participated in a practice yet this season. Boller probably will start in week 7, but Palmer is sure to take over quickly. The acquisition of Palmer significantly increases Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK, 32)and Jacoby Ford (OAK, 89). Heyward-Bey has recorded at least 100 yards receiving, a score or 6 catches in each of the last three weeks. Palmer loved Ochocinco for so many years, and Heyward-Bey seems to fit that role.Another nice storyline this season is the rise and fall of the tight end position so far.
Brandon Pettigrew (DET, 5), Jake Ballard (NYG, 14), and Fred Davis (WSH, 13) are pushing up the ladder quickly. Pettigrew has put together some nice games as of late after beginning the season slowly. In the last four weeks Pettigrew has surpassed 12 fantasy points in each week, has scored in each of the last two games and even had an 11 catch 112 yard performance in week 3 vs. Minnesota. Jake Ballard has been a pretty nice replacement for Kevin Boss who went to Oakland this season. Ballard has had double digit fantasy points in each of the last three weeks, while recording either a touchdown or 70 yards in each of those games. With Chris Cooley missing some time in Washington, Fred Davis has really been able to shine. Davis only has one touchdown so far on the season, but he has reached 80 yards and 5 catches in 3 of the 5 games. Another tight end to quickly note is Dallas Clark (IND, 17). Clark has been pretty dismal so far this year, but he recorded his 2nd touchdown of this season Sunday and recorded 6 catches for the first time this season. If Painter can continue to look his way, Clark can find himself back in the top 10 of fantasy tight ends by seasons end.Some other notable players on the rise,
Andy Dalton (CIN, 19) has a QB Rating of 85 and over 1300 yards passing through 6 weeks. Jerome Simpson (CIN, 39) is benefiting from Dalton’s rise and caught 103 yards in week 6. Greg Little (CLE, 71) has recorded 6 catches and 50 yards in each of the last two weeks. Percy Harvin (MIN, 26) caught 2 passes for 35 yards once Christian Ponder came into the game Sunday night, and Marques Colston (NO, 53) has 13 catches for nearly 200 yards and a score since returning from injury and that includes a 1 catch 8 yard performance three weeks ago.FALL:
As players rise, others must fall, that is just how it works. The most notable of the drops must be
Marcedes Lewis (JAC, 40). Lewis finished fourth in 2010 among tight ends with 177 fantasy points and tied the league with the most touchdowns by tight ends with 10. Through 6 games, Lewis has yet to reach double-digit fantasy points something he only did 6 times in all of last year. Lewis hasn’t reached the end zone, hasn’t caught more than 3 passes, and hasn’t gained more than 38 yards in a single game. Lewis should be on waivers in most leagues until Blaine Gabbert can figure out how to get the ball to him more efficiently.Another disappointing tight end is Green Bay’s
Jermichael Finley (GB, 7). Finley who is still ranked in the top 10 so far has had three games of single digit fantasy points, and most of his points on the season come from his 3-touchdown performance in week 3. Since then Finley hasn’t been able to find the end zone and has only gained more than 28-yard mark once. Finley is falling, but he is still a guy you need to keep on your roster as his talent is way to high to release. If you can make a deal sending Finley off at a decent price I would do it right away. For now, rising tight ends like the ones I mentioned above should start above Finley.Some surprising players who are falling down the pecking order include
Matt Ryan’s top wide out Roddy White (ATL, 13) who only recorded 2 catches for 21 yards in week 6. While that may be an aberration it is something to keep an eye on if Ryan doesn’t improve. Running back committees like those in Carolina and Washington are unbelievably frustrating. DeAngelo Williams (CAR, 34), Ryan Torain (WSH, 54), Tim Hightower (WSH, 28) and Roy Helu (WSH, 51) shouldn’t even see playing time. Jonathan Stewart (CAR, 19) should be the only back in either system getting significant time on your fantasy teams as a deep league or flex option. Watch wide outs Santana Moss (WSH, 31), Victor Cruz (NYG, 17), and Denarius Moore (OAK, 45), carefully. Moss has less than 40 yards receiving in two straight weeks, Cruz looks to have fallen to the 3rd option, and maybe even the 4th with the emergence of Ballard in New York, and Moore has only one catch for 9 yards in the previous two games.Prominent Players to Watch:
Cedric Benson (CIN, 20) found the end zone for the second time this season and only the third time in his last 10 games. Benson is still a low end RB2 but if he can score more often then he has, he could creep up quickly.
Cam Newton (CAR, 2) had a relatively poor outing against an extremely poor secondary this week. We may have been spoiled with his previous weeks but 237 yards and 0 scores through the air is not something we want to see repeatedly.
Wide out Brandon Lloyd (STL, 60) was dealt to the Rams this week, where familiar coach Josh McDaniels is running the offense. There shouldn’t be much of a learning curve here but keep a close eye on the situation.
Wide outs, Anquan Boldin (BAL, 30), James Jones (GB, 37), and Jordy Nelson (GB, 12) are rising, but there needs to be more consistent play out of them to be considered high end WR2.
Injured halfbacks are opening doors for others to step up and show what they have. DeMarco Murray (DAL, 76), Montario Hardesty (CLE, 46) are getting their opportunities sooner rather than later as Felix Jones (DAL, ankle) and Peyton HIllis (CLE, hamstring, Madden curse) may be sidelined for a few weeks. While those guys are getting time because of others getting hurt Rashard Mendenhall (PIT, 26) is coming back from injury extremely strong, he had a great game against a pretty good run defense this weekend and should continue that trend going forward.
Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
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Rankings and stats are as of Week 6 games.
Number in parenthesis is fantasy rank at players position.
(October 1, 2011 – Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America)